Last week we looked at what a fair value contract extension for Jose Bautista from the Blue Jays' perspective would look like in light of the news he made and the terms he allegedly wanted. Edwin Encarnacion is in the similar position as Bautista, under contract for 2016 and a free agent after the year, but 2016 represents just his age-33 season. Encarnacion has indicated a willingness to discuss an extension (with talks apparently ongoing), but wants it done before the season begins. So let's do the same for Encarnacion.
One difference in this exercise is that whereas Bautista's terms were reasonably well known, we don't really have a good idea with Encarnacion, beyond that he'd like to be a Blue Jay for life. Obviously, more years are better, but there's a tradeoff in terms of annual salary as well. So for Encarnacion, we'll look at two possible extensions, for three (ages 34 to 36) and five years (through age 38) beyond 2016.
At the outset, we can perform the same exercise that Dave Cameron performed with Bautista to come up with a quick estimate. Steamer projects Encarnacion for 2.6 WAR in 2016, and ZiPS 3.1 WAR (almost identical rate of offensive production). Splitting the difference, and using the same aging expectation, we get the following: 2.8 WAR (2016), 2.4 (2017), 1.8 (2018), 1.4 (2019), 0.8 (2020), 0.1 (2021). For the three year beyond 2016, Encarnacion would be expected to produce 5.5 WAR, and 6.2 WAR over five year. Applying a rough average of $9-million per WAR would would work out to a 3-year deal at $50-million, or a 5-year deal at $60-million. Intuitively, this feels light for an elite hitter on the FA market, and that's before any discount to reflect locking in the money now.
Over the last four years (age 29 to 32) following his mid-2011 breakout, Encarnacion has been the 7th best hitter in baseball, posting a 149 wRC+ with 151 home runs in 2,431 plate appearances. That 149 wRC+ is actually slight ahead of Bautista (146) over that timeframe and perhaps even more remarkable is the consistency, with each season between 146 and 151 wRC+. Going back a fifth year to his breakout year brings his wRC+ down to 143, but his second half 2011 wRC+ of 141 is much in line with the last four years, so it doesn't really make sense to include that.
Therefore, the screen for comparable players to Encarnacion is based on players with a minimum of 1,500 plate appearances in their age 29 to 32 seasons, with a wRC+ within 15 points of Encarnacion on either side. There's 67 such players post-WWII, and for obvious reasons there's a lot of overlaps between the Encarnacion and Bautista comp sets.
As with Bautista's comp set, I removed a handful of players who were already clearly in decline by the end of their age 32 season. Further, because Encarnacion has already been made into a full 1B/DH, and his body limits him to the far end of the defensive spectrum going forward, I also removed about a dozen infielders and premium defensive outfielders (eg, Jim Edmonds). That left a group of 50 comparable players. As before, summary data is below in a table, and all the players are listed at the bottom:
Age 29 to 32 seasons | Age 33 season | Age 34 to 36 seasons | Age 34 to 38 seasons | ||||||||||||||||
Player | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | |||
Encarnacion | 2,431 | 151 | 149 | 16.3 | |||||||||||||||
Average | 2,428 | 114 | 147 | 19.2 | 571 | 24 | 136 | 3.6 | 1,420 | 54 | 125 | 6.8 | 1,889 | 71 | 121 | 8.4 | |||
25th percentile | 2,252 | 90 | 139 | 16.8 | 530 | 16 | 126 | 2.5 | 1,170 | 27 | 108 | 2.3 | 1,202 | 38 | 107 | 2.3 | |||
Median (50th) | 2,493 | 109 | 146 | 18.9 | 617 | 25 | 139 | 3.9 | 1,598 | 51 | 125 | 6.5 | 2,079 | 60 | 123 | 6.4 | |||
75th percentile | 2,619 | 134 | 156 | 20.6 | 669 | 29 | 150 | 4.9 | 1,772 | 81 | 140 | 10.0 | 2,522 | 108 | 132 | 13.0 |
Once again, on average the group is a very good comparison for Encarnacion, with almost identical playing time and very similar offensive production. They didn't have as much power, but had a little more overall value, which would mostly be defensive differences.
