I'm sure before the end of the winter we'll have heard that the Jays were interested in every free agent at one point or another. But lets look at this one for a moment.
At first glance Guerrier looks pretty decent, he's pitched between 70-80 games each of the last 4 years and has had ERAs of 2.35, 5.19, 2.36 and 3.17. So he looks like someone that would be pretty good.
The trouble is that he doesn't strike many guys out. 5.5 and 5.3 per 9 innings the last two seasons. The odds against being successful in the long run, striking that few out, is pretty long. But then in the last two seasons he has had BABIPs of .222 and .236 even though he has been giving up more than his share of line drives, 17.9% and 15.3%.
Matt has been getting very lucky and added to the luck is he is pitching in the AL Central. Put him into the AL East and have his luck run out, he'd likely have an ERA the 6's. Please don't Alex.