2011 was a long season for Brett Cecil. Right from the start of spring training, things weren't going well. Brett talked about a drop in velocity right from the word go. I still think that he let himself get too worried about it at the cost of focusing on what was really important. Bruce Walton made the point that the drop in velocity wasn't the main problem, the main problem, in his mind, was that there wasn't much difference in the speed of his fastball and his changeup.
We took a close look at his 2011 season back here. Here is a quick look at his numbers as a Jay:
| Year | Age | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 22 | 7 | 4 | .636 | 5.30 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 93.1 | 116 | 59 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 69 | 1.650 | 11.2 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 1.82 |
| 2010 | 23 | 15 | 7 | .682 | 4.22 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 172.2 | 175 | 87 | 81 | 18 | 54 | 117 | 1.326 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 2.17 |
| 2011 | 24 | 4 | 11 | .267 | 4.73 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 123.2 | 122 | 68 | 65 | 22 | 42 | 87 | 1.326 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 2.07 |
| 3 Seasons | 26 | 22 | .542 | 4.64 | 66 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 389.2 | 413 | 214 | 201 | 57 | 134 | 273 | 1.404 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 2.04 | |
As you can see most of his rate stats were pretty similar, comparing last year to 2010. The biggest problem was the jump in the number of home runs.
Bill James figures him to go 9-12, with a 4.19 ERA, with 61 walks and 146 strikeouts in 191 innings over 30 starts.
We've been told that he is working out hard this off-season. We'll be seeing all the stories about him coming into spring training in his best shape ever. I'll guess he'll be in the 4.30 range, 11-10, 28 starts, 177 innings, 60 walks, 130 strikeouts.