What's most notable is their age 33 seasons. On average, they were worth 3.6 WAR, which is well above Encarnacion's Steamer and ZiPS projection, and the median is a little higher. In terms of wRC+, the projections are bang on the group average wRC+ (136), with only slightly less playing time. So those WAR projections look light, if we substituted a 3.6 WAR for 2016 into the above model, we'd get 7.8 WAR on a three-year extension ($70-million) or 10.5 WAR on a five year extension ($95-million).
But looking at the three and five year group averages, that's too optimistic. The similar player group only averaged 6.8 WAR and a 125 wRC+ over the next three years, with a similar median. The five-year WAR average is 8.4 WAR, so 1.6 WAR higher, but the important note here is that the median is roughly the same as three years, so it's driven by a few players aging really well. These numbers would work out to a three year extension of $60-million, or five years around $75-million, though again before a potential discount for reducing risk.
It appears that the similar players to Encarnacion age really poorly in terms of WAR. However, their offensive production and playing time hold up reasonably well, so it may be about losing defensive value, and Encarnacion has already bottomed out there, with -65 "defensive" runs by FanGraphs over the past four years. The group of 50 averaged only -31, as it included a number of players who, despite limited positional value, were good defenders and not your prototypical slugger (for example, John Olerud and Keith Hernandez). So to see if there's a significant difference in aging, I divided the group of 50 into the best 25 defenders (average -11 runs) and worst 25 defenders (average -40 runs), the latter more representative of Encarnacion.
25 best defenders:
Age 29 to 32 seasons | Age 33 season | Age 34 to 36 seasons | Age 34 to 38 seasons | ||||||||||||||||
Player | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | |||
Average | 2,427 | 108 | 147 | 20.8 | 548 | 23 | 136 | 3.7 | 1,421 | 53 | 124 | 7.7 | 1,914 | 70 | 119 | 9.4 | |||
25th percentile | 2,241 | 87 | 139 | 18.7 | 493 | 14 | 127 | 2.8 | 1,326 | 26 | 108 | 3.2 | 1,326 | 39 | 106 | 3.1 | |||
Median (50th) | 2,414 | 107 | 145 | 19.7 | 608 | 22 | 135 | 3.9 | 1,604 | 52 | 125 | 8.9 | 2,056 | 71 | 123 | 9.4 | |||
75th percentile | 2,624 | 122 | 153 | 21.9 | 668 | 29 | 146 | 4.9 | 1,746 | 80 | 139 | 10.1 | 2,559 | 105 | 129 | 13.4 |
25 worst defenders:
Age 29 to 32 seasons | Age 33 season | Age 34 to 36 seasons | Age 34 to 38 seasons | ||||||||||||||||
Player | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | |||
Average | 2,430 | 119 | 148 | 17.5 | 595 | 25 | 135 | 3.4 | 1,419 | 55 | 125 | 5.9 | 1,863 | 73 | 123 | 7.3 | |||
25th percentile | 2,327 | 96 | 142 | 14.8 | 594 | 17 | 123 | 2.4 | 1,165 | 30 | 109 | 2.2 | 1,185 | 38 | 109 | 2.2 | |||
Median (50th) | 2,524 | 122 | 147 | 18.2 | 618 | 25 | 139 | 3.3 | 1,594 | 49 | 124 | 5.7 | 2,101 | 57 | 123 | 6.1 | |||
75th percentile | 2,615 | 141 | 156 | 19.4 | 677 | 28 | 150 | 4.8 | 1,781 | 81 | 140 | 9.7 | 2,475 | 108 | 134 | 11.5 |
Unsurprisingly, the better defenders had better WAR totals than the poorer defenders, but also less power. So the latter group is definitely better for Encarnacion, though the overall offensive production is almost identical. And the same is true for their age 33 seasons, though the poorer defenders actually averaged 50 more PA, perhaps they were mostly first basemen and designated hitter, which helps in avoiding injuries.
The most interesting takeaway to me is that while the poorer defenders had poorer WAR totals as they aged, their playing time was roughly the same as was their offensive production. They did not age worse, as is conventionally thought of hulking sluggers. Since Encarnacion's defensive value has already bottomed out (no aging), this is a major positive. Notice that the average WAR for the poor defenders is pretty close to the simple projection from the beginning.
