Baseball Prospectus has their PECOTA ratings out and their projected 2010 standings. By their numbers our Jays are going to come in last, in the AL East, with a 71/91 record. 773 runs scored, 878 runs allowed, .258 BA, 329 OBP and 427 SLG. We'll be 8 game behind the Orioles. The Rays will finish first, a game up on the Red Sox and 3 ahead of the Yankees.
So they figure us 4 games worse than last year. 25 less runs scored. 107 more runs allowed. An 8 point drop in BA, 4 point drop in OBP and 13 point drop in SLG. Where last year we score 27 more runs than we allowed, this year we'll be a big -105.
I don't know, yeah our pitching won't be as good without Doc, but the 107 run difference can't be explained just by losing him. Last year after Doc, 4 of the next 5 most used starting pitchers were rookies, the other being Brian Tallet. Wouldn't you expect a slight improve by those 4.
They figure our starting pitching to be:
Ricky Romero 28 starts, 5.45, 6-11. 156 innings.
Shaun Marcum: 15 starts, 4.29, 4-5, 77 innings.
In the pen, Jason Frasor gets 25 saves with a 4.02 ERA, Scott Downs gets 9 saves with a 3.92 ERA. The rest of the pen has ERAs in the 4's except Dirk Hayhurst 5.46 and Zechry Zinicola at 5.53.
Hitters? The batting order:
1. Vernon Wells improves little: 264/.326/.440 with 20 homers.
2. Lyle Overbay has a poor year: .258/.347/.415, 14 homers.
3. Aaron Hill: .281/.342/.480, 25 HR
4. Adam Lind, in LF: .276/.338/.481, 25 HR.
5. Edwin Encarnacion: .263/.347/.481, 25 HR.
6. Travis Snider, in RF: .250/.331/.445, 22 HR.
7. Randy Ruiz: .245/.308/.413, 15 HR.
8. John Buck: .227/.311/.398, 13 HR.
9. Alex Gonzalez: .235/.296/.362, 8 HR.
Jose Bautista: .249/.347/.415, 11 HR
John McDonald: .244/.283/.316, 1 HR.
Raul Chavez: .241/.284/.328, 2 HR.
Joey Gathright: .277/.345/.338, 0 HR.
Brett Wallace: .265/.339/.436, 9 HR.
They even figure 100 PA for Travis D'arnaud, and figure him to hit better than either of the other 2 catchers.
I think (maybe hope) they are a little pessimistic about our team, what do you think?