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Blue Jays ZiPS Projections

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Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs has put up it's 2016 ZiPS projections for the Blue Jays.

Of course, they figure our batters to be great again, pitching, on the other hand, doesn't look so good.

A few of the interesting projections:

  • Josh Donaldson: .277/.353/.517 line with 32 home runs and a WAR of 6.6.
  • Jose Bautista: .262/.379/.522 with 30 home runs and a WAR of 4.1.
  • Russell Martin: .236/.336/.415 with 16 home runs and a 3.5 WAR.
  • Troy Tulowitzki: .261/.335/.442 with 17 home runs and a 3.5 WAR, in 466 PA.
  • Kevin Pillar: .271/.306/.406 with 12 home runs, 22 steals and a 3.2 WAR.
  • Devon Travis: .267/.325/.441 with 13 home runs and a 2.5 WAR in 430 PA. I'm hoping he gets a few more at bats than that.
  • Chris Colabello: .254/.308/.440 with 19 home runs and a 0.4 WAR. 28.1% strikeout rate.
  • Justin Smoak: .236/.313/.426 with 17 home runs and a 0.7 WAR. 23.1% strikeout rate.
Some pitchers:
  • Marco Estrada: 4.06 ERA in 157 innings, 2.0 WAR.
  • Marcus Stroman: 3.80 ERA  in 104 innings, 1.8 WAR. The program figures a pitcher that threw 27 inning last year, won't likely get in a full year this year. I'd disagree, in this case, but overall, it is a good assumption.
  • R.A. Dickey: 4.41 ERA, in 175 innings, 1.6 WAR. I'm surprised the program thinks a 41 year old would do that well. Normally, projections figure that players will fall off by that age.
  • J.A. Happ: 4.38 ERA in 135 innings, 1.3 WAR.
  • Jessie Chavez: 4.33 ERA in 137 innings, 1.4 WAR. Chavez to do better than Happ (just slightly) surprises me some. ZiPS clearly doesn't see Happ's finish to the 2015 season to be sustainable.
  • Aaron Sanchez: 3.92 ERA  in 108 innings, 1.2 WAR. ZiPS has him making 14 starts. They figure the Jays still can't decide if he is a starter or reliever.
  • Roberto Osuna: 3.13 ERA in 63 innings, 0.9 WAR.
  • Brett Cecil: 2.96 ERA in 54 innings, 0.9 WAR.
  • Aaron Loup: 3.74 ERA in 60 innings, 0.4 WAR
Take a little at the FanGraphs post and tell us what stands out to you.