So what's fair for an extension? It seems like 6 WAR over 2017-19 is a reasonable expectation, which would work out to about $54-million ($18 million per year). That feels light in terms of what power is valued at on the market, but it also doesn't reflect any discount. If Encarnacion were willing to settle for a shorter extension, this is probably about right.
If he wants more years, the issue is that there's not much expected production at age 37-38 to pay him for. The average of 7.3 WAR works out to about $65-million, which is just $13-million per year and might not be enough to get a deal done.
There might be a way to bridge the gap. After age 36, the majority of similar players were basically done, with a minority who remained quite productive. The solution could be a shorter extension at higher salary, with vesting options--something like a $16-million annual salary, three years guaranteed with two options that vest at 500 PA or a buyout of $5-million for each. Encarnacion would be guaranteed $58-million (16 x 3 + 5 x 2), up to $80-million if he ages well, and it should mean he's a Blue Jay for the rest of his productive career. From the Toronto's point of view, the guarantee is backweighted to give more flexibility the next couple years.
Appendix: 50 similar hitters, 1946-2010
25 best defenders
Age 29 to 32 seasons | Age 33 season | Age 34 to 36 seasons | Age 34 to 38 seasons | ||||||||||||||||
Player | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | |||
Keith Hernandez | 2,624 | 50 | 139 | 21.9 | 676 | 18 | 123 | 3.6 | 773 | 16 | 98 | 1.3 | 773 | 16 | 98 | 1.3 | |||
Carl Yastrzemski | 2,559 | 107 | 139 | 20.8 | 652 | 19 | 139 | 5.4 | 1,903 | 50 | 125 | 9.9 | 3,157 | 95 | 124 | 17.3 | |||
John Olerud | 2,750 | 76 | 137 | 22.1 | 668 | 22 | 144 | 4.5 | 1,326 | 26 | 105 | 3.2 | 1,326 | 26 | 105 | 3.2 | |||
George Brett | 2,241 | 89 | 147 | 21.0 | 529 | 16 | 134 | 3.8 | 1,717 | 58 | 133 | 10.1 | 2,896 | 82 | 129 | 14.6 | |||
Rod Carew | 2,649 | 42 | 153 | 26.4 | 493 | 3 | 127 | 2.2 | 1,645 | 8 | 125 | 10.0 | 2,559 | 13 | 123 | 13.2 | |||
Tony Oliva | 2,412 | 87 | 140 | 18.5 | 30 | 0 | 117 | -0.1 | 1,633 | 42 | 102 | 1.7 | 1,761 | 43 | 98 | 0.8 | |||
Al Kaline | 2,204 | 89 | 153 | 20.7 | 389 | 10 | 146 | 3.2 | 1,574 | 52 | 130 | 8.9 | 2,235 | 72 | 127 | 12.0 | |||
Minnie Minoso | 2,596 | 67 | 139 | 20.4 | 650 | 21 | 135 | 5.3 | 1,413 | 35 | 118 | 4.0 | 1,814 | 40 | 110 | 3.1 | |||
Hank Aaron | 2,675 | 144 | 159 | 29.7 | 669 | 39 | 163 | 7.3 | 1,913 | 111 | 156 | 19.9 | 3,030 | 192 | 161 | 31.3 | |||
