Bluebird Banter

Brad Wilkerson.....

rincewind — Fri, 09 May 2008 18:35:56 -0000

Everyone seems to think that the Jays are going to sign Brad Wilkerson....does this complete our set of players that were good several years ago? If this was 2001 we'd have one heck of a offensive team.

Wilkerson last hit above .250 in 2004, with 32 home runs and 106 walks....that was the last year that he was a good major league player. Now at 31 we sign him. Last year he hit .234 with a .319 OBA. Now I'll admit Lind had 19 poor at bats...but it was only 19 at bats...is there any reasonable reason to think that Wilkerson is a better player now than Lind.

Wilkerson will be a good match with Stewart who's last good season was also 2004, add in Rolen who's had one good season since 2004. Stairs had a good season last year but last time he had two good ones in a row was 2004/2005. Barajas' one good season was 2005 and good is a relative term .306 on base...best he's ever had, except last year, but he only had 122 at bats last year.

I don't know what's in JP's mind but the Jays are becoming a hard team to cheer for...I like what they have done with the pitching staff....developed good young pitchers and allowed them to thrive. But on the offensive side....they seem to be grabbing up any one that was good years ago and hoping they can turn back the clock and become 27 again.

Having one or two players that you hope can turn back time is ok if you have someone that can replace them if things done work out. But asking several to is a recipe for not contending.

Man on 3rd, less than 2 outs...

BeboThoughts — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 07:10:00 -0000

First off, I'd like to introduce myself. My name is Bebo and I am a longtime Cub fan (everyone can have a bad century!) and Chicago native. I have always had a passing love for the Jays, but it wasn't until last summer when I moved to Montreal (I hate French people now, btw) that I got to start to see the Jays reguarly and it's great. I've recently stumbled on this site and I hope to join in the fun.

Anyways, John Brattain wrote a nice little wrap up of the Jay's woes with man on 3rd and 0 or 1 outs here . He also talks about weather or not Gibbons should be fired (he says not yet which I think is fair) but the stats are pretty telling. In a nutshell:

Player Name: Runners batted in/ Opportunities

Alex Rios: 6/8
David Eckstein: 4/8
Marcos Scutaro: 5/7
Aaron Hill: 3/6
Lyle Overbay: 3/5
Shannon Stewart: 1/4
Vernon Wells: 1/4
Gregg Zaun: 1/4
Matt Stairs: 2/4
Joe Inglett: 2/3
Frank Thomas: 1/1
Rod Barajas: 0/1
Scott Rolen: 1/2 (Note : for some reason, he listed Rolen twice so I just combined them)

Total: 30/56 or about 54%

On the whole, they aren't great. Harping on this may be like going for a swim in a rainstorm because hitting with RISP has been the Jay's downfall so far this year, but man on 3rd less than 2 outs should be an almost guaranteed run.

I feel that if these numbers start to get up towards at least a 75% cash in rate, then that will mean more runs, obviously, but most importantly, it should start to take at least a little pressure off of the hitters. When they come up with RISP, EVERYONE knows they aren't gonna do jack (including the guys in the clubhouse and the opposing pitchers). Maybe this could be something Gibbons could really reinforce to slowly get the team off the crapper.

Everything I think....

rincewind — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 17:33:16 -0000

Mike Wilner's blog 'Miked up' Inexcusable says just about everything I think about the Jays at the moment, except he says he thought Stewart over Johnson was the right move at the time. I never thought it was and still think it was a decision made on money alone. And boy it it was foreshadowing every move made since. Anyway the link to the blog is http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/04/26/inexcusable/

I didn't think Gibbons should be fired before but if he continues to refuse to use Mac as a defensive replacement he ought to be fired quick and then used as an example of how not to manage. I knew Eck wasn't a great defensive shortstop but until I got the chance to watch him I didn't realize how bad he is.

Also if JP isn't calling up Lind to save a few dollars in the future, he should be fired too. Course I don't know any other job where you can made a $8 million mistake (Thomas) and keep your job. Anyone else here able to light a match to $8 of your employers money and then keep your job?

I agree the season isn't over....but....when you need to win 4 in a row to get to .500 you....things ain't good.

Depressing....

rincewind — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:15:43 -0000

Just had to comment on some things said in an artical on mlb.com....

