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2008 Keys to Success, Part I - Vernon Wells

In this series, we'll take a look at some keys to success for the 2008 team if they are to make the playoffs and do a little delving into their likely outcome, based on a combination of statistics and observation. Our first edition will focus on the Jays' franchise player, Vernon Wells. Wells' poor performance last season, coming on the heels of a huge 7 year, $126 million contract, was one of the biggest reasons that the Jays offense struggled as it did, and it is still unclear to what extent it was impacted by Wells' injured left shoulder, upon which surgery was performed at the end of last season.

Here are Wells' stats over the past three seasons:

Year       PA  H     2B   HR   BB/K  AVG    OBP    SLG   BABIP    LD%    FB%    GB%
2005      678  167   30   28  0.55   .269   .320   .463   .275   19.4%   40.2%   40.4%
2006      677  143   40   32  0.60   .303   .357   .542   .313   18.3%   40.2%   41.5%
2007      642  185   36   16  0.55   .245   .304   .402   .265   16.8%   43.9%   39.3%

At first blush, Wells' 2007, although by far his worst season (85 OPS+) doesn't look to dissimilar from his 2005, and, in fact, 2006 looks like the real outlier, and looks like it might have been fueled by BABIP, which is generally recognized as something that hitters have some, but not total, control over. However, if one looks a little bit closer, there are some subtle differences that come into focus. First, Wells' isolated power was way down (.158 as opposed to .197 lifetime and .194 in his "bad" season of 2005.) It is very unusual for a healthy 29-year old to suddenly experience a power outage. Second, Wells' line drive percentage (LD%) was the lowest of his career, and his fly ball percentage (FB%) was highest. An increase in flyball percentage can actually be a good thing for power hitters, since outfield fly balls are only slightly more likely to become outs than ground balls and more outfield fly balls generally means more home runs. However, in Vernon's case, the increased FB% corresponded with a precipitous rise in infield fly balls, which are a bad outcome for a hitter. Vern's IFF% jumped from only 12.2% in 2006 to a whopping 19.1% in 2007. Combining Vernon's K% with his IFF%, we're looking at a 2007 in which 35% of the time, Vernon struck out or hit an infield fly - so it's no wonder that his BABIP was the lowest of his career. Vernon also hit a lot of infield flies in 2003, a very good season for him, and 2005, a "bad" season, but in those seasons, his K rate was substantially lower than in 2007.

Based on these factors, it appears as if there's a good chance that Vernon's shoulder substantially affected his season. As anyone who has played competitive ball knows, the lead shoulder (left shoulder for righties, right shoulder for lefties) is vital to hitting (not the greatest news for Rolen, I know) - it is the lead shoulder that drives the bat through the zone. It makes sense that restricted movement and power in the left shoulder would cut line drive percentage, while at the same time causing a greater than usual number of pop-ups. Certainly the shoulder was not the only cause, as Wells has had similar looking seasons before, but none have been nearly this bad. While I think of Wells as a feel hitter, it's worth noting that his discipline was not impacted in his bad 2007 (his BB% was less than .5% lower in 2007 than 2006 and actually higher than 2005), which suggests that the cause is mechanics, for which a shoulder injury could easily be a cause. To the mostly untrained observer, it definitely looked like Wells was having trouble putting good swings on balls, popping up many outside pitches even in good hitters' counts.

Wells underwent surgery in September to repair a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder and to remove a cyst. The injury was apparently ailing Wells for most if not all of the season, but Wells missed almost no time (until he was shut down) and didn't admit he was feeling pain until well into the season. The labrum was repaired, but the cyst was not removed as it was apparently too close to a nerve. Wells is apparently feeling much better and expects to be at full strength for spring training.

Here are some projections for Wells 2008 season:

Projection        PA  H     2B   HR   BB  AVG    OBP    SLG   BABIP    Iso-P
James           619  158   37   23   46   .276   .333   .471   .290   .195
Chone           618  150   33   22   50   .261   .328   .451   .280   .186
Marcel          589  144   32   20   46   .270   .328   .458   .288   .188
ZIPS            652  161   34   24   51   .268   .330   .454   ---   .186

As you can see, James basically expects Wells' to rebound and put up a season more or less exactly in line with career norms, while the others expect Wells to be almost 80 points better in OPS over 2007 but not as good as he's been in the past. All the projection systems have Wells as an above-average CF (generally good for about a .770 OPS) which, combined with his defense, makes him a valuable player. However, no one is expecting a season anything like 2006, where he managed a .900 OPS (second-highest in his career to 2003).

The stats, projections, and injury outlook all suggest that Wells will rebound to be a valuable player in 2008. The question is (besides the obvious question whether that's worth $126 million!) whether that will be enough for the Jays. Wells is a critical piece of the offense. Our daring, out-on-a-limb projection: maybe. Please contribute your outlook on Wells' upcoming season and what it means for our heroic Corvidae in the comments!