Reggie Smith | 2,181 | 92 | 147 | 18.7 | 531 | 29 | 161 | 4.6 | 676 | 26 | 139 | 6.5 | 1,074 | 44 | 137 | 9.4 | |||
Sid Gordon | 2,245 | 96 | 139 | 17.0 | 641 | 29 | 140 | 4.9 | 1,594 | 56 | 130 | 9.8 | 1,818 | 63 | 124 | 10.4 | |||
Alex Rodriguez | 2,691 | 172 | 160 | 28.3 | 535 | 30 | 141 | 4.0 | 1,552 | 64 | 121 | 10.0 | 1,733 | 71 | 120 | 10.5 | |||
Bobby Bonds | 2,389 | 110 | 135 | 16.6 | 631 | 25 | 125 | 3.4 | 460 | 11 | 82 | 0.0 | 460 | 11 | 82 | 0.0 | |||
George Foster | 2,272 | 117 | 146 | 18.7 | 608 | 13 | 88 | -0.3 | 1,746 | 73 | 108 | 5.0 | 2,056 | 87 | 106 | 5.1 | |||
Bob Allison | 1,892 | 87 | 139 | 13.8 | 526 | 22 | 133 | 2.8 | 307 | 9 | 101 | 0.5 | 307 | 9 | 101 | 0.5 | |||
Sammy Sosa | 2,850 | 243 | 160 | 28.1 | 666 | 49 | 157 | 5.1 | 1,552 | 89 | 110 | 3.7 | 2,006 | 110 | 107 | 4.0 | |||
Larry Walker | 2,005 | 127 | 160 | 20.1 | 372 | 9 | 110 | 1.9 | 1,718 | 80 | 145 | 16.2 | 2,401 | 112 | 145 | 21.2 | |||
Jeff Bagwell | 2,826 | 166 | 161 | 28.5 | 717 | 39 | 143 | 5.2 | 2,072 | 97 | 129 | 12.1 | 2,195 | 100 | 127 | 12.1 | |||
Cecil Cooper | 2,487 | 93 | 143 | 19.4 | 710 | 30 | 133 | 3.5 | 1,898 | 39 | 96 | 2.1 | 2,168 | 45 | 93 | 1.3 | |||
Dwight Evans | 2,513 | 108 | 145 | 19.7 | 744 | 29 | 128 | 4.0 | 1,942 | 81 | 141 | 12.9 | 3,094 | 114 | 135 | 16.7 | |||
Harmon Killebrew | 2,216 | 125 | 157 | 19.5 | 709 | 49 | 173 | 7.1 | 1,821 | 95 | 144 | 12.8 | 2,493 | 113 | 130 | 13.4 | |||
John Kruk | 2,388 | 52 | 139 | 16.9 | 301 | 5 | 118 | 1.5 | 188 | 2 | 116 | 0.4 | 188 | 2 | 116 | 0.4 | |||
Duke Snider | 2,044 | 121 | 144 | 15.3 | 285 | 14 | 131 | 1.4 | 877 | 35 | 127 | 4.1 | 1,066 | 39 | 118 | 3.5 | |||
Reggie Jackson | 2,414 | 122 | 146 | 19.1 | 537 | 29 | 150 | 3.9 | 1,604 | 95 | 149 | 9.2 | 2,646 | 134 | 124 | 7.7 | |||
Chipper Jones | 2,562 | 121 | 143 | 19.2 | 432 | 21 | 153 | 4.9 | 1,611 | 77 | 164 | 17.9 | 2,588 | 105 | 146 | 22.8 |
25 worst defenders
Age 29 to 32 seasons | Age 33 season | Age 34 to 36 seasons | Age 34 to 38 seasons | ||||||||||||||||
Player | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | PA | HR | wRC+ | WAR | |||
Joe Torre | 2,620 | 69 | 138 | 18.9 | 611 | 11 | 118 | 3.2 | 794 | 12 | 101 | 2.0 | 794 | 12 | 101 | 2.0 | |||
Pedro Guerrero | 1,697 | 75 | 156 | 14.8 | 665 | 17 | 147 | 3.1 | 1,185 | 22 | 93 | 0.3 | 1,185 | 22 | 93 | 0.3 | |||
Ted Kluszewski | 2,052 | 137 | 143 | 14.8 | 331 | 4 | 98 | 0.3 | 735 | 24 | 97 | 1.4 | 735 | 24 | 97 | 1.4 | |||
Bernie Williams | 2,524 | 107 | 146 | 19.5 | 699 | 19 | 146 | 4.9 | 1,718 | 49 | 101 | -2.5 | 2,180 | 61 | 100 | -3.7 | |||
