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PECOTA projects Blue Jays to win 82 games

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Jays would finish 3rd in the AL East and miss playoffs

Baseball Prospectus has released it’s PECOTA projections for this year. They figure the Jays to finish 82-80, good for third in the AL East, 8 games back of the Red Sox and 2 back of the Rays. The Yankees project to be 1 game back of the Jays and the Orioles 10 games back, at 72-90.

I like USA Today’s Projections better, in them we finish 2nd in the AL East at 87-75, 7 games back of the Red Sox, but still getting the second Wild Card spot.

Anyway, PECOTA projects each player’s stats for the season. Some of interest:

  • Jose Bautista: .297/.370/.488 with 31 home runs, 3.1 WAR, playing 70% of the games in RF, 15% at DH. A very nice bounce back season. I’d take it.
  • Kendrys Morales: .269/.329/.446, with 22 home runs, 1.4 WAR, playing 80%. I’m hoping for more home runs, but the line looks pretty close.
  • Melvin Upton: .235/.292/.381, 11 home runs, 0.1 WAR, playing 60% of the Jays games in LF. I’d like to think that, if he hits that poorly, he won’t play that much.
  • Josh Donaldson: .299/.367/.506, 31 home runs, 5.0 WAR, playing 85% of the games at third and 5% at DH.
  • Russell Martin: .264/.337/.407, 19 home runs, 3.8 WAR, playing 80% of our games. Pretty nice.
  • Devon Travis: .264/.327/.434, 16 home runs, 2.4 WAR, playing 80% of our games at 2B.
  • Troy Tulowitzki: .277/.346/.463, 22 home runs, 3.2 WAR, playing 80% of our games at short.
  • Steve Pearce: .281/.347/.463, 14 home runs, 2.0 WAR, playing 40% of games at first, 10% in left.
  • Marcus Stroman: 12-9, 4.09 ERA in 31 starts. 2.0 WAR. I’m hoping for better.
  • Aaron Sanchez: 11-9, 4.38 ERA, in 29 starts, 1.1 WAR. I’m hoping for better.
  • Marco Estrada: 10-10, 4.82 ERA, in 29 starts, 0.2 WAR.
  • J.A. Happ: 10-10, 4.49, in 29 starts, 0.9 WAR.
  • Francisco Liriano: 11-8, in 28 starts, 1.4 WAR. I hope our rotation is as healthy as PECOTA projects.
  • Roberto Osuna: 3.51 ERA and 35 saves. 0.9 WAR.

Random stuff:

  • It has A.J. Jimenez as our backup catcher, playing 15% of the games. That likely won’t happen.
  • Rowdy Tellez gets in 8 games.
  • Ryan Goins (playing 35% of our games) gets most playing time than Darwin Barney (playing 20% of our games. I’d bet against that.
  • The bullpen, beyond Osuna, doesn’t project to be very good. Osuna is the only member with an ERA better than 3.95.

Non-Blue Jays projections:

  • It picks the Astros to be the best team in the AL, finishing 93-69. Astros, Red Sox and Indians would be division winners, Mariners and Rangers would take the Wild Card spots.
  • Royals would be the worst team in the AL, at 71-91, one game worse than the Orioles.
  • Mets, Cubs and Dodgers win the NL divisions. Nationals and Giants get the Wild Card spots.

Go take a look at the projections and let us know what you think.