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Wells
I really don't know what to think about Wells. While statistically unmeasurable, Wells took a lot of unnecessary swings in key situations. I would've liked to see him to see him more patient especially if was struggling through an injury.

We need Wells to do well. I really believe our pitching is going to regress a little as out pitching was absolutely amazing last season. The bats really just need to step up to make up that difference.

by achengy on Jan 21, 2008 8:02 PM EST reply actions  

Wells
Wells' "cyst" was not removed but it was "drained" and is not a problem. That is according to a report by Jordan Bastien at MLB.COM in December.

I've always seen Wells as a Joe Carter clone. Except he is capable of hitting for a higher batting average. Neither of those guys were very good at getting on base. BUT, both could drive in lots of runs.

This year the key to the Jays resurrection will rest on the two repaired shoulders of Rolen and Wells and the surgically repaired hands of Overbay and Zaun.

All these injured guys returning to various degrees of health is part of the reson why the batting order is so difficult to speculate on. Personally I'd be delighted to see Rolen end up as the number three guy.

God willin' an' the river don't rise.

by Mylegacy on Jan 21, 2008 11:08 PM EST reply actions  

hey mylegacy
thanks for the clarification - I was relying on an earlier report that didn't mention the draining.

Overbay and Rolen will be featured in later chapters of the "Keys for 2008," so stick around if you're interested. My plan is to talk to some sports medicine professionals in the later chapters. I haven't decided yet whether to look at Zaun as a critical piece or not yet, since I tend to believe that Thigpen (and/or Diaz) could replace Zaun and put up similar overall numbers, notwithstanding his difficulties last season. I really hope if Zaun gets hurt we don't get treated to a month or more of Phillips/Fasano. I will also be looking at the number 5 starter spot and its candidates and I'm not sure what else yet.

By the way, I really enjoy your contributions at Batters Box. One thing we definitely lack around here is a resident optimist!

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 22, 2008 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Optimist? Moi?
Bah Humbug!

I like this type of discussion, especially in darkest January.

I've never been too high on Wells as a hitter. He's streaky even when he's going good. I would have traded him before we signed him for 45 years and 77 trillion bucks.

I'm praying he proves me wrong. I think he'd be a lot better if he used steroids. Could be, I should introduce him to my friend Clemens - the guy I get mine from!

by Mylegacy on Jan 22, 2008 6:05 PM EST reply actions  

I could've used some roids
as my bro can well attest, I was all glove, very little bat at the 6 - a bit like J-Mac really, but with Sparky's propensity for getting beaned!

No doubt, Wells is what I like to call a feel hitter. When he's got his feel, nothing gets by him, he takes tough pitches for balls and pounds everything else - but when his feel is off, he looks lost at the plate. Last season it looked like he was about to pounce on a 2-0 pitch, only to see him pop it up. I, too, was in favor of trading him, mostly because I thought Rios could basically fill CF at far less cost and the Jays could look elsewhere or even use Lind as the corner man. Of course, if Wells hits like he can, he'll be a huge asset, and it ain't my money!

And I'll have you know that Clemens' lawyer assures me that he never took any steroids. And if you can't trust a lawyer, who can you trust?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 22, 2008 11:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Coupla things...
We gotta give the big V a Mulligan for 07 - the guy had a bum shoulder.

You say... "Clemens' lawyer assures me that he never took any steroids." I believe the lawyer never took steroids - but Clemens - that's a different matter!

I really think that if there ever was a March to spend in Dunedin this would be the one. Gonna be 40 to 50 players each with their own Doctors, own Chiropractors and Physiotherapists. AND, there should be some good ball too!

by Mylegacy on Jan 23, 2008 12:49 AM EST up reply actions  

for sure
Would love to make it down to Dunedin this spring.

And I actually like Wells a ton - while he might be overrated by some, he's still a solid player and seems like just an all-around great guy. I give him a lot of credit for sticking it out in 2007 as long as he did, knowing how decimated the Jays were by injuries but that they were still not quite out of it.

I just hope shoulder is feeling better and that he's ready to lead the Jays to glory in '08!

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 25, 2008 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Fact
you could have used some roids.  even still, it is better to be all-glove than all-mouth.  unlike me, at least you didn't receive a lifetime ban from little league.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" --Apu Nahasapeemapetilon

by jessef on Jan 25, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

and
thus was a bright future at the hot corner cut short. You deserved better!
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 25, 2008 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

uuuuuum
Our first edition will focus on the Jays' franchise player, Vernon Wells. Wells' poor performance last season, coming on the heels of a huge 7 year, ...

by gerutyitth on Jan 31, 2008 7:49 PM EST reply actions  

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