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Carl Panano Signs With Indians

A name mentioned around here as a cheap starting pitching option has signed with the Indians:

Pavano is guaranteed $1.5 million and a spot in the rotation for 2009, with the possibility to earn another $5.3 million in performance-based incentives. The incentives don't kick in until Pavano notches at least 18 starts. The deal does not include an option.

With how much others have been signing for, this doesn't seem like that much of a bargain to me. I'm kind of glad he didn't sign with us. What are the odds he gets to 18 starts?