Edgar Martinez | 1,783 | 64 | 157 | 16.3 | 634 | 26 | 163 | 5.9 | 1,962 | 81 | 160 | 16.9 | 3,208 | 141 | 158 | 26.9 | |||
Lance Berkman | 2,544 | 132 | 147 | 19.4 | 563 | 25 | 138 | 2.7 | 1,165 | 47 | 140 | 6.7 | 1,459 | 53 | 130 | 6.4 | |||
Derrek Lee | 2,243 | 96 | 136 | 13.4 | 615 | 35 | 150 | 5.2 | 1,103 | 38 | 109 | 2.2 | 1,103 | 38 | 109 | 2.2 | |||
Billy Williams | 2,833 | 121 | 135 | 18.8 | 677 | 28 | 139 | 4.4 | 1,783 | 73 | 138 | 10.1 | 2,798 | 107 | 128 | 11.5 | |||
Brian Giles | 2,615 | 130 | 156 | 23.3 | 711 | 23 | 127 | 5.0 | 1,943 | 42 | 124 | 9.9 | 2,850 | 56 | 120 | 12.2 | |||
Willie Stargell | 2,298 | 141 | 157 | 20.9 | 609 | 44 | 181 | 7.7 | 1,618 | 67 | 146 | 11.3 | 2,290 | 108 | 148 | 16.0 | |||
Vladimir Guerrero | 2,599 | 131 | 145 | 17.9 | 600 | 27 | 129 | 1.9 | 1,640 | 57 | 108 | 0.9 | 1,640 | 57 | 108 | 0.9 | |||
Bob Watson | 2,345 | 70 | 137 | 14.4 | 529 | 16 | 123 | 2.4 | 855 | 24 | 119 | 3.2 | 1,119 | 32 | 116 | 3.4 | |||
Todd Helton | 2,661 | 100 | 148 | 19.6 | 682 | 17 | 133 | 4.2 | 1,479 | 30 | 110 | 2.8 | 2,253 | 51 | 109 | 5.1 | |||
Carlos Delgado | 2,588 | 146 | 144 | 16.0 | 616 | 33 | 152 | 3.3 | 1,911 | 100 | 118 | 5.7 | 2,023 | 104 | 119 | 6.1 | |||
Ryan Klesko | 2,327 | 106 | 136 | 13.2 | 480 | 9 | 130 | 1.7 | 937 | 24 | 107 | 2.5 | 937 | 24 | 107 | 2.5 | |||
Jim Thome | 2,639 | 185 | 157 | 21.4 | 618 | 42 | 140 | 4.1 | 1,388 | 84 | 141 | 8.1 | 2,424 | 141 | 132 | 10.5 | |||
Ken Singleton | 2,577 | 92 | 152 | 18.9 | 680 | 24 | 148 | 4.2 | 1,697 | 45 | 123 | 5.2 | 2,101 | 51 | 111 | 3.4 | |||
David Ortiz | 2,557 | 159 | 155 | 18.6 | 627 | 28 | 100 | 0.3 | 1,594 | 84 | 150 | 9.2 | 2,796 | 149 | 147 | 14.8 | |||
Jack Clark | 1,987 | 93 | 147 | 13.0 | 594 | 26 | 151 | 4.2 | 1,349 | 58 | 132 | 6.4 | 1,349 | 58 | 132 | 6.4 | |||
Dave Winfield | 2,327 | 101 | 142 | 14.1 | 689 | 26 | 117 | 3.0 | 1,938 | 76 | 131 | 9.7 | 2,475 | 97 | 129 | 9.9 | |||
Frank Thomas | 2,658 | 122 | 148 | 18.2 | 79 | 4 | 90 | -0.1 | 1,601 | 88 | 138 | 8.1 | 2,284 | 139 | 138 | 10.9 | |||
Albert Belle | 2,844 | 164 | 142 | 17.9 | 622 | 23 | 104 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
Manny Ramirez | 2,480 | 154 | 162 | 19.6 | 650 | 45 | 152 | 2.9 | 1,781 | 92 | 152 | 10.0 | 2,532 | 120 | 150 | 13.6 | |||
Gary Sheffield | 2,442 | 135 | 157 | 18.5 | 579 | 25 | 144 | 4.8 | 2,037 | 109 | 147 | 13.5 | 2,796 | 140 | 140 | 16.8 | |||
Frank Howard | 2,499 | 146 | 156 | 16.8 | 706 | 44 | 160 | 5.0 | 1,252 | 48 | 125 | 3.9 | 1,252 | 48 | 125 | 3.9 |