Hello and welcome to the 3rd of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible. Inspired by the 1-9 post last week, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from 1995 to 2016 and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you! Onward!
Important programming note: If you somehow interpret this as 1) analysis, which 2) is drawing a conclusion about the Jays' expected rest of season performance based on how teams that started similarly performed, and 3) are outraged by your inference, please see this very important link.
The Blue Jays are 3-12
That somehow feels better than 2-11. Gif me?
Number of teams with the same record since 1995
Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 10 teams (1.5%) have started a season 3-12. The most recent team to do so was the 2013 Florami Marlins, who finished the season 62-100.
How many of those teams made the playoffs?
0, or 0%. 4 of the 10 teams lost 100 or more games; the aforementioned 2013 Florami Marlins are one of 'em. That Marlins team featured former Blue Jay Henderson Alvarez and future baby Sam Dyson. They also had something called a Duane Below. Here's to one more 100-loss season for each dollar Jeff Loria bilked the Miami taxpayers out of.
Give me an end of season record distribution
99th percentile: .525 (85-77 BOS 1996)
90th percentile: .486
75th percentile: .469
50th percentile: .423 (68.5-93.5)
25th percentile: .369
10th percentile .345
1st percentile: .342 (55-106 DET 2002)
Given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays' true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs
Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games
Summarize the above in one word