Part three of our look at the Bill James Player Projections for our Blue Jay players, this time we look at the pitchers. Part one is here and part two is here. These come from the Bill James Handbook, that will come out soon from ACTA Sports.
Roy Halladay 33 Starts, 240 IP, 179 K, 17-10, 3.23 ERA
They are expecting him to have basically the same season as this one. A slightly higher ERA than this year and a few less strike outs, but other than that a repeat of this year. A pretty safe bet.
Ricky Romero 30 Starts, 190 IP, 147 K, 7-14, 5.59 ERA
Get the feeling they aren't sold on Romero? I'll take the under on ERA. I'd doubt he would get 30 starts with that kind of season but you never know.
Scott Richmond 26 Starts, 145 IP, 124 K, 6-10, 5.03 ERA
Tough to know what Richmond might do, he started the season great and ended it terribly.
Shaun Marcum 22 Starts, 120 IP, 99 K, 6-7, 4.05 ERA
Guessing how a player will return from Tommy John surgery is impossible. This is likely as good as any guess.
Brett Cecil 18 Starts, 98 IP, 85 K, 4-7, 4.87 ERA
They also have him hitting 15 batters which seem like a bunch.
Brian Tallet 50 G, 3 Starts, 85 IP, 63 K, 4-5, 4.34
Looks like a good guess to me.
Dustin McGowan 17 Starts, 80 IP, 68 K, 4-5, 4.05
Again, how to guess what he'd do, after missing the whole season with arm troubles, I have no idea. So that is as good a guess as any.
Jesse Litsch 15 Starts, 75 IP, 46 K, 4-4, 4.30.
I really doubt we'll see him after Tommy John last year. But he might get into a few game at the end of the season.
Shawn Camp 50 G, 70 IP, 52 K, 3-4, 4.50.
Camp had a 3.50 ERA this year but I would expect something closer to what they are guessing.
Jesse Carlson 71 G, 67 IP, 59 K, 4-4, 3.90.
Seems fair.
Jason Frasor 58 G, 58 IP, 55 K, 4-3, 3.41, 1 SV
I'd expect more than one save but you never know.
Scott Downs 55 G, 54 IP, 45 K, 3-3, 3.67, 16 SV
I'm hoping he isn't as brittle next year.
David Purcey 10 Starts, 58 IP, 52 K, 2-4, 5.12
They also have him down for 31 walks. I think this goes under the ‘he might play' column.
Josh Roenicke 30 G, 42 IP, 46 K, 3-2, 3.64
Looks pretty good to me, I'd like him to have a decent role on the team.
Casey Janssen 33 G, 2 Starts, 41 IP, 26 K, 2-2, 4.39.
Whoops missed:
Brandon League 67 G, 77 IP, 61 K, 4-5, 4.32, no saves.
Thanks ohmybosh. I will take the under on the ERA. And the over on saves.
If you are keeping score that gives us a 77-84 record, I guess I would hope for better.