<"We're due," Gibbons said. "We're close. You can tell." >

I like when teams say 'we're due'....kind of like saying 'everyone gets a turn winning, it will be our turn soon'. And no Gibby....you aren't close, we can tell. When you need to sweep a series to get back to .500 you aren't close.

<"We're playing well below our capabilities," Zaun said. "We have moments of brilliance and we get some great individual performances from people night in and night out. But, as a team, we haven't played a really solid nine-inning ballgame in a while.

"I think that, offensively, we're starting to do some things," he continued. "We're starting to get a little bit more consistent, but we're still a ways from the full capability of our squad. Hopefully, we'll get it going sooner than later." >

I'd like to know that those things they are starting to do offensively are? Moments of brilliance? Well, Stairs hit two home runs the other day.

Playing below their capabilities? Well, Scoot is hitting .200...I wouldn't expect too much more from him. Barajas is hitting .200. You can see why a team would let Frank Thomas go to get him into the line up more. Stewart is .229/.345/.292. Seems to fit what he has done over the last few years. Eck is hitting about where you'd expect...and reminding us daily how great Mac is defensively.

Looking at the team stats it doesn't seem that anyone isn't hitting around where one would expect them to at this point. Could use more power from Overbay but he is getting on at a .400 clip. Would like more power from Zaun, but then he's a 37 year old journyman catcher, he's not going to become Mike Piazza suddenly.

I'm hoping with Rolen things will be some better, but then Rolen hit .265 with 8 home runs last year....should we expect .330 with 30 home runs this year?

Am I the only one checking the 'transactions' tab on mlb.com several times a day hoping that Lind has been called up so I don't have to watch Stewart and/or one of several middle infielders play corner outfield spots? I'm hoping he gets called up soon and I hope they put him in the lineup everyday, vs rightys or leftys. Lets see if he can hit 25 home runs or prove that he's not going to be the outfielder of the future so we can sign one before next season.

Strange game....

rincewind — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 18:03:43 -0000

Started watching the Cardinal-Brewer game this morning and both teams have the pitcher batting 8th. I've heard managers talk about batting the pitcher 8th to allow the team to have two lead off men bascally. For the Brewers it seems dumb...have you pitcher batting 8th and Kendall batting ninth with a .345 average. St. Louis....has Izturis batting 9th hitting .179 while the pitcher is hitting .200. I would think the pitch is almost as good a hitter as Izturis. and Lohse hit a single and drove in a run.

Seems funny that both managers would do this the same game.....I can see one trying it but both deciding in dependantly to do it....I have my doubts. So, one would think they discussed it....or dared each other. In which case Larusa has out witted Yost. Having Kendall posibly lose an at bat and bat after a pitcher minimizes his .345 average somewhat while he has a lousy batter batting behind the pitcher. Which one of them is better at the plate is debatable....he's losing very little, if anything.

Robinzon Diaz....

rincewind — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 06:09:39 -0000

The Jays are calling up Robinzon Diaz to fill the spot that releasing Frank Thomas opened. I'm truly pissed....I really wanted them to bring up Lind. I think they need a left handed batter.

That being said Diaz is hitting .368/.390/.553, one homerun. My worry....Gibbons won't use him as a catcher. We'll be blessed with the sight of Barajas DHing and any number of middle infielders playing LF. Similtiously slowing Diaz's progress and hurting the Jay's offense.

With Stewart hurting and not hitting when he is in the line up I don't have high hopes for the offense. But maybe Gibbons will play Diaz. Maybe Stewart will play and play well or maybe he'll be DLed and then maybe Lind will be called up. And maybe our offense will improve......

I don't like them releasing Thomas, it bothers me that they say they want to win this year but then they make decisions based on money instead of baseball. But who knows....it might all work out.

I might win the lottery too......

Middle Relief

rincewind — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 03:31:05 -0000

Reliefs pitchers are such a crap shoot, it always seeme to me they shouldn't get long term contracts...look at the Jays. They start the season with Accardo as the closer and Wolfe and Wells in the pen. Accardo is various shades of awful....and Wolfe and Wells get sent down and released, respectively.

Then they call up Carlson....who no one would have guessed to be one of our relievers this winter and he becomes the best arm in the pen at least at the moment, out of no where.

Then Camp....who sported a wonderful 7.20 ERA in 50 games last year. 7.20! After a season like that a guy generally won't get another chance for years. But up he comes and he gets put in a pressure spot right away and does great.

