Bluebird Banter

Bleaching Your Teeth, Smiling Flash, Talking Trash Under Your Breath

2008-11-22T00:55:22Z

The biggest Jay news today was that J.P. Ricciardi told reporters that he was not averse to the idea of going 5 years on A.J. Burnett. That is potentially news because it's not clear that the Yankees or the Red Sox are willing to go to 5 years. Ricciardi stressed that no offer has been made yet but said that he wasn't put off by the idea of going 5 years.

While it's very unlikely that the Jays retain Burnett, you've got to hand it to Ricciardi. Knowing that the Yankees and the Red Sox are bidding against each other already, why not intimate that the Jays are willing to go 5 years on Burnett, thereby driving up the price for two of their main competitors? Even the Yankees and Sox don't have bottomless coffers, and there's a significant risk to taking on any pitcher, including A.J., for a long-term deal.

Of course, if you take JP at his word, it makes no sense. First of all, is it really a good idea to give A.J. 5 more years? (Although I have to admit I'm somewhat tempted by the idea of going 5 and giving A.J. another opt-out after two years). That's a huge risk for a team like the Jays to be taking on. And why would the Jays keep getting deeper and deeper into A.J. while simultaneously swearing off all other free agents on the market? Who does business this way?

Someone driving up the price on the marquis free agents before the December meetings, getting his competitors to spend as much money as possible. Someone who is planning on waiting out the winters and then signing a bat and an arm after the new year, players who have lost their leverage. The Jays might not end up with the best players this way, but this is how JP likes to do business. He's like Ma Hugo at Old Navy, forever looking for a deal.

By the way, today's post comes from (what I submit is) one of the great songs out of Canada, "Anthem for a Seventeen Year Old Girl" by Broken Social Scene. I just thought the Talking Heads album cover fit the post.

Nothing much for news today so thought I'd put up one of my favorite bits Abbott and Costello's...

2008-11-21T19:38:08Z

Nothing much for news today so thought I'd put up one of my favorite bits Abbott and Costello's Who's on First

Bits of News on a Thursday Night

2008-11-21T03:06:20Z

Our Blue Jays have made a handle of minor moves on the 40 man roster. Add to the roster are lefty pitchers Ricky Romero and Robert Ray and right hander Luis Perez. Romero and Ray are on our top prospects list at #9 and #12 respectively. Perez pitched in A ball for us last year, going 5 and 12 with a 3.60 ERA.

To make room recent pick ups lefty pitcher Les Walrond and infielder Angel Sanchez were dropped. Walrond was picked off waivers from the Phillies earlier this month and apparently is headed to Japan to play over there. Sanchez was taken off waivers from the Royals early this month.

In other news Mike Mussina has announced his retirement. Nice for him to be able to retire after his first 20 win season. He finishes with 270 career wins, good for a tie for 33rd spot all time. He isn't a lock for the Hall of Fame but you'd have to think he has a good shot at it. I'll admit I'm not big fan, as a general rule I'm not a big fan of any Yankee, but that deep bend over from his waste at the start of every windup was kind of interesting.

Phillies Chase Utley is to have hip surgery and may miss a large portion of next season. Utley has been hurting since May but still played in 159 games and hit .292 with 33 home runs.

And in the category of stories that I would think should come out of the Bizzaro universe, apparently Manny Ramirez would like to be a Blue Jay but we don't have interest in him. I know, money is the ruling issue, but don't you think signing Manny would be worth his weight in season tickets? And wouldn't it be a good signal to the rest of the team that 'hey we are interested in winning'? As much as we really could use a starting pitcher, a short stop and a catcher......wouldn't you gladly take Manny and live with what we have at the other spots?

Take the money we aren't paying AJ, trade off BJ and add that money in and whatever beyond that amount that Manny would cost you'd have to guess that would be more than made up in ticket sales. If I was JP, I'd have to think I was going into this season with a win or be fired in the back of my mind, so why doesn't he show a bit of urgency?

And in news, that no one but me will be interested in, son of former Jay John Mayberry, John Mayberry, Jr (inventive name) was traded from the Texas Rangers to the Phillies For outfielder Greg Golson. Mayberry, 24, hit .264 with 20 homers between Double A and Triple A. John Sr. is number 41 on our list of top 50 Jays.

The Dangling Conversation, Part IV - We Speak of Things That Matter And Words That Must Be Said

2008-11-20T23:04:57Z

Rincewind: So who should bat leadoff?

Hugo: Hmmm. With the Jays’ current personnel, no one is really suited for the leadoff role. Early in his career, Aaron Hill showed some glimpses of possibly developing towards the role (he OBPed .342 over about 2/3 of a season as a 23-year old, which is quite a good sign for such a young middle infielder in his first taste of major-league ball, and boosted that to .349 the following season), but his more recent performance and both his and the team’s statements suggest that he’s not the man for the job right now. Conversely, Marco Scutaro has been lousy at getting on base throughout his career -- he did a halfway respectable job of it last season (.341), but not good enough to lead off for a good team. Alexis Rios and Vernon Wells have batted leadoff in the past, but neither one is particularly adept at reaching base either. Rios did steal 32 bases (75% success rate) last season, but unless he significantly improves his OBP from last season (.337), that won’t really do. Rios and Wells are needed to drive in runs anyway.

The best Jays at reaching base are Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen. Neither one has base-stealing speed, but Rolen reached base at a .370 clip against lefties, while Overbay did so at an even better .385 rate against righties. If no one is added from outside the organization, I would give very strong consideration to platooning those two at the leadoff position, which could result in as much as a .380 OBP from the leadoff spot based on their performance and splits from 2008 (and as you know, neither one had a career year or anything). That would go a long way to the Jays scoring more runs in 2009.

Of course, if the Jays get Furcal, it’s a moot point – he’s the leadoff man, with the speed, the switch-hitting, and a .352 lifetime OBP. But I would bat Rolverbay (awesome!) in the 2-hole.

