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Slightly More Fun(?) With Numbers

Describe the below in one word: #content

Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Hello and welcome to the 4th of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible.  Inspired by the 1-9 post, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from the Wild Card era (1995-2016) and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you!  Onward!

Important programming note: If you somehow interpret this as 1) analysis, which 2) is drawing a conclusion about the Jays' expected rest of season performance based on how teams that started similarly performed, and 3) are outraged by your inference, please see this very important link.


The Blue Jays are 5-13

Progress! Gif please?

Number of teams with the same record since 1995

Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 23 teams (3.5%) have started a season 5-13.  The most recent team to do so was the 2016 Minnesota Twins, who finished the season 59-103.

How many of those teams made the playoffs?

0, or 0%.  6 of the 23 teams lost 100 or more games; the 2013 Houston Sam Hinkies are one of 'em.  The 51-111 Hinkies featured two guys whose player pictures on Baseball Reference are of them in Blue Jays hats: Matt Dominguez and Brett Oberholtzer.  A young-ish and not good Dallas Keuchel went 6-10 with a 5.15 ERA.  The Astros have not slighted the Blue Jays, their fans, or the world in any notable way, so they avoid my additional 100-loss season wishes.

Give me an end of season record distribution

99th percentile: .497 (80-81 CHW 1997)
90th percentile: .474
75th percentile: .455
50th percentile: .407 (66-96 CHC 2013)
25th percentile: .389
10th percentile .349
1st percentile: .315 (51-111 HOU 2013)

Given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays' true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs

Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games

Summarize the above in one word