Continuing our look at how the Baseball Prospectus projections compared to how our Blue Jays did in real life.
Roy Halladay
W L G GS IP H BB SO HR ERA
Projected 16 7 31 31 225.1 232 48 139 15 3.72
Season 20 11 34 33 246.0 220 39 206 18 2.78
Doc, well you don't need my to tell you he had an amazing year, a full run per game better ERA than they projected. And his strikeout rates was far better than they thought, with fewer walks in more innings. And 4 more wins than they figured he would have. You know you've had a a great year when you are project to be terrific and you do much much better than the projection.
A.J. Burnett
W L G GS IP H BB SO HR ERA
Projected 10 8 25 25 165.2 131 66 176 23 3.75
Season 18 10 35 34 221.1 211 86 231 19 4.07
Gee it is surprising that BP wouldn't have thought AJ wouldn't have 34 starts. You think anyone figured he could get thru a season without an injury. Other than that he wasn't quite as good as they thought he would be. His hit rate was higher than they thought and his ERA was higher, though his home run rate was lower. And he had a lot more wins than they projected. So in all he didn't wasn't as good as they thought he'd be but he had the luck of getting thru the season with getting hurt and he was luckier in picking up wins.
Jesse Litsch
W L G GS IP H BB SO HR ERA
Projected 7 9 20 20 111.0 116 36 50 14 3.81
Season 13 9 29 28 176.0 178 39 99 20 3.58
He pitched a lot more than they guessed, his walk and strikeout rate was better and so was his ERA. He really was good this year, He really doesn't have to get too much better to be one of the real good ones in the league.
Shawn Marcum
W L G GS IP H BB SO HR ERA
Projected 12 6 38 25 159.0 149 49 122 27 4.13
Season 9 7 25 25 151.1 126 50 123 21 3.39
Well, they got the number of starts right were close in innings, walk rate and strikeout rate. But he was much much better than they projected. He gave up a lot fewer homers. I think the Jays will miss him more than AJ next season. Came up short on the number of wins...hardly his fault.
Dustin McGowan
W L G GS IP H BB SO HR ERA
Projected 12 10 27 27 169.2 146 61 144 14 4.08
Season 6 7 19 19 111.1 115 38 85 9 4.37
Dustin's projection was quite close to what really happened, how were they to know his arm would fall off. Well, actually as a young pitcher whose innings pitched took a big leap the year before, there was a good chance something might happen.
David Purcey
W L G GS IP H BB SO HR ERA
Projected 4 7 25 17 94.0 105 62 69 15 6.43
Season 3 6 12 12 65.0 67 29 58 9 5.54
They figured he'd pitch more than he did, don't know why when they figure a 6.43 ERA, why would you give someone like that the ball. He had a much better strikeout rate and much better walk rate than they projected. A small step forward would make him a pretty valuable pitcher. Gotta like a guy that strikes out 8/9 innings.
We will look at the relievers Monday.