Rincewind: Rolverbay? Sounds like a bad rock band. “Direct from Cincinnati, to sing you their big hit, it’s Roverbay”. That would be my suggestion too (knew I should have answered this one first), they both get on base so well. But I would bet you dollars to donuts that Cito wouldn’t do it. I was so hoping you’d suggest Rios so we could argue. In the early 80’s the Angels had a big, slow LF/DH Brian Downing that looked like a power guy and he would hit 15 to 25 homers a year, but he would also take 70 to 100 walks a year and they used him as a leadoff man, on the theory that the power hitters hit behind him so why waste a base stealer in front of guys that are going to pound the ball anyway. I don’t think Cito would think that far outside the box though.

The good part to me is that Overbay wouldn’t feel force to try to hit for power, I don’t think that is his strength. I think he is better off to be allowed to work the count and not have to swing for the fences. Putting him in the middle of the order and expecting he to drive in 100 runs is not going to work. If he leads off, then hitting 15 to 20 home runs is a bonus.

I did like Inglett batting at the top of the order but since he is unlikely to have a role on the team next season. Would you be strongly against Inglett playing DH if we don’t sign someone? Furcal would be a great pickup, especially because he would keep Scoot out of the leadoff spot.

Hugo: Haha sorry for stealing your thunder there, but I am glad to hear we agree. Inglett was good at the top of the order against righties, but I don’t like him in the DH role on an everyday basis. I think he’ll get his at-bats, since he will be backing up a lot of positions and injuries will be inevitable. He might be a better leftfielder than Lind anyway, so it’d likely be Lind at DH and Inglett in leftfield.

Rincewind: My worry is, no way does Cito have Overbay/Rolen leadoff. So without Inglett having a spot in the lineup, I’m expecting that we will be treated to Scoot as a leadoff man. If the Jays were to pick up Hardy or Greene I have no idea who Cito would use. We will have to come back to this question closer to the start of the season.

You Half-Japanese Girls; You Do It To Me Every Time

2008-11-20T16:39:13Z

This story in today's Globe and Mail combines everything I love in a story: Female Athletes, Japanese Baseball, and Knuckleballers.

Eri Yoshida, a 16-year old young woman and high school student in Japan has been drafted to play for the Kobe 9 Cruise, a professional baseball team in Kobe, Japan that is part of a new, 4-team league in Western Japan. Of course it is a low-level professional league, but Eri, who is all of 155 centimetres (5 feet) tall and 52 kg (114 pounds), not to mention just 16, will be the first woman to play professional baseball in Japan (alongside the men, that is - Japan, like the U.S., briefly had a professional woman's league post WWII).

Yoshida throws a knuckleball from a sidearm arm slot and her manager, Yoshihiro Nakata, describes the pitch as having good down and away movement. Eri grew up playing baseball with her older brother and has always played on all-male teams. She says she was inspired to throw the knuckler after seeing a video of Tim Wakefield and wants to follow in his footsteps. Wakefield, for his part, was very gracious about it and also had kind words for the knucklers he grew up watching, including, of course, our old friend Tom Candiotti.

Congratulations to Eri Yoshida and best of luck with the 9 Cruise and in her future career! And if you'll excuse me, I have to go teach my 21 month-old the knuckleball grip so that she can be the first woman in american pro baseball...

No Free Agents For the Jays?

2008-11-20T00:12:26Z

Hmmm. So J.P. Ricciardi is at it again. The master of excuses, misdirection, and lowered expectations has kindly informed the baseball world that A.J. Burnett is the Jays' one and only free agent target, and that if A.J. goes elsewhere:

"I don't think there's anybody else out there that, for what you'd probably have to get involved with from a money standpoint, that we would feel comfortable getting involved with. I think we'd probably stay in-house."

Ricciardi also spent some time complaining about the economy and how it's affected the Jays' spending, nixing the many rumors that had linked the Jays with everyone from Rafael Furcal to Milton Bradley to Manny Ramirez to Derek Lowe.

Let's face it: A.J. is gone. The Jays are not prepared to go 5/80, which looks like it will be what it takes. But what I can't figure out is this - let's say that A.J. spurns the $54 million or however much the Jays were willing to use on him. Why wouldn't they then think about the best other way to spend that money they're obviously willing to invest in the team? (hint: $11 million a year could likely pay for Bradley, and perhaps even Furcal). Does Burnett offer some special value on the free agent market as compared to other free agents? Hardly. That's simply not the case, and I can't believe that Ricciardi would be content in what has to be his (last) last chance with the Jays to not only stand pat but substantially cut payroll from last season, not replacing several missing key pieces from last season or addressing the glaring weakness that sunk an otherwise excellent team.

Ricciardi mentioned trades, and it has been a practice for other GMs to empty out the farm system when their backs are against the wall and they need to win now, but JP has always been reluctant to trade his prospects (as Richard Griffin pointed out in today's Star), so I'm not sure that will happen. I like JP's trade record, actually, but the Jays' major league roster and high minors talent, other than in the bullpen, is pretty thin to be dealing away their major league talent.

The Jays are down significantly in payroll from last season, with no one due a big raise through arbitration. They need a starter and a dh, at the very least, quite badly but they don't have extra major-leaguers to trade and they don't want to give away their few prize prospects. It would seem that free agency is the perfect way for them to augment the roster, and yet JP is ruling it out? Furcal won't even cost draft picks (and Bradley is only a Type B), so they're especially good deals as they will truly only cost money.

No way - it has to be just another example of misdirection, and lowering expectations. We heard it all last season, before J.P. dealt Glaus for Rolen in a bold challenge trade, and got us all hot-and-bothered by almost (or not depending on who your read) getting Lincecum for Rios. We will see what happens, but lest we forget, this is the man who thinks says it's not a lie if he knows the truth.

