Recapping 2014
As a team last year, the Blue Jays finished in the bottom third in the majors in ERA both overall and from starters only. However, the rotation did post an ERA of 3.96 while as a team, a 4.00 ERA was posted. Not much to be noted there, but the rotation fared slightly better in this measure.
In the hitter-friendly AL East, the Rays were the only team to finish in the top 10 team rankings in starter ERA and the Orioles were the only other AL East team to finish in the top half in the majors. WAR paints a very different picture however, as the Jays posted a solid 13.1 WAR, good for 7th in the majors and finishing just below the Rays and Yankees. This measure shows that Blue Jays rotation was actually quite steady last year, and (as we fans know all too well), compensated for the shortcomings of the bullpen several times. For those of you unfamiliar with how pitcher WAR works, I'd like to relate you here.
With that being said, most fans are still hoping for the team to improve on its ERA total if it is to become a serious playoff contender, and the additions of Donaldson and Martin (and the "losses" of Melky and Rasmus) should help this cause defensively.
The Present
Fast forwarding from September to now, the rotation is composed of the same core group. J.A. Happ was traded, Marco Estrada was traded for, and Johan Santana was signed as free agents. Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez will likely receive a lot more consideration for the starting rotation this year than they did in 2014. With Dickey, Stroman, Buehrle, and Hutchison essentially locked in, two questions are:
- What can we expect from all of these players in 2015?
- Who makes the most sense as the 5th starter?
Let's examine each player in order to answer these two questions.
R.A. Dickey
After a tumultuous debut year for the Blue Jays in 2013, Dickey fared better in 2014 for the Blue Jays. He surpassed 200 innings for the fourth straight season, trimmed his ERA by 0.5 (from 4.21 in 2013 to 3.71 in 2014), significantly improved his HR/9 from 1.40 to 1.09, and reduced his FB% by approximately 3% while increasing his GB% by 2%.
While these figures all show how he improved last year, others show that his ERA was likely a little better than it should have been and he is a candidate for some regression this year. The increase in FIP Dickey experienced from 2013 to 2014 was from 4.58 to 4.32. This is still improvement, but not to the degree ERA would suggest. His 2014 FIP xFIP, and SIERA were all at least 0.37 higher than his ERA, while his FIP- only improved by 2 in 2014, and was still below what is considered league average. His WAR was actually the same in both 2013 and 2014, standing at 2.1.
All things considered, I expect some regression to occur in 2015. While regression is likely, I find it hard to believe Dickey's ERA will regress all the way to his FIP because the batted ball metrics have shown that the reduction in HRs is real, and the long ball was a large part of Dickey's struggles in 2013. Furthermore, the improved defense should help him a fair amount. Two interesting things to watch will be Russell Martin's ability to catch Dickey (and what that could mean for Josh Thole's roster spot) and whether or not John Gibbons is less patient with giving Dickey the hook this year, as 29% of you (at the time this article was written) have already shown extreme displeasure with.
2015 Projection: 195 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.8 WAR
Mark Buehrle
Continuing on the topic of veteran starters who improved in their second year on the team, add Mark Buehrle to that list. Buehrle continued his stunning run of durability with his 14th straight season of 200+ IP. What's even more incredible are his 3.39 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 3.5 WAR. Simply put, he was phenomenal last year and if it weren't for Marcus Stroman, he would have been the talk of the town. Like Dickey, Buehrle's key difference between 2013 and 2014 was his prevention of the long ball, allowing just 0.67 HR/9. Another thing which likely benefitted him was his change in approach. Buehrle's best years have all come when his K/9 sat between 5 and 6. In 2013, he set a career-high in K/9 (excluding his first major league season where he pitched 50 innings) with a mark of 6.14. This number came back down to 5.30 in 2014. For most pitchers, setting a new career-high in K/9 is a good thing, but then again, Mark Buehrle is not "most pitchers."
For 2015, Buehrle will almost certainly regress, the only question remains how much. His SIERA sat at 4.32 last year, though SIERA has never been kind to Buehrle as a pitcher who does not strike out many batters. The main reason I expect Buehrle to regress is because of the homers. I really can't see a guy like him, who allows so much contact, pitches half his games at the Rogers Centre, and had a FB% of 33.8%, maintaining such a low HR/9. Look for his HR/9 to rise to just over his career average of 0.99 (and with a HR/FB% of around 10%). His xFIP last year sat at 4.09, and xFIP assumes a 10.5% HR/FB, so a number just below that is probably fair to expect. Though he won't be putting up numbers like he did last year, expect the same old Buehrle to be back out there in 2015; the one who will surely eat 200+ innings, play Gold Glove caliber defense, and serve as a mentor to the young pitchers in the Jays rotation (whom I will address momentarily).
