FanPost

2008 ZiPS Projections

Baseball Think Factory has the ZiPS projections for the 2008 Blue Jays available for perusal. They were posted a few days ago, and while I haven't gone through them with a fine-toothed comb, I'll offer some initial impressions:

The Good:

  • Alex Rios is no fluke: he's projected to be our best hitter, with a .293/.356/.488 line.
  • B.J. Ryan is expected to return from TJ surgery without missing a beat: over 100 Ks in 78 IP, and a 2.08 ERA.
  • most of the rest of the bullpen: Janssen, Accardo, Downs and Frasor are all projected for sub-4.00 ERAs, and Tallet misses that class by just two-hundredths of a run.
  • Jesse Litsch: I'll believe this projection when it happens, but ZiPS sees him throwing 187 innings with a 4.43 ERA and a 92/36 K/BB.
  • Adam Lind is going to arrive: a .276/.326/.457 will put him on par with Vernon Wells's projection (see "The Bad", below), and puts him above Matt Stairs.
  • The Bad:
  • Shaun Marcum: despite a 121/43 K/BB projection, Marcum's HR rate is expected to eat him alive, as he'll allow 29 longballs in 162 IP and finish with a 4.67 ERA.
  • Brandon League is done. ZiPS doesn't project velocity, but it does project just 56 Ks in 92 IP, and puts League's ERA .4 runs below the level of even an average reliever.
  • Vernon Wells: he's still above an average centerfielder, but his projected .268/.330/.454 ain't hardly worth $120 million.
  • John McDonald's .244/.289/.313 projection isn't exactly bad by the standards of his previous production, but it doesn't support giving the guy so much as a free Timbit, never mind $3.8 million over 2 years.
  • despite being our best hitters not named Rios, neither Glaus nor Thomas will play a full season, with 469 and 447 ABs respectively.
  • All in all, the projections look pretty similar to how the Jays performed this year: good pitching, bad offense, and limited playing time for the linchpins of the lineup. Perhaps the biggest overall worry is that only four position players are projected to have OBPs over .340 (with none over .360), and only one of those is expected to play every day.

    Anyone else have a different take on the numbers?

    - Ash

    Editor's Note: This is a FanPost written by a reader and member of Bluebird Banter. It was not commissioned by the editors and is not necessarily reflective of the opinions of Bluebird Banter or SB Nation.