Top 50 All-Time Greatest Jays: #41 John Mayberry

2008-11-19T20:22:56Z

John Claiborn Mayberry|1B|1978-1982

Runs Created as a Jay: 295

John Mayberry was born February 18, 1949 in Detroit, Michigan. He was a gifted athlete in high school playing baseball, football and basketball. He was drafted in the 1st round (6th pick overall) in the 1967 amateur draft. The number 1 pick that year was by the Yankees, Ron Blomberg, so the Astros could have done a lot worse. The only players in the players picked in the first round that were clearly better than John were Ted Simmons and Bobby Grich.

John was a big, left-handed slugging first baseman. He is listed at 6'3" 230 pounds, but I would guess by the time he played with the Jays he was likely heavier than that. He made the majors as a September call-up in 1968 as a 19 year old, though he only got 9 at bats that month and no hits. The next season he was also a September call-up getting only 4 at bats and still no hits. After 2 more seasons as part-timer he was traded to the Royals where he became a full time first baseman there for 6 seasons.

His first 4 seasons as a Royal he was amazing, including 2 years as an All-Star and a 2nd place finish in the 1975 AL MVP. He received MVP votes in 3 other seasons with the Royals. His best season he had 34 home runs, 119 walks, and 106 RBI. He hit .291/.416/.547. His last 2 years with the Royals his stats fell to earth with a thump. In 1976 he hit .232 and 1977 he hit .230. Ummmm there may have been a reason for his sudden drop.

To understand what happened, well you have to understand a little about baseball and the world in general, in the late ‘70s and early ‘80's. Over the last roughly 15 years baseball's (and other sports') biggest problem/scandal has been performance enhancing drugs. Back then the scandal was non-performance enhancing drugs.

To be fair baseball wasn't the only place where the drugs were a problem. Cocaine was the drug of choice for the financially well off throughout society. For a time it was close to socially acceptable as alcohol. Time Magazine had a cover story saying it was the in thing, without any suggestion that there could be a downside.

In the 1977 AL Playoffs the Royals were up 2 games to 1. The 4th game started early on a Sunday and manager Whitey Herzog allowed his players to skip batting practice the night before to let them get a good night's sleep. As Whitey tells it:

"Mayberry dragged in real late, but I put him on first base anyway, which was my big mistake". Mayberry had a bad game, dropping pop-ups and striking out. Herzog asked him what was wrong. "The man couldn't even talk and I knew what was wrong....It must have been a hell of a party". Herzog insisted the Royals get rid of him and they did, selling him to the Jays.

A few years later Whitey would make the same sort of trade as manager of the St. Louis Cardinals. Keith Hernandez was a terrific first baseman, but Whitey publically didn't like his work ethic. Privately, Hernandez, it came out later he had the same sort of drug problem and Whitey didn't want him influencing the younger players on his team. So he traded Hernandez to the Mets, for far less than what he seemed to be worth. He might have been right to have worries; two of the Met's young superstars damaged their careers' and their lives' through drug use, though it would be a leap to assign blame.

At the time it was hard to believe that the Royals would give up Mayberry for next to nothing. But as time went on the drug problem in baseball became better known and in a lot of cases managers and teams had turned a blind eye to it.

Anyway, the second year Blue Jay team that Mayberry joined was a terrible team. They finished with a 59 and 102 record. Mayberry's improved in his seasons with the Jays, though he never again was as good as he was his first years with the Royals.

In 1979 John played in 137 games, hit .274/.372/.461 with 21 homers and 74 RBI. And in 1980 he hit .248/.349/.473 with 30 home runs, 6th most in the AL and 82 RBI. So he was a very productive player for the Jays, if not quite a superstar.

In the strike season of 1981 Mayberry played in 94 of Toronto's 106 games. He hit .248/.360/.452 with 17 home runs, 7th in the AL. Every full season he had with the Jays his OPS+ was over 100, with scores of 108, 124, 119 and 128 so he was really a strong offensive player for the Jays.

In 1982 he played 17 games mostly as a DH, as Willie Upshaw took over as a first baseman for the Jays, hitting .273/.405/.455, but on May 5th he was traded to the Yankees for Dave Revering, Tom Dodd and Jeff Reynolds. None of the 3 of them played much for the Jays, though Dodd was traded back the Yankees after the '82 season along with Dale Murray for Dave Collins, Fred McGriff, Mike Morgan and cash. That must have been the best trade in Jay's history and one of the better trades in baseball history.

I was pretty young when he played for the Jays but my memory of him was a smiling, happy, big man. I'm sure he it wouldn't have easy to happy, when he was traded the Royals were one of the best teams in the AL and he was traded to what was the worst team in the league. When he was left the Jays he held the team career records for homers and RBI. And although he was a slow base runner he was pretty good defensively at first base.

I haven't been able to find much information about him since he retired. He has a son, John, Jr. who is an outfielder in Texas Ranger's farm system. Mayberry was ranked as the 49th best first baseman in ever in Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract. I'd imagine he has dropped a few spots since that book was published.

John Mayberry's place among Jay's batting leaders:

8th On-base % (>2000 PA) .352
12th Slugging % (>2000 PA) .450
10th OPS (>2000 PA) .802
30th Games 549
32nd At Bats 1803
36th Runs 215
36th Hits 461
28th Total Bases 811
15th Home Runs 92
24th RBI 272
18th Walks 257
26th Runs Created 295

Astros Looking to Trade Wigginton, Would He Be a Good Pickup for the Jays?

2008-11-19T16:55:37Z

The title pretty much says it all; according to the Houston Chronicle, the Astros are likely to trade Ty Wigginton in the next few weeks to cut payroll.