Now expecting both to continue to pitch this well, is too much to hope for I'm sure. Carlson...I think should be called Cy, but I do wonder if his delivery hides the ball some. I wonder if major league hitters will catch on soon.

Camp apparently has a new pitch, but I can't remember a time that a pitcher found a new pitch at 32 years old and totally remade himself. So I wouldn't look to it to last.

NYC Jays fans: Meet some of your Orioles brethren tonight

zknower — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:41:39 -0000

Hello Hostiles:

A bunch of us NYC Orioles fans are meeting at a Phebe's in the East Village tonight to watch the Blue Jays battle the O's for first place. We can promise some mild-to-moderate trash talk and a fair amount of beer consumption. They have Molson on tap (alhtough I will be drinking Stella).

And I can guarantee there will be no idiotic discussion of who put a stupid shirt under concrete somewhere.

Details in this post at Camden Chat.

Hope to see you there, eh?

NH Fisher Cats

Hardball Warriors — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 20:03:53 -0000

The New Hampshire Fisher Cats held their annual meet & greet in Manchester, New Hampshire earlier this week.

If you're interested, you can view pictures of the 2008 New Hampshire Fisher Cats players.

Enjoy!

Jamie Campbell you're an idiot.

Quinton — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 02:30:15 -0000

Alright I have had enough of this guy. I have sat through his painfull learning curve (not that this guy would know a curve ball if he was tossed one) but it is just so damn frustrating to listen to this guy. I often watch the Jays games like I do my beloved Canadians on RDS...which is by using the MUTE button. I can put up with Tabby, I know he isnt Buck Martinez but he is better than Darrin Fletcher. So here goes...just a few of my observations from Friday night's game...

1) Obviously he has been paying attention to Paul O'Neil and his comments about Eck. "Gritty"..bah. For a guy who is seeing about 3 pitches per at bat, he seems less than gritty.

2) Jesse Litch is NOT i repeat NOT a rookie this year...check your head.

3) Announcing that Stewart was pitch hitting for Stairs would have been better suited while the atbat was still going on...not after Stew had reached 1st on a single. This may have been during the rant about how Accardo was just as good as Ryan. Bingo.

Alex Rios Extension

RedSoxMedford — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 15:31:45 -0000

I just heard JP Riccardi on WEEI radio in Boston say that the Blue Jays have a press conference scheduled for 3 today to announce the extension of Alex Rios, plus he added there is something else to announce but will wait until today at 3. I think this is a great signing for the Jays and its too bad he wont be hitting the free agent pool anytime soon, I would love to see him playing for my Red Sox because JD Drew is terrible.

Hey, Joe Sheehan Doesn't Hate Us

Asharak — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 14:27:35 -0000

Baseball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan has published his AL Predictions for 2008 (subscription required) and, breaking from the tradition of recent seasons, he's, well, not entirely pessimistic about the Jays.

I won't post his comments in full here, since it's a subscription article, but he has the Jays projected for a 91-71 record - tied for fourth in the AL with the Indians - based on a +85 run differential and says, "there’s enough offensive upside here in Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen for them to steal the division." On the down side, he has both the Red Sox and Yankees projected for better records so we're still being relegated to a third-place, no-postseason finish.

It's quite a reversal of opinion, since last year he expected the Jays to be the 3rd-worst team in the AL, finishing with a 76-86 record and a -45 run differential. Of course, he was off by 7 wins and 99 runs last year, so take his predictions with a grain of salt.

Personally, I find Joe's optimism to be far more encouraging than the endless hype pieces that the Toronto-based media has been publishing for the last month. The numbers themselves are always open to debate but, when a reasonably dispassionate and skeptical analyst like Sheehan sees this much improvement in the team, it gives me hope that this year there might be real progress buried beneath all the ticket-selling tripe.

- Ash

Welcome to the new Bluebird Banter and SB Nation

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The Great Clutch Project

Tue, 25 Mar 2008 17:08:37 -0000

The Great Clutch Project

Time to put up or shut up:
http://www.tangotiger.net/clutch/

I'm looking for the guy you want with the game on the line, compared to his TEAMMATES, not necessarily compared to himself in non-clutch situations.

============

"So, you think you know who is the clutch hitter on your team? You think you know who you want at bat with the game on the line? Well, let's find out.

