Hello and welcome to the first of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible. Inspired by the 1-9 post earlier this week, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from 1995 to 2016 and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you! Onward!
The Blue Jays are 2-10
Ugh. Could you communicate that in gif form instead?
Number of teams with the same record since 1995
Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 13 teams (2%) have started a season 2-10. The most recent teams to do so were the 2013 Padres and Marlins, who finished 76-86 and 62-100 respectively.
How many of those teams made the playoffs?
1, or 8%. The 2001 Oakland Athletics started 2-10 but ended the season a remarkable 102-60.
Give me an end of season record distribution
99th percentile: .630 (102-60 OAK 2001)
90th percentile: .549
75th percentile: .469
50th percentile: .420 (68-94 MIL 2015)
25th percentile: .401
10th percentile .383
1st percentile: .364 (59-103 WAS 2009)
Given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs
Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games
Summarize the above in one word