It seems that Wigginton wouldn't necessarily command much in a trade, but I think he could be a useful and bargain pickup by the Jays. The Astros aren't impressed by Wigginton's defense at third, but the Jays would only be using him there as a backup plan. Wigginton would essentially be a better version of Jose Bautista, able to backup at 2nd and third and start at first base or leftfield against lefty pitchers, and offering the same power as Bautista, if not more, while maintaining a respectable on-base percentage (which Jose does not do). Best of all, Wigginton absolutely mashed lefty pitching in 2008 to the tune of .340/.424/.631 and wasn't so bad against righties either, hitting .265/.322/.488 for a fine 126 OPS+ all told. He has always pretty much trashed lefty pitching and he has a respectable lifetime .790 career OPS against righties and lefties. Not the answer to our everyday DH spot, but a big upgrade over Jose Bautista (career .722 OPS and unmashing, though still very good, .885 OPS against lefties last season) And unlike Baustista (from the limited amount we saw, at least), Wigginton can competently play first base, making him a better platoon partner for Overbay, whose line against lefties was horrendous .215/.285/.255 over 167 offense-sucking plate appearances.

Even if Lind discovers and Overbay rediscovers his stroke against lefties and the infield stays totally healthy, we still might end up with a left-hand hitting DH. All this is to say I wouldn't mind Ty becoming a Jay if the price were right. Wigginton is arbitration-eligible this season and is likely to make between $4.5-5 million, a bit of a turnoff, but he had a good year last season and so we could net some nice picks in 2010 when he becomes a free agent, an added bonus. Any thoughts?

Take Dempster Off Our Wish List

2008-11-19T15:08:12Z

The All-Star right-hander agreed to a four-year, $52 million deal on Tuesday to remain with the Cubs, including a $14 million player option for the 2012 season. He gets a $4 million signing bonus.

That's a heck of a lot of money for one good season.

Football Pool for NFL Week 12

2008-11-19T06:44:31Z

Yet again there is a Thursday night game. Actually all the rest of the season there are Thursday games, except for the last week of the season. So we might as well plan for them.

On this side of the border there is another football game being played this Sunday. My Calgary Stampeders are playing the dirty, rotten, clutching, grabbing, far outclassed, Montreal Alouettes. So this week the tie-breaker is picking the winner of the Grey Cup (Stampeders, if you need a hint) and total points scored. Now I'm almost sure that you won't be banned if you pick the wrong team in this game, but you might not want to chance it.

Anyway, as always, if you can, get your picks in before the Thursday game. If not you can't you can still send me your picks, you will just miss out on the one game.

NFL Point Spreads For Week 12 - Week Twelve NFL Football Point Spread - NFL Spreads 11/20 - 11/24, 2008

Date & Time	Favorite	Spread	Underdog
11/20 8:15 ET	At Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cincinnati
11/23 1:00 ET	At Cleveland	-3.5	Houston
11/23 1:00 ET	Buffalo	-3.5	At Kansas City
11/23 1:00 ET	At Tennessee	-5.5	NY Jets
11/23 1:00 ET	At Miami	-1.5	New England
11/23 1:00 ET	At Dallas	-10.5	San Francisco
11/23 1:00 ET	Tampa Bay	-8.5	At Detroit
11/23 1:00 ET	At Baltimore	-1.5	Philadelphia
11/23 1:00 ET	Chicago	-8.5	At St. Louis
11/23 1:00 ET	At Jacksonville	-2.5	Minnesota
11/23 4:15 ET	At Atlanta	-1.5	Carolina
11/23 4:05 ET	At Denver	-9.5	Oakland
11/23 4:15 ET	Washington	-3.5	At Seattle
11/23 4:15 ET	NY Giants	-3.5	At Arizona
11/23 8:15 ET	At San Diego	-2.5	Indianapolis

Monday Night Football Point Spread


11/24 8:35 ET	At New Orleans	-2.5	Green Bay

Week 11 Football Pool Results

2008-11-19T05:39:46Z

Well another week goes by and yet again I don't win.....sigh. Winners this week were Jets, Denver, Oakland, Giants, Houston, Tennessee, Green Bay (pounded da Bears), Cincinnati (in a tie game), New Orleans, Detroit (!), Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego, Dallas and Cleveland.

This week's winner: No Bunting, for the second week in a row, with a big 13 of 16, showing that bunting is a bad idea even in football. Loser this week, a new player, Tommy02 with 6 of 16, who just happens to be my middle boy. So skill in picking football teams runs in the family. Hugo had a bad week too getting 7 but I'm sure he's just happy his Jets won. Me, I got 9.

So congratulations again, No Bunting. There is a Thursday game again this week, so we'll have the pool up early Wednesday. And since my Stampeders are in the Grey Cup this weekend (!!!!) the tie-breaker will be picking the number of points they will win by.

Ok....Here is What I Don't Understand....

2008-11-18T23:41:25Z

Quantum Physics......

No sorry, the AL MVP voting was announced today and Dustin Pedroia wins, which is fine, he is as deserving as anyone. Five voters put Cliff Lee on their ballots which is still fine. Now here is what I don't get, one voter listed Mike Mussina on the ballot but no one voted for Roy Halladay.

How can Mike Mussina be a candidate for MVP and Doc not be? Is it time to take the vote away from the baseball writers and give it to....I don't know....some trained baboons or something? Fortunately the nice man, Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News, who voted for Mussina (and no other pitchers) wrote why:

8. Mike Mussina, Yankees: The only pitcher on my ballot, Mussina benefited from playing for the team I cover. It's only natural to appreciate a player's season if you get the chance to witness the entire thing in person, and nothing was more enjoyable for me this year than watching Mussina's renaissance.

Mussina's 20-9 record made him the oldest first-time 20-game winner, as he trailed only Cy Young winner Cliff Lee in victories. His 3.37 ERA ranked sixth in the AL and he finished in the top 10 in winning percentage (.690) and WHIP (1.22), as Mussina put together a season no one could have envisioned. The Yankees missed the playoffs, but without Mussina, they would have been out of the race a lot earlier than they were. If this was in fact the final season for Mussina, he went out on the highest of high notes.