Go through your favorite team's roster, and select the one GREAT clutch hitter, the one guy you want at bat, when the game is on the line. One selection will do. If you like, you can go through each player, and note how good or bad a clutch hitter he is.

I will go through the same list of players, and simply select the best hitter on the team, period. We'll come into conflict in a few places, like with the Cardinals (Pujols), and Angels (Vlad). In that case, we'll go to our number 2 guys. "

Is McGowan for real this season?

Mon, 24 Mar 2008 15:50:59 -0000

I hope McGowan can be a dominant pitcher for the Birds this season, and last year was GREAT! I know people say he had some easy match-ups, but I just saw this site, http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com
and these guys seem to think he is the real deal.

I am still on the fence. Can he help get us in the playoffs?

Johnson released.....

Sun, 23 Mar 2008 19:11:20 -0000

The Jays released Reed Johnson today...making Shannon Stewart the Right handed half of a left field plattoon.

I can't see it myself....when was the last time Stewart hit even as well as a league average LF. We are giving up a corner outfield spot to a guy who hasn't slugged .400 in how many years? Gets onbase about an average amount and has no speed anymore. That's how we are going to catch the Yankees?

Oh well, maybe we won't see any left handed pitchers this year.....

Who's most likely to be come back player of the year?

Tue, 18 Mar 2008 23:52:48 -0000

Reading a Sports Weekly batch of predictions someone wrote that in picking come back player of the year just throw a dart at the Blue Jay's roster....odds are you'll hit a good candidate.

So got me thinking who is the mostly likely come back player of the year from the Jays?

Posiblities....

Rod Barajos, C. Last year batter .230 in just 146 plate appearances. Had 21 Home Runs in 2005, but the more I look at him the more I wonder why the Jays have wanted him the last couple of years.

Gregg Zahn, C. Batted 242/.341/.411 in 391 PB. So really wasn't that much worse than average season for him other than a couple of injuries.

Lyle Overbay, 1B. Batted .240/.315/.391 in 476 PA. First real candidate...hurt a lot of the year, awful the rest, after a career season the year before.

Scott Rolen, 3B. Batted .265/.331/.398 in 441 PA. Lots of injuries the last few years. Not exactly someone that keeps himself in great shape...

Reed Johnson, LF. Hit .236/.305/.320 in 307 PA. Injured after a career year in 2006.

Vernon Wells, CF. Hit .245/.304/.402. The Jays blamed a sore arm for the bad year....after signing a big contract during the off season.

B.J. Ryan, RP. Basically didn't pitch....so if he does much of anything he'd be a good candidate.

Brandon League, RP. Basically didn't pitch. Course 'come back player' suggests someone that actually was very good at some point.

Out of the bunch of them I'm hoping Vernon Wells would earn it award but I'm guessing Overbay.

Poll

Who is most likely to be Jay's come back player of the year?

Can the Jays improve by 13 games

Sun, 16 Mar 2008 18:57:14 -0000

The Jays missed the playoffs by 13 games last season, so I'm wondering where we can improve by enough to make up that 13 games.

Catcher...Zahn had a good season with the bat but he was injured some and the backups the Jays used were different shades of awful. Barajas should be better as a back up and if there is an injury Thigpen has more experiance, hopefully they would go to him over some washed up old backup.
Let's say they could improve by a 1.5 games at Catcher.

First base....Overbay was either injured or terrible all last season, but when he was injured Stairs played much much better than anyone could have imagined at first. I wouldn't expect Stairs to have the same type of season but if Overbay plays like he did in 2006 they could be 2 games better at first on average.

Second base....Hill was amazing last year, 17 home runs after 6 a year before....I wouldn't expect him to improve but let's hope he's even with last year.

Shortstop....I dislike the change of Eckstein for McDonald...MacDonald's defense, to me, more than makes up for the slight edge Ecktein has offensively...but with one of them and Marco Scutaro available on the bench they have improved, just because the bench was so bad last year...let's say they might improve by a game.

Third Base.....Well....Rolen for Glaus? We can hope Rolen plays more games than Glaus did and Rolen's D will be much better than Glaus'. Who knows what Rolen might do offensively....Let's guess that they'll be roughly the same at third.

