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Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projections.

Baseball Prospectus has their PECOTA ratings out and their projected 2010 standings. By their numbers our Jays are going to come in last, in the AL East, with a 71/91 record. 773 runs scored, 878 runs allowed, .258 BA, 329 OBP and 427 SLG. We'll be 8 game behind the Orioles. The Rays will finish first, a game up on the Red Sox and 3 ahead of the Yankees.

So they figure us 4 games worse than last year. 25 less runs scored. 107 more runs allowed. An 8 point drop in BA, 4 point drop in OBP and 13 point drop in SLG. Where last year we score 27 more runs than we allowed, this year we'll be a big -105.

I don't know, yeah our pitching won't be as good without Doc, but the 107 run difference can't be explained just by losing him. Last year after Doc, 4 of the next 5 most used starting pitchers were rookies, the other being Brian Tallet. Wouldn't you expect a slight improve by those 4.

They figure our starting pitching to be:

Ricky Romero 28 starts, 5.45, 6-11. 156 innings.

Shaun Marcum: 15 starts, 4.29, 4-5, 77 innings.

Brandon Morrow: 24 starts, 4.39, 7-7, 123 innings.

Marc Rzepczynski: 23 starts, 4.93, 6-8, 123 innings.

Brett Cecil: 23 starts, 4.57, 6-7, 118 innings.

Scott Richmond: 21 starts, 4.93, 6-8, 4.93, 126 innings.

David Purcey: 16 starts, 4.86, 4-6, 99 innings.

Dustin McGowan: 12 starts, 4.36, 4-5, 74 innings.

In the pen, Jason Frasor gets 25 saves with a 4.02 ERA, Scott Downs gets 9 saves with a 3.92 ERA. The rest of the pen has ERAs in the 4's except Dirk Hayhurst 5.46 and Zechry Zinicola at 5.53.

Hitters? The batting order:

1. Vernon Wells improves little: 264/.326/.440 with 20 homers.

2. Lyle Overbay has a poor year: .258/.347/.415, 14 homers.

3. Aaron Hill: .281/.342/.480, 25 HR

4. Adam Lind, in LF: .276/.338/.481, 25 HR.

5. Edwin Encarnacion: .263/.347/.481, 25 HR.

6. Travis Snider, in RF: .250/.331/.445, 22 HR.

7. Randy Ruiz: .245/.308/.413, 15 HR.

8. John Buck: .227/.311/.398, 13 HR.

9. Alex Gonzalez: .235/.296/.362, 8 HR.

Bench guys:

Jose Bautista: .249/.347/.415, 11 HR

John McDonald: .244/.283/.316, 1 HR.

Raul Chavez: .241/.284/.328, 2 HR.

Joey Gathright: .277/.345/.338, 0 HR.

Brett Wallace: .265/.339/.436, 9 HR.

They even figure 100 PA for Travis D'arnaud, and figure him to hit better than either of the other 2 catchers.

I think (maybe hope) they are a little pessimistic about our team, what do you think?