On a separate note, 18 of the 28 voters put Alex Rodriguez on their ballot. Really? In my estimation, A-Rod was probably the fifth-most valuable player on the Yankees behind Mussina, Mariano Rivera, Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu. I know he had great overall stats, but if you watched the Yankees on a regular basis, you know he was far from their MVP, let alone the league's MVP.

Hmmmm he gets the vote because he is the oldest first time 20 game winner. Being an answer on a Trivial Pursuit card is a reason to vote for someone? Oh and he had a 20-9 record, compared to Doc's 20-11 record. His ERA was 3.37 and Doc's was 2.78. His whip 1.22, Doc's 1.05. And he 'put together a season what no one could have envisioned', while Doc was just great like always. But the award isn't called 'Surprising Season Award.

Other stat comparisons....Doc completed 9 games, Moose 0. Doc pitched 246 innings, Moose 200. Doc struck out 206, Mussina 150.

And this guy is an expert.......

The Dangling Conversation, Part III: Can Analysis Be Worthwhile?

2008-11-18T16:39:12Z

Rincewind: So Should the Jays go into rebuilding mode?

Hugo: Good question. My answer is no. The Jays third order wins, run differential (better than the Rays) and Pythagorean record all suggest that the Jays fielded an excellent team last season and the results just didn’t match the quality of the play. That said, not all the starters are back and the offense was a real, not an imaginary, problem. Getting more games from Rolen and Wells, the return of Aaron Hill, and replacing Brevin Stewie Mencherson in the outfield and Stairs/Thomas at DH will help the offense, but the Jays do not have good offensive talent in the high minors and so help from outside the organization is needed.

Not many Jays have trade value, to be honest. Most think of Wells’ contract as untradeable, but I actually think the Yankees might bite on it if the Jays didn’t expect too much back (I can’t remember if Wells has a no-trade clause, but he might likely waive it anyway). They are desperate in CF, Wells is a quality player, and the money won’t faze them. I might look into that, move Rios to centerfield, and use the cash to sign another corner outfielder – I’ve always thought that the Jays aren’t getting full value by using Rios in right when he is capable of manning center, and Wells’ defense appears to be declining to the point where he will be a rightfielder soon anyway. But that wouldn’t really be rebuilding, just freeing up money for the future. I doubt the Jays do it anyway, at least now, though I would be surprised if Wells plays out his contract as a Jay.

Ryan and Downs have some value, but Ryan’s salary means he might not fetch too much back. Certainly no one in their right mind is going to give up an A position player or starter prospect for a $10 million closer, but Ryan plus might be enough to get J.J. Hardy to play SS, though alone he’d perhaps command someone like Khalil Greene. Again, not rebuilding.

Really, the rebuilding question comes down to Halladay – he’s the only Jay who has the status, the quality, and the salary (and the right amount of time left on his deal) to get a real package of quality prospects back in return. A Rangers fan on the site posted with a possible package that I think the Jays would have to entertain – SS Elvis Andrus, 1B/DH/3B Chris Davis, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and SPs Neftali Perez and Tommy Hunter. But would the Rangers actually offer that? I very much doubt it.

Rincewind: Yeah I agree that basically they can’t go into rebuilding mode. First of all JP likely couldn’t survive a rebuild. This is his team, if he rebuilds he’s saying the he didn’t do the job right in the first place. And you are right the team’s numbers were better than their record, there was some bad luck involved and bad luck should balance out. Just a modest improvement and the reversal of some luck would put the Jays into the playoff race.

And to rebuild they would have to trade Wells and I don’t think he is tradable at that moment. I don’t think Rolen is tradable either, so we can’t do a full rebuilding and half measures aren’t of any value. Really we have to hope Vernon has a season that lives up to his contract and that Rolen finds the fountain of youth somehow. Actually at the end of last season it looked like Rolen had found his youth so….I’m hopeful.

Hugo: You’re definitely right about JP. I can’t think of a team that has given a GM a chance to start over from scratch, left him alone as he built the team he said would compete, and then allowed him to blow it up and start over without ever even sniffing the playoffs. Terry Ryan had a tough time through several years as the Twins GM, but they were operating under tight financial constraints that JP hasn’t had. No way he blows the team up.

The Dangling Conversation Part II: Do I Have To Keep On Talking Till I Can't Go On?

2008-11-18T00:26:28Z

Hi everyone. When last we left off, your friendly hosts were discussing the high and low points of the 2008 season. Now we delve into the offseason and what the Jays can and should do. Without further adieu (and thanks to the Beatles "We Can Work It Out" for today's title):

Hugo: What are the Jays’ biggest problem spots going into the offseason and in what order should they be addressed?

Rincewind: Starting pitcher and DH…..change my mind about the order of the two every few minutes. I’d prefer them to be found on the free agent market, rather not give up on any of our better prospects. Although if BJ Ryan could be traded to fill one of the holes, I wouldn’t complain.

Beyond that if a real upgrade at SS could be had without costing too much, I’d be happy.

Hugo: I suppose I would try to fix DH spot first. My reasoning is that the Jays have more depth at starting pitcher, even though there are more questions there. Things might look very shaky at the beginning of the season, but as the season develops, options like Romero, McGowan, Cecil, Mills, and Ray may develop to fill the starting pitcher role, while DH is Snider and nothing, leaving the Jays absolutely no margin for error if one of Rios/Wells/Snider/Lind/Overbay go down, unless you want to see Inglett or Bautista in the outfield everyday (I don’t). I also think the Jays’ solid defense and bullpen will take some of the pressure off the starting rotation, a luxury the Yankees, say, didn’t have with their young starting pitchers upon who they relied this season.