Left Field...Tough to figure...Stairs was great last year...I can't believe he'll be as great this year. Johnson was hurt or awful all last year, Stewart hasn't been league average at LF in years. Personally I'd love them to give the job to Lind and see what he can do. Let's guess they'll be half a run better in Left.

CF...Wells was poor in Cf last year but they say he was hurt...if that was why he was poor and he plays like the Wells of 2006 he would be 5 games better than last year. I'm not that hopeful...let's guess he'll be 3 games better.

RF...Rios was great last year...and he seems to be improving each season. Hoping he doesn't miss time with injuries, let's guess he'll improve by half a game.

DH...I'd love to see Thomas start the season better...but his final numbers were about as good as you could have wanted. He's 40 this year, but I'm going he is less awful for the first couple of months and ends with a season roughly equal to last year.

So Offensively I think they could improve by 8.5 games...all being well.

Starting pitching....The starting rotation turned very good last year but at the start of the year they had too many starts by guys who shouldn't have been in the majors. Give the games started by Ohka and Towers to Macrum and Litsch et al. I don't expect Litsch to be as good this year but he's better than Towers. Without any injuries they should be better...But Gibbons' love to leave guys out there for 110 the 130 pitches. Burnett can't handle that and stay healthy. I'm not sure Halladay can continuously. They don't have the depth they had last year...with Janssen hurt...
All in all IF they stay fairly healthy they could be 2 games better at SP just with the Towers and Ohka not starting.

Bullpen...Last season the relievers were much better than anyone could have hoped after the injury to Ryan. This year it looks like Ryan will be back...if he is he would be an improvement at closer mostly because last year they tried a few guys at closer before settling on Accardo, who was better than anyone could have hoped. The loss of Janssen is a big hit but hopefully League will pitch the way we all hope he can. Signing Benitez helps the depth. Can Downs, Tallet, and Wolfe be as good this year? Will Frasor be useful? I'm hoping that Ryan will be healthy and less time will be spent settling on who's doing what. And Victor Zambrano won't pitch! I'm hoping they can be half a game better.

So, by my guesses they could be 11 games better than last year....all going well. It's not quite 13 games and with how much Detroit has improved I'm not sure that improving by 13 games would be enough. But I'm also hoping Gibbons has learned something from last year and won't cost us as much as he did last year. Also the Red Sox look to have some injury trouble and the Yankees are old and ummmm young, maybe the old guys will drop off and maybe the young guys won't be ready.

I truly think this is the season the Jays have to step it up and I'm hoping they will.

Dusty Baker

jessef — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 22:25:09 -0000

Although this doesn't have to do with the Jays, I think some may find it interesting. It is already pretty old, some of you may have seen it, but it is an article on what makes Dusty Baker a good manager (in other words, it's good for a laugh).

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080309/COL03/803090373/

Adam Lind?

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 14:38:35 -0000

Have the Jays missed the moment for Lind. I used to hear that he had 40 home run power, but he's not been mentioned at all for the LF job this year and he's seemingly being passed by Travis Snider as a prospect. At 24 he should soon either get a job or be yesterday's news.

I like Stewart and Stairs and Johnson but if the Jays are going to improve shouldn't someone with a bit more upside be given a shot at LF. You have three guys there that aren't going to suddenly surprise you by making the All Star team or something. Best you can hope for with them is they have as good a season as their last decent one. For Stairs, last year was good, anyone really think he can equal it? Stewart? He's been ok the last few years. Anyone think ok is something we should shoot for in LF? And Johnson was an great leadoff man two years ago, his career best season by far but what are the odds he might do that again?

Tom Dakers,
Calgary, AB

Bluebird Banter

Brad Wilkerson.....

Man on 3rd, less than 2 outs...

Everything I think....

Depressing....

Strange game....

Robinzon Diaz....

Middle Relief

NYC Jays fans: Meet some of your Orioles brethren tonight

NH Fisher Cats

Jamie Campbell you're an idiot.

Alex Rios Extension

Hey, Joe Sheehan Doesn't Hate Us

Welcome to the new Bluebird Banter and SB Nation

What Has Changed

SB Nation Network Accounts - the Big Change

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The Great Clutch Project

Is McGowan for real this season?

Johnson released.....

Who's most likely to be come back player of the year?

Who is most likely to be Jay's come back player of the year?

Can the Jays improve by 13 games

Dusty Baker

Adam Lind?