FanPost

Exploring a potential SP trade deadline deal



The Blue Jays enter the 2016 campaign with the high expectation of retaining their AL East title. Highlighted by Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Bautista and EE, this is the best team the Jays have fielded in the last 20 years. Barring extreme regression from several members of the team, or a high number of serious injuries, this team will reach the end of July looking to add a rental arm. This is especially important to consider since Aaron Sanchez will be moved to the Bullpen at some point during the season, which essentially means you are looking at J.A. Happ starting any potential ALDS, ALCS or WS game 4.

This article will explore the arms that might be available at the trade deadline, highlighting their recent statistics as well as the potential cost in prospects and chance of availability.

The Jays do not have the same high level prospects they had a year ago, primarily thanks to graduating players and what happened during the crazy 2015 trade deadline. The highest rated prospects that might be made available in any deal include Anthony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, Dalton Pompey, and Conner Greene. I would personally feel comfortable making Devon Travis available for the right deal, however, that decision might be unpopular among many fans.

1. Tyson Ross

Over the past two years, Ross has pitched 391 innings at a respective ERA and FIP of 3.10. He is the ace of the of the San Diego Padres, and has nasty stuff. Adding Ross to the rotation would certainly provide the Jays with a solid 1-2 punch in the playoffs along with Marcus Stroman.

What makes this choice more appealing is that the Padres will be competing with the Rockies for last place in the NL West, so Ross should be available. The Jays will most likely have to include one of their two top 100 prospects as well as two mid level prospect to obtain Ross. Ross is under team control through the 2017 season, which will likely drive his cost up.

Chance player is made available: 90%

2. Andrew Cashner

Like Ross, Cashner is set to pitch for the Padres to start the 2016 season, which means he should be made available at the trade deadline. Cashner pitched to a mediocre ERA of 4.34 last season, however, he has a career FIP of 3.63 in 594.1 innings.

Cashner should be much cheaper than Ross to obtain, and in this case one highly rated prospect might be enough to get the job done.

Chance player is made available: 90%

3. Stephen Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg is an ace with extremely filthy stuff. Drafted 1st overall in 2009, he hasn't quite lived up to expectations due to health issues, as he has topped 200 innings only once in his career.

If he is healthy, and the Washington Nationals aren't doing so well, he could be made available. It's hard to count out any team that has Bryce Harper, and it's expected that the Nationals will not trade him away unless they are very clearly out of it. Strasburg owns a spectacular career FIP of 2.83 in 776.2 career innings.

The cost to obtain Strasburg will be similar to what the Jays gave up to obtain David Price. Three players, or all 2 of the Jays top 100 prospects, will be going to the Nationals for a deal to happen. However, a 1-2 punch of Stroman and Strasburg will give AL opponents nightmares in October.

Chance player is made available: 40%

4. Julio Teheran

Julio Teheran is not a rental as he is under team control through the 2019 season. However, the Braves made it clear that he is available if the right deal comes along. They were reluctant to trade him during this off -season as he pitched to an ERA of 4.04 in 2015, thus not wanting to sell low on him. He owns a career ERA of 3.44 in 633.1 innings of work.

The cost in this case is unclear. The Diamondbacks gave up a king's ransom to buy high on Shelby Miller, so expect the braves to ask the Jays for a slightly lighter return if Teheran is pitching well.

Chance player is made available: 95%

5. Edinson Volquez

Jays nation isn't really fond of this guy, and that's because he was intentionally throwing at the AL MVP's head in July. Nevertheless, baseball is a business, and if the Royals aren't doing well in an extremely competitive AL Central that has 5 teams capable of taking it, they might trade away the pending free agent.

Volquez has a very good ERA of 3.30 in the last two years over 392 regular season innings, outperforming his FIP by about 0.7 runs. However, we have seen him notch up his sinker to 97 MPH in the post-season, and seems like the guy who can take the ball every fifth day. The cost to obtain Volquez would probably be one top 100 prospect or two mid level prospects.

In a very competitive AL central, any team in that division can easily win it. All projections were extremely harsh on the royals, but they play their own brand of baseball that seems to work, so I expect them to be adding rather than selling at the deadline

Chance player is made available: 30%

6. J.A. Happ

This is the do nothing approach. Keep our prospects, believe in Happ to deliver in the postseason against the best of the AL, in a potential elimination game, walking batter after batter.. you see were I am going with this.

If Happ is pitching like Happ during the season I expect the Jays to add at the deadline, if Happ shows that he can stick to the improvements he made with the Pirates last year, the Jays will probably stick with this option.

Other potential players that can be had for a low cost: Clay Bucholz, Bartolo Colon, John Danks, Doug Fister, Scott Feldman, Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova

So, what do you think? Should the Jays pull the trigger at the trade deadline, or stick with their internal deep pitching staff. If so, who should they go for?

Editor's Note: This is a FanPost written by a reader and member of Bluebird Banter. It was not commissioned by the editors and is not necessarily reflective of the opinions of Bluebird Banter or SB Nation.