After DH, I would go to starting pitcher, and then SS. I’d love to upgrade catcher but I just don’t see it happening until Arencibia is ready to go.

Rincewind: Is there no chance Arencibia would be ready to go at the start of the season? Boy he looks good and watching Barajas streak and slump all season was not fun. There are a lot of interesting older catchers available on the free agent list that might be cheap.

The nice part about the DH problem is that there is a handful of free agents that could fill the role, though if a team would give us a DH for Ryan that would leave us with money for a starter. I wonder if the Rangers would go for Ryan for Blalock?

Hugo: That’s an interesting deal. Blalock would be a very nice fit on the team, and he’s only signed to the one year at a reasonable cost. As for the catcher spot, I think Arencibia could probably be about as good as Barajas over the full season, maybe better, but he still needs work on his plate discipline and the majors really isn’t a good place for a young catcher to work on that skill. I’m really hoping he makes it to the majors this season, but because he’s truly ready, not because we have a sub .300 OBPing Barajas and an open wound at the catcher position.

Rincewind: Well, there are 16 old catchers, not one under 30, that have filed as free agents. I’m sure most of them would take a one year contract or one and an option year. Any interest in Henry Blanco as a back up? Ivan Rodriguez? David Ross? Javier Valentin? Varitek? Or are we just as well off to keep Thigpen in the role for now?

We didn’t talk about who we would like to pick up to fill out the starting rotation. I’m taking it for granted that AJ won’t be back. At the moment I think the locks are Doc, Litsch and Purcey. I am hoping Janssen is totally healthy and could fill a spot. I could really see him being the comeback player of the year, if, of course, Cito doesn’t blow his arm out again.

I’d love to see the Jays go after Derek Lowe or Randy Johnson. Lowe, with our infield defense could be a terrific fit and if McGowan comes back healthy, Lowe would be a great trading piece. Johnson? Well I just like the guy and he likely would be willing to take a one year contract, just to get to that 300th win. Yeah, I know, might be wishful thinking in both cases.

Hugo: Plenty of time to get into specifics as the offseason progresses, but I'm not sure Ranjo would be willing to sign here. He's said he only wants to sign with a contender or he'll retire, and while I'm sure he's bs-ing about that, if he prefers a contender he'll surely be able to find one. Thought it breaks my heart to say so, I'm not sure we qualify in that regard, at least, in the minds of most free agents.

Lowe, although old, has been very durable and his groundball numbers are a great fit, so we'll have to see where the offseason goes. My guess is that he doesn't sign until the bigger names are off the market.

Though this violates the order I put out just before (DH-starter-SS), I'd love to see the Jays swoop in and get Hardy now. Hardy is well above-average both offensively and defensively and will be just 26 next season. I'd try to get him before Furcal and Cabrera sign and other teams get in on him. Hardy is good enough to justify including Cecil, I think, though I'd hope it wouldn't take that.

Hugo: Well, that's that for now. Next time we will talk about whether the Jays should go into rebuilding mode and, later on, who should bat leadoff for our azure-clad heroes!

I'll Have You Home By Break of Day / I'm Going Your Way Anyway / And If You Want to Come Along / I'll Be Yours For a Song, Or, Should the Jays Make a Play for J.J. Hardy?

2008-11-17T14:51:16Z

The Jays are once again in the market for a shortstop this offseason and everyone has their favourite choice - should the Jays sign free agents Orlando Cabrera or Rafael Furcal, or should they trade for a shortstop like J.J. Hardy or Khalil Greene? No matter who people like the best, though, everyone seems to agree that Milwaukee SS J.J. Hardy would be a big upgrade over Jay shortstops of the past, and at just 26 years of age in 2009, Hardy could be a long-term solution as well.

Hardy has put up very good lines of .277/.323/.463 and .283/.343/.478 over the past two seasons and has 50 home runs and 66 doubles and triples to show for his hard work. His age means that he's unlikely to decline over the next few seasons and could even get better. Hardy has also earned accolades for his defense.

The reason I bring this up now is that Brewers GM Doug Melvin has stated that the best offer he has yet received for Hardy is a "5th Starter." The Jays can do better than that, can't they? With the Brewers anxious for pitching help to replace C.C. Sabathia and in the pen, and anxious to get top prospect Alcides Escobar into the everyday lineup at shortstop, the Jays have a golden opportunity to put together a package to get Hardy. Is Ryan a better offer than a 5th starter? What if the cost were Litsch and Ryan? Cecil and Ryan? What think we?

Top 50 All-Time Greatest Jays: #42 Reed Johnson

2008-11-16T21:59:02Z

Reed Cameron Johnson|LF,RF,CF|2003-2007

Runs Created as a Jay: 294

Reed Johnson was born December 8, 1976 in Riverside, CA. He was drafted by the Jays in the 17th round of the 1999 amateur draft out of Cal State Fullerton where he was named an Academic All-American and played baseball and soccer. When you are drafted in the 17th round you have to work harder to make it to the majors and Reed definitely works as hard as any major leaguer. His high socks, great defense, hustle and willingness to take one for the team made him a fan favorite in Toronto.

Reed made the Jays coming out of spring training in 2003 and started the season as part of a platoon in RF with Frank Catalanotto. On July 16th Shannon Stewart was traded to the Minnesota Twins for Bobby Kielty and the platoon was moved to LF with Kielty playing RF. That first season Reed hit .294/.353/.427 scoring 79 runs and driving in 52. He hit 10 home runs, only walked 20 times but his on base percentage was helped by being hit by pitch 20 times, second in the league in that category. Reed made turning into a pitch an art form. Twice as a Jay he has tied the major league record by being hit by pitch 3 times in a game. He also had a 20 game hit streak this season. He was named AL Rookie of the Month for September.

In 2004 Reed continued in the LF platoon with Cat and filled in at CF and RF when needed. In 141 games he hit in every spot in the order during the season. He didn't have as good a season offensively batting .270/.320/.380, scoring 68 runs, driving in 61 with 10 home runs.

