Baseball Prospectus has their PECOTA projections out. For all you fans of the middle road, Jays are right there. PECOTA has us finishing 3rd in the division, with 83 wins, trailing the Red Sox and Rays, each with 86 wins. Yankees are projected to win 80 and the Orioles 78. Almost the exact flip of last year's final standings.
Looking at the individual players is more fun:
Russell Martin: Projected to a 2.7 WAR, hitting .237/.335/.388 with 17 home runs in 595 plate appearances. A bit of a drop from his .290/.402/.430 line from last year. I'd put money down on Martin having a slugging average over .400. Thole only gets 32 PA.
Justin Smoak: Projected to a 0 WAR, hitting .236/.328/.401 with 16 home runs in 484 PA. I'd like to think that if he hits that badly it won't get 484 PA.
Ryan Goins: Projected to a 0.2 WAR, hitting .243/.277/.342 with 5 home runs in 452 PA, getting the lion's share of the time at second base. I don't see that happening either. Is it wrong that I look at the .243 BA and think, I'd be very happy with that. Of course, I'd be happier if he would get on base more, unfortunately, I don't expect him to. Devon Travis gets 60 PA and a .261/.314/.405 line.
Josh Donaldson: Projected to a 4.2 WAR, hitting .263/.342/.465 with 25 home runs in 604 PA. That's quite a drop from his 6.7 WAR of last year. It's worth noting that PECOTA also gives Brett Lawrie a 4.2 WAR. I'd bet that Donaldson finishes with a better WAR than Brett.
Jose Reyes: Projected to a 2.9 WAR, hitting .286/.333/.422, with 29 stolen bases, in 651 PA. Nice that they figure a pretty much injury free season.
Michael Saunders: Projected to a 2.0 WAR, hitting .236/.318/.396 with 15 home runs in 364 PA.
Dalton Pompey: Projected to a 0.4 WAR, hitting .234/.301/.349 with 8 home runs, in 515 PA.
Jose Bautista: Projected to a 5.0 WAR, hitting .263/.381/.522 with 37 home runs in 647 PA. A very nice season, I'll take that.
Edwin Encarnacion: Projected to a 3.0 WAR, hitting .263/.347/.492 with 31 home runs in 620 PA. They have him playing 65% of the time at DH and 20% at first base. I don't know where the other 15% will come from.
Dioner Navarro: Projected to a 0.3 WAR, hitting .258/.318/.393 in 138 PA. I'd have to think he'll get to bat more if he is on the team.
Kevin Pillar: Projected to a 0.9 WAR, hitting .268/.302/.405 in 329 PA.
R.A. Dickey: 1.4 WAR, 15-12, 3.99 ERA.
Mark Buehrle: 0.2 WAR, 12-13, 4.50 ERA. and he pitches 229 innings.
Drew Hutchison: 1.2 WAR, 10-9, 4.03. I'm taking the over on the WAR.
Marco Estrada: 0.9 WAR, 11-10, 4.19. PECOTA has him making 28 starts....I'll take the under, I very much doubt he gets 28 starts. .
Marcus Stroman: 2.1 WAR, 9-7. 3.48 in 24 starts, 137 innings.
Brett Cecil: 3.51 ERA in 55 games, 25 saves.
Steve Delabar: 3.97 ERA in 50 games.
Aaron Loup: 4.20 ERA in 55 games.
It also has Liam Hendriks and Aaron Sanchez making 8 starts each. Sanchez doesn't get much love, 5.18 ERA in 69 innings.