FanPost

Making the Case for Brett Cecil as Closer

Aside from his best year in 2010, Brett Cecil was just another mediocre starting pitcher in the Blue Jays organization. The 38th overall pick in the 2007 Amateur Draft, Cecil’s fate appeared to be a swingman going back and forth between AAA and the majors before inevitably hitting the waiver wire. After starting his 2012 season in New Hampshire, he found himself in the major league rotation in June after most of it was depleted. In nine starts, Cecil threw 50.1 innings, posting a brutal 5.72 ERA (5.46 FIP) while giving up almost two home runs per nine innings. He was optioned to Las Vegas at the beginning of August, before rejoining the team as a September call-up. In that stint, Cecil made 11 appearances out of the bullpen, and although his ERA barely moved, he had much better peripherals, posting a 3.09 FIP, while not giving up a home run.

He made the bullpen out of spring training the following year and, well, the rest is history. He made the all-star game in 2013, and was one of Toronto’s most reliable relievers in 2014. He’s set to make $2.475M this year.

With the departure of Casey Janssen, the coveted closer’s role is vacant, and much of the discussion this off-season is centred on filling it. The discussion currently is settled around two players — Brett Cecil and Aaron Sanchez.

Personally, I want to see Sanchez in the rotation. That’s where he’ll (hopefully) spend most of his career and having another guy throwing gas with movement is something that every rotation can make room for. That would make Brett Cecil the almost automatic choice and that’s definitely not a bad thing.

He’s been the best pitcher out of the bullpen the last two years. Among Blue Jays relievers who have pitched at least a combined 50 innings since 2013, Cecil has the best FIP (2.63, well ahead of runner-up Janssen, 3.39) and best fWAR (+2.2, ahead of Janssen’s +1.5).

In order to be a successful closer, you need to have a reliable breaking pitch that you can throw for strikes to complement your fastball, you need to be able to strive under pressure and you need to be able to strike guys out.

Let’s start by looking at Cecil’s curveball, the pitch that saved his career. It’s without a doubt his go-to pitch; last year he used it more often than his fastball. In 2014, a whopping 43.5% of his total pitches were curveballs, and that number jumped up to 56.4% in two strike counts. Despite the amount of use the pitch got, batters still couldn’t touch it. Coming in at an average velocity of 85.13 miles per hour, Cecil generated an impressive 57.22% whiff per swing rate on the pitch. When hitters put the pitch in play, they hit for a .175 average and .216 slugging.

For comparisons sake, of all pitchers who threw the pitch at least 200 times in 2014, Cecil’s was the fifth fastest, generated the highest whiff per swing rate. His 41.4 put away % was also the highest, and his .031 ISO against was ninth highest. He had impressive command of the pitch, with 36.5% of his curveballs falling in the zone. According to FanGraphs, when using linear weights to calculate a change in run expectancy after each pitch, Cecil’s curveball was by far the best among fellow relievers, saving over nine runs.

This .gif from @dantoman from April 2013 shows Cecil’s ability to drop the hook in for a strike, completely freezing Asdrubal Cabrera. It really is a thing of beauty. cecil.0.0.gif

Lots of discussion on Twitter and heard on the radio talks about Brett Cecil not having the "make up" to be a closer. It goes without saying that closers have to pitch in high leverage situations quite often. When you look at the relievers with the highest pLI in 2014, you see Trevor Rosenthal, Craig Kimbrel, Jonathon Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Huston Street, David Robertson, all closers, all at the top of the list. Cecil’s average pLI was 1.42, which is right in the middle between low and high leverage. In 2014, he threw 16.1 innings in high leverage situations, posting a dazzling 1.42 FIP, and posting 15.98 K/9. Albeit, that’s a pretty small sample size. If you look at his career numbers in high leverage situations, he has a 2.85 FIP and a 10.19 K/9 rate, respectable totals. Still a pretty small sample, but such is the case with relievers.

Another thing I’ve always noticed and admired about Cecil is how he’s always composed. He never seems flustered and got himself out of a few jams in 2014. One example that I remember pretty vividly was last September against the Rays, when he pitched the bottom of the ninth in a 0-0 game. He got himself into a jam, with runners on the corners and no outs, then the bases loaded with one out, he struck out Logan Forsythe and Sean Rodriguez to escape the inning. The Blue Jays would go on to win when Colby Rasmus hit a pinch-hit home run in the top of the tenth.

Finally, he can strike guys out. Relievers live in small sample sizes. In 50 innings, a pitcher’s batted ball luck never gets a chance to even out. Limiting the amount of balls in play is crucial to their success, and Cecil’s 12.83 K/9 mark did just that, placing tenth in the league among relievers last year. He finds himself in some good company, with Sean Doolittle and Greg Holland posting comparable numbers. When the ball is in play, Cecil has a respectable 53.8 GB%.

If Brett Cecil closes, he won’t be the next Mariano Rivera. He’s not going to throw 98 with movement. He might still have a high walk rate. However, he'll be able to get batters out with his electric curveball, be able to keep the ball out of play and be able to handle the stresses of pitching in high leverage situations. He'll be a reliable arm in the back of the bullpen. And given the current uncertainties, reliability might be a blessing in disguise.

Editor's Note: This is a FanPost written by a reader and member of Bluebird Banter. It was not commissioned by the editors and is not necessarily reflective of the opinions of Bluebird Banter or SB Nation.