You know the line 'if you don't have anything nice to say...you are probably a bogger'. Unfortunately there is very little nice to say about Adam Lind's season. It was terrible in so many ways. Someone, on our last podcast, said that 'his defense was good'. Which, to me, is likely the ultimate insult for a first baseman. If you are noticing that a first baseman's defense is good, he probably isn't having a good season. He was Jay player of the month in June and for a bit there we all thought we had the real Adam Lind back. Now we are wondering if this is the real Adam Lind
Adam had a terrible 2010 season but most of us were pretty optimistic that this year would be better. Me? I should just ignore my guess but here it is:
My guess: 525 at bats. .285/.360/.525 line. 27 homers and 85 RBI.
He actually hit:
|2011 - Adam Lind||125||499||56||125||16||0||26||87||32||107||1||1||.251||.295||.439|
Do I get points for being only 1 off on homers and 2 off on RBI? No? I hate that OBP, first baseman have to get on base more than 30% of the time, a .295 OBP isn't going to cut it.
Fangraphs has him at a 0.5 WAR, givign him a value of $2.2 million to the Jays. We have him signed for 2 more seasons at $5 million a year, with 3 club options after that.
Comparing to last year Lind walked a little less (5.9% from 6.2%) but that was a lot worse than his 8.9% back in 2009. He struck out less than last year (19.7% from 23.5%) but again that is worse than his 16.8% in 2009. He hit more line drives than ever before in his career, 21.8% up from 18.7% last year. Same number of ground balls, 40.0% from 40.9%. About the same number of fly balls, 38.3 from 40.4%. He popped out a lot more than he has in the past (10.5% from 4.6% last year).
His BABIP was .265, before his career mark of .295, so maybe he was having a little bit of bad luck, considering he was hitting a good number of line drives, but he was popping up a bunch too. I'd guess that, next year, he'll be up a bit from that.
Adam didn't hit lefties at all, .243/.275/.364, and was all that great against RHP, .253/.303/.468.
He hit the same at home, .251/.295/.453 as on the road, .250/.295/.426.
With RISP he hit .257/.314/.500, not too bad really.
By month Adam hit:
If it was a marathon, you'd say he hit the wall July 1st. He was injured for most of May, he played just 6 games. I wonder if his back was bothering him in the second half of the season. If it was he should have gone on the DL. A guy hitting under .200 for half a season really shouldn't be playing first. Or batting cleanup for that matter. On the 'fun fact' ledger, Adam hit cleanup in 119 games, and hit 3rd and 5th in 3 games each.
Longest hitting streak: 11 games. Longest on base streak: 11 games. Longest stretch without a homer: 20 games. He had 2 grand slams. Longest hitless streak was 5 games.
On defense, he looked pretty good to me. He made 4 errors for a .996 FA. Fangraphs gives him a -3.3 UZR/150. How much value to put into UZR for first basemen, I'm not sure but I'd say he was about average or a little better than average in the field.
It was a bad year. We have him signed for 2 more seasons, and I don't really see the team eating his contract. I have a hard time seeing that he has much for trade value either. I think he has to be platooned at first base, let him and Edwin share the position and move EE to DH against RHP. Or something, but to continue to run Adam out there against lefties would be a bad thing. I'd like to think the team is too smart for that, but I need some proof. He has to walk more, he has to be more selective at the plate. He has to be better or someone else has to be tried at first.
Could he have a year like 2009 again? Sure. He had a pretty good first half to this season. Maybe he could hit like that all season. Maybe something physical happened at mid-season. But I don't think I'd bet on him having a good year.