2015 Projection: 205 IP, 4.02 ERA, 2.8 WAR
Marcus Stroman
Ah, there's the name everyone was waiting for. He who provided the Blue Jays with the most exciting 130.2 IP of baseball in 2014. He who posted a 3.3 WAR in those 130.2 IP of baseball in 2014. I really don't think I have to sell Stroman to any of you. Really, if you're reading this, you should know what he's capable of. He's got six developed pitches (and he doesn't even really need his changeup) and really found his sinker as the year progressed. The fact that a player that young and in his first big-league stint was both smart enough, confident enough, and talented enough to make that adjustment in-season speaks volumes about Stroman. He had a better second-half adjusted FIP and xFIP than Max Scherzer and Jordan Zimmermann. For those of you with a working knowledge of PITCHf/x, this is a must-read. For those of you who don't just looking at the GIFs should serve as understanding enough.
His stats alone from last year are impressive, and his stats as a starter from last year are even more impressive. But what is most impressive is his ability. The only thing he hasn't demonstrated is an ability to pitch massive innings, but does that even matter when he can post a 3.3 WAR in just 130.2? Personally, I think they should just manage his innings throughout the season and not wear him down too much, because 170-180 innings of quality pitching are far more valuable than potentially ruining your quality young arm.
2015 Projection: 175 IP, 3.45 ERA, 4.0 WAR
Drew Hutchison
I feel like Drew Hutchison doesn't get talked about as much as he probably should. Yes, he was very up and down last year, but the advanced metrics show there is lots of room for growth and reason to believe his peripherals should be better in 2015. I found that he was screwed over a few times by Gibby not giving him the hook quickly enough, similarly to Dickey. But anyway, his sabermetrics were all quite solid. His FIP and xFIP were both around 3.80, his FIP- was 98, and his SIERA was 3.59. He also experienced a decent velocity uptick in most of his pitches from 2013.
Perhaps the most interesting thing about Hutchison was the change he made to his slider. Sometime in August, he tinkered with it, trading some velocity for more break on the pitch, and these were the results:
Through August 17
- 122 ERA-
- 104 FIP-
- 13% K-BB
- 80% Contact
From August 24
- 84 ERA-
- 78 FIP-
- 26% K-BB%
- 70% Contact
The only issue I see with him is his control, as it would be nice to see him lower that 2.92 BB/9, but hopefully being another year removed from his TJ Surgery will help him out in that area. He has already shown he can handle innings, going 185 last year. His profile is also strikingly similar to that of Tyson Ross, who posted a 2.81 ERA and 3.24 FIP for the Padres last year in 195 innings. While those numbers are too lofty to expect from Hutchison right now, especially considering he pitches in a much tougher environment, it serves as a reference to what his ceiling might look like if he continues to improve. It's pretty tough to make a projection on Hutch for 2015, as I could see his ERA being anywhere between 3.50-4.50. Nonetheless, he is a guy who I am quite optimistic about for now and the future, though I will not try to be too biased in my projection.
2015 Projection: 190 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR
The 5th Rotation Spot
Here is where the real debating begins. Johan Santana is not expected to be ready for Opening Day and with his recent injury history and age considered, I think the team would be happy to get any positive production from him this year. This is going to be a Spring Training battle so it's hard to say who will get the spot from now, but here are a few ideas.
It comes down to Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez, and Daniel Norris. Estrada profiles very poorly in the AL East and the Rogers Centre because he is a flyball pitcher who is no stranger to having problems keeping the ball in the park. He's probably best suited as a swingman. Aaron Sanchez looked very sharp in the bullpen last year, but I have doubts about whether or not he translates as a good starter just yet, I feel like the stamina isn't quite there yet. He could end up in the bullpen if he doesn't make the rotation, and I honestly feel like that is the best option for his development and for the team. We really haven't done anything to address the bullpen and Sanchez could even be the closer. Even if he's not closing, he'd still be a valuable piece to a bullpen that struggled for most of last year after being overworked in 2013. Norris flew up from High-A all the way to the majors in 2014. In his limited MLB action, he struggled with control and preventing the long ball. One thing he definitely showed last year in the minors is his strikeout ability, posting a K/9 of over 10 in all minor leagues. AA has already said that if Norris does not claim the 5th spot, he will be sent to Triple-A to start, so it's clear the team views him as a definite starter. We could really use another lefty in the rotation.
In conclusion, I think it's hard to get a gauge on who the 5th starter will be at this point, but the best case scenario in my opinion is having Estrada as the swingman, Sanchez as the closer, and Norris as the 5th starter. Hopefully Norris has the type of Spring Training needed to secure the spot.
Conclusion
The Blue Jays rotation has a solid mix of steady veterans and promising youth for this year. Although their ERA wasn't much to write home about last year, the rotation was actually a "plus" in 2014, all things considered. They will have a chance to build on that this year with Stroman on the rise and a better team (defensively and all around) supporting them. The 5th starter battle is interesting and be sure to follow it through Spring Training.
And if you actually read all that, you get to see Edwin Encarnacion admire his home run against Yu Darvish.