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I think it is safe to say that Brett didn't have the season that we were expecting from him, after 150 terrific at bats in 2011. We were expecting a bit much from a 22 year old, but then he came up short too. FanGraphs had him at a 2.9 WAR, which really isn't bad.
Brett has some maturing to do (don't we all), and he runs the bases like he doesn't understand that the other team can tag him out. Maybe John Gibbons will be a good influence. Maybe Chad Mottola will be good for him. Maybe he'll improve as he moves towards his prime years, like most young players do. Hopefully all of those and he'll be great.
I have little doubt that Brett will grow into a star, but I'm not expecting it to all happen this year. His number's till now:
| Year | Age | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21 | 43 | 150 | 26 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 31 | .293 | .373 | .580 | .953 |
| 2012 | 22 | 125 | 494 | 73 | 135 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 13 | 8 | 33 | 86 | .273 | .324 | .405 | .729 |
| 2 Yrs | 168 | 644 | 99 | 179 | 34 | 7 | 20 | 73 | 20 | 9 | 49 | 117 | .278 | .336 | .446 | .781 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 621 | 95 | 173 | 33 | 7 | 19 | 70 | 19 | 9 | 47 | 113 | .278 | .336 | .446 | .781 | |
Bill James has him playing 155 games, hitting .289/.342/.465 with 18 home runs, 71 RBI and 21 stolen bases. His Zip projections aren't all that much different .275/.332/.461 with 19 home runs, 66 RBI and 15 stolen bases.
I'm thinking Bill's a little optimistic on game played, the way he plays I'd think he'd miss more than 7 games. Let's say 145 games, .280/.340/.450, 16 home runs, 70 RBI, 20 stolen bases. I'd be really happy with that and his defense at 3rd.
Give us your guess.