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Bill James Player Projections

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One of the perks of playing on here is occasionally I'll get some email and once in a blue moon it won't be Viagra spam. One of my favorite reference books that I get at the end of each season is the Bill James Handbook, that comes out now from ACTA Sports. One of the fun parts of the book is their Player Projections and they have sent me a preview of it. So I've been a happy little camper searching through it and checking out the Jay players.

Now the projections...well every year they get some very right, they are close on a lot and they miss quite a few but it is fun

So let's check some of the Jay batters:

Rod Barajas   232/.278/.402/.679  20 doubles, 14 HR, 41 Run, 52 RBI, 3.70 RC/27, 114 G

No surprise, they expect much the same sort of season as last year. His OPS was .661 in 2009 so very much the same season, slightly better on base. A few less games, he will be 34 so expecting him to be pretty much injury free again might be hopeful.  

J.P. Arencibia   .225/.254/.426/.679  27 doubles, 17 Hr, 44 Runs, 53 RBI, 3.59 RC/27, 114 G

This is one of their ‘if he were to play' projections. With Rod a free agent, they want to have a projection for him, in case we don't have anyone else. They figure his numbers not to be any worse than Barajas. I'll admit I agree, I think he could do much the same job as Rod, if given a chance.

Raul Chavez  .235/.266/.318/.583 8 doubles 2 Hr, 2.80 RC/27, 14 Run, 17 RBI, 64 G

Raul was fine as a back up this year and likely would be again next year but no one will mistake him for a hitter. He will be 37 this coming year.

Lyle Overbay  .267/.359/.443/.803 34 doubles, 15 Hr, 5.63 RC/27, 60 Run, 63 RBI, 140 G

Not a terrible exciting season for Lyle, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were very close on this one. I'd like to hope he would hit better than .267 but is likely right.

Aaron Hill  .283/.337/.463/.800 35 doubles, 20 Hr, 5.55 RC/27, 78 Runs, 76 RBI,138 G

Likely fair, I'd like to hope he'll be over 20 homers but that's a safe guess. If Cito is manager I'd expect him to play more games than that.

Marco Scutaro  264/.347/.381/.728 30 doubles, 10 Hr, 4.59 RC/27, 79 Runs, 57 RBI, 147 G

A bit of a drop from this year, I'd bet on the over on the OBP but that's me.

John McDonald  234/.270/.317/.587 6 doubles, 2 Hr, 2.79 RC/27, 16 runs, 12 RBI, 60 G


Kevin Millar .242/.342/.395/.737 11 doubles, 6 Hr, 4.51 RC/27, 24 Run, 24 RBI, 75 G

Seems awfully optimistic to me. Please not with the Jays, ok?

We'll look at the rest of the batters later on.