In 2005 Johnson was still in the platoon, he played a little less, coming into more games as a defensive replacement, but when he started it was more often at the top of the order, batting mostly in the 1 or 2 hole. He hit .269/.332/.412 with 8 home runs, 55 runs, 58 RBI and was hit by pitch 16 times.

Johnson had his career season, with the Jays, in 2006. He was everything you could want in a leadoff man hitting .319/.390/.479 scoring 86 runs and driving in 49 with 12 homers. He also led the AL with being hit by pitch 21 times. After starting the season in his usual platoon he became a full timer in July.

Early in the 2007 season he hurt his back and had surgery on a herniated disk. He came back to the team in early July, but clearly wasn't 100% for the rest of the season. He finished with his worse stats for a season hitting only .236/.305/.320 with career lows of 31 runs, 14 RBI and 2 home runs.

In the off-season before the 2008 season, the Jays signed David Eckstein, a similar type of player as Reed, to play shortstop and lead off. With Matt Stairs expected to play in LF, Reed looked to be back in a platoon role. Then inexplicably, at least to me, the Jays signed Shannon Stewart and in spring training, released Johnson. I still have no idea why you would release Johnson, who was a year removed from a career season to play Shannon Stewart who was several years removed from his last decent season. Add into the equation that Johnson could play all 3 outfield spots very well, while Stewart could only LF and very poorly at that.

Stewart, of course, played awful for the Jays and was released during the season, while Johnson hit .303/.358/.420 in 109 games with the Cubs. Thanks JP.

I know I like him far more than I really should, Reed isn't a perfect leadoff man, he'd be better if he would take some more walks, maybe cut down on his strikeouts and he doesn't steal a lot of bases. But his hustle, defense, a good arm in the outfield and his willingness to take one for the team makes him a great fourth outfielder type. Reed is married and has, likely, the worst little patch of facial hair in the major leagues.

Reed Johnson's ranking among Jay batting leaders:

11th Batting Average (>2000 PA) .281
10th On-Base % (>2000 PA) .342
27th Games with 610
27th At Bats with 2083
25th Runs 319
25th Hits 585
26th Total Bases 853
27th Doubles 114
31st RBI 234
41th Walks 119
23rd Strike Outs 384
27th Runs Created 292
2nd Hit By Pitch 80

Weekly Poll

2008-11-15T17:29:01Z

Since there isn't much Jay news to talk about this morning I thought we'd put up a poll, though the Yankee's offer to CC Sabathia does seem to open the discussion about another step up in player salaries, at a time when you'd have to guess that revenues are going to be down. I'd imagine Detriot Tiger revenues will be way down this year with the layoffs in the car industry. Yankees and the Mets are, likely, the only teams that will have a big revenue boost.

The huge contract offered to CC, 6 years and $140 million, will drive the price up for Burnett and in turn all the rest of the better free agent pitchers. I hope the Jays can afford someone.

Anyway, the movie poll has 'Major League' as the winner. Really? You guys think that was the best baseball movie ever? Oooookay fine. This week back to the best Jays polls, this time it is starting pitchers. We've had a number of good starters.

Poll

Who was the Jay's Best Starting Pitcher?

The Dangling Conversation: Ongoing Blue Jays Offseason Conversation

2008-11-14T14:04:51Z

Greetings, fellow corvid-philes. Simon and Garfunkel ring in our newest ongoing feature, which is going to be an ongoing back and forth conversation between the site's two main bloggers, rince and yours truly. We'll be asking each other questions and getting into the big questions of the offseason very soon, but let's first take a bit of a look back. Please e-mail us your questions or just leave them in the comments, and chime in as you see fit. Without further adieu:

Hugo: So what were the biggest positives and negatives for Jays’ fans to take away from this season?

Rincewind: Biggest positives? The bullpen was almost unbelievably good, considering Accardo and Janssen were hurt all season. Carlson came out of nowhere. Ryan came back from Tommy John much better than anyone could have hoped. Downs was brilliant, lights out, damn near perfect. League became the pitcher we hoped he would become. Tallet was great, Parrish did well as a reliever and even Shawn Camp and Jason Frasor had the odd useful moment. I am not sure all that all can happen again.

Hugo: Yeah, it’s amazing to think that the bullpen could even get better from last season’s unbelievable performance, but if Accardo returns healthy, Ryan continues to improve his control post-surgery and League pitches as he did last year for the whole season, anything is possible. I’m guessing that Frasor and Tallet will be gone next season, as they can be replaced with non-arbitration eligible arms. Ryan is also a possible trade candidate, but I’m not sure the Jays will be comfortable dealing him, especially with talk about using Downs and/or Janssen in the rotation next season. But with at least most of Downs-Ryan-Janssen-Accardo-League-Carlson Wolfe set to return, not to mention some good young pitchers in the Jays’ system, next season could be another great one for the pen.

There weren’t many positives offensively, but I did enjoy watching Vernon Wells come back with a healthy shoulder and do a fine job offensively in the games he was able to play. Rolen looked comfortable at the end of the season and Lind and Snider both showed glimpses of what they can do as offensive players.

The defense was great again, although the early metrics are suggesting it might be time for Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios to switch places in the outfield.

Rincewind: Offensively I think my favorite player to watch this season was likely Joe Inglett. He got on base well and had the occasional hit with RISP. It is too bad he can’t play SS, he’d be perfect there and leading off. And you are right Moonraker was fun to watch and Rolen’s new stance at the plate seemed to play off, I hope it carries over.

I guess we skipped maybe the biggest positive in Roy Halladay, his ‘problem’ is we expect him to have this sort of season every year so he gets ignored. Doc has so much value, not just for his pitching, which is terrific, but because every fifth day the bullpen gets a rest. With Purcey and Litsch rarely going deep into games it is good to have one game out of every 5 where you know at worst the pen will only have to give you a couple of innings and often not have to use the pen at all.

