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Brett Lawrie hasn't quite had the season we've been expecting and yet, if you look at the 10 players on the 'Similar Batters through 23' list on his Baseball Prospectus page, you have a pretty good group:
1. Andy Carey
2. Fernando Tatis
3. Aramis Ramirez
4. Dale Murphy
5. Adam Jones
6. Jim Presley
7. Bill Melton
8. Roy Howell
9. Corey Patterson
10. Robin Ventura
Corey Patterson's name on the list worries me, but there are a number of good players on the list.
Brett does have to give us a season that gets us to stop talking about his potential. As fun as it is to watch him play defense, it would be nice if his bat could equal his glove. Maybe Kevin Seiter will find the answer.
For a lot of reasons, he's one of my favorite players to watch. The glove. How he goes hard down the line to first base on all ground balls. Going first to third. It would be nice if he would pick his moments, but he is an exciting player to watch.
| Year | Age | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21 | 43 | 150 | 26 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 31 | .293 | .373 | .580 | .953 | 153 |
| 2012 | 22 | 125 | 494 | 73 | 135 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 13 | 8 | 33 | 86 | .273 | .324 | .405 | .729 | 98 |
| 2013 | 23 | 107 | 401 | 41 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 68 | .254 | .315 | .397 | .712 | 94 |
| 3 Yrs | 275 | 1045 | 140 | 281 | 52 | 10 | 31 | 119 | 29 | 14 | 79 | 185 | .269 | .328 | .427 | .755 | 104 | |
Lawrie had a great August, hitting .346/.397/.495 and we hoped he had figured it out, but then September wasn't great. He does have a hard time getting his timing down, and last year, with the injury during spring training and then wrecking his ankle on that awkward slide, most of his season seemed to be spent searching for the timing.
Bill James figures Brett to play 147 games, hit 16 home runs, with a .279/.338/.451 slash line.
Zips doesn't guess games, but figures 542 PA, 16 home runs, .266/.326/.436 with 3.3 WAR.
The poor guy seems to find injuries, so I'll guess 135 games, something like .280/.330/450 and 18 home runs, but I'll hold out hope that he has that breakout season.