Until his injury Shawn Marcum was also amazing, at the end of June his ERA was 2.70. Litsch turned in a fine season too and AJ, who would have imagined he could make 34 starts in a season while striking out just about everyone.

Hugo: Great point about Doc. How about the negatives?

Rincewind: Negatives? Less power than I could have imagined, the odd home run early in the year would have made things so much better.

Hugo: The hitting was a huge bummer pretty much all season, I agree. It’d be easier to chalk it up to an off-year if the Jays hadn’t been so terrible at the plate in 2007 as well. What’s worse is that in 2007 the Jays were futile against righty pitching, and in 2008 they were awful against lefty pitching, with mostly the same lineup. So which do we focus on for next season? The trouble with the offense is that there are a lot of players who are offensively average and some who are below average for their positions, but no one who stands out offensively. Hitting for power was definitely a problem, but the Jays didn’t show much of a knack for getting on base either. Part of the problem is that their cornerstone offensive players, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, aren’t good at getting on base.

I would say that the biggest negatives were the loss of McGowan, Marcum, and Janssen to serious arm surgeries. Marcum and McGowan were well on their way to being above-average starters, and Janssen looked great in the spring in the starting role that it appeared the Jays were grooming him for. All three were home-grown, Marcum and Janssen looked like draft-day coups for Ricciardi, McGowan was finally living up to his first-round potential, and then it all came crashing down. Now Casey and Dustin will have to attempt recovery from labrum surgery, something many pitchers are not able to successfully do, and return this season, and both may be needed for starting roles. As for Marcum, he will miss the whole year with ligament replacement surgery, but one may be more confident in his long-term health.

Rincewind: I guess on the list of negatives another top one would be JP’s decision to sign Wilkerson and trade for Mench, which goes with his choice of sending Adam Lind back to the minors after only a handful of at bats. When he signed Wilk, to me, it put to a lie his line that this was the Jay’s season to make the playoffs. He needed to find a bat that could lift the offense (Bonds?), instead he picked up someone that the powerhouse Mariners gave up on.

This goes hand in hand with his decision to go into the season with two 40 year olds in important offensive positions with only one back up plan (Lind) in case their bats should slow. Add in his wonderful choice of Shannon Stewart over Reed Johnson and his not having a better back up for a Scott Rolen when he had to know that Rolen can’t play 150 games anymore.

So maybe the biggest negative was JP’s inability to see offensive weaknesses in his team.

Hugo: Yeah, the DH spot was a huge problem. For another team it wouldn’tve been such a big deal, but for a team like the Jays that was already giving away offense for defense at other positions, they really could not afford to have such poor production at the DH spot. We still have some offensive weak spots, and there’s no way we can afford another poor DH season this year. We don’t necessarily need a huge bat (though it sure would be nice), but we definitely need above-average offensive production from the spot. I tend to agree with you about J.P., using Mencherson for so many at-bats, dropping Lind after just 19 at-bats when the Jays didn't have anyone better, and dumping Thomas without a plan to replace him hurt the Jays a lot this season.

Hugo: Well, that's it for this time. Join us in a few days, when we will begin to really get into what the Jays might do, and what they need to do, this offseas and heading into next season!

Little Bits of Late Nite News

2008-11-14T06:12:59Z

Sad news......Fire Joe Morgan is shutting down. Since Joe Morgan has long been one of my least favorite baseball commentators, so I have enjoyed a site that is dedicated to making fun of him. But then, he is easy to make fun of. Very occasionally they would make fun of someone else and it was always great to read.

It looks like Kerry Wood's days with the Cubs are at an end. The Cubs traded for reliever Kevin Gregg from the Florida Marlins giving the Marlins pitcher Jose Ceda in return. Gregg had a 3.41 ERA and 29 saves this season with the Marlins. Kerry Wood is a free agent and is looking for a long term contract, but the Cubs decided they didn't want to give him one.

And in closer to home news, A.J. Burnett has filed for free agency...yeah, I know, we've known this was coming for awhile, but now it is official. Randy Johnson also filed today, tomorrow is the final day for players to file. Randy might be an interesting player for the Jays to go after. He'd likely only want a one year contract and being just 5 wins short of 300, he could be a good draw for the Jays.

The Jays who filed are AJ, John Parrish, Brad Wilkerson and Gregg Zaun. I don't think the Jays have interest in bring any of them back.

And in fun news, the town of Batman, Turkey is suing Warner Brothers and Dark Knight director Chistopher Nolan for using the name Batman without their premission. If it works out for them they plan on suing Thanksgiving for using turkeys without their premission. Yeah yeah, I know it has nothing to do with football but aren't you glad you know this?

Halladay Finishes Second in Cy Young Vote

2008-11-13T22:56:39Z

Cliff Lee got the Cy Young but at least Doc finished second. Lee received 132 points with 24 first place votes and 4 second. Doc had 4 firsts, 15 seconds and 6 third place votes. And yeah if you add them up, there were 4 BWAA voters that didn't think Doc was one of the three best pitchers in the AL. Those people's newspapers should fire them. obviously they know nothing about baseball.

KRod finished third with 32 points (7 second place votes). DiceK, Mariano Rivera, Mussina and Ervin Santana also received votes.

Yeah we knew Lee would win but it bugs me, again, that some voters were stupid enough to leave Doc off the list. Even being dumb enough to vote KRod second, for reasons that escape me, wouldn't you think they could at least put Doc third? I guess no one has claimed the writers are bright. In the NL a non-rookie got votes. If you can't at least make sure the one you are voting for is eligible for the award shouldn't you lose the right to vote?

I still think Doc was the best pitcher this season but I know that the writers most voters just look to see who had the most wins and put a check mark there. It is a sad world.