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Fun(?) With Numbers: Glimmer Of Playoff Hope Edition

I said a hip, hop, the hippie, the hippie, to the hip hip hop and you don't stop the #content

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Hello and welcome to the 5th of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible.  Inspired by the 1-9 post, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from the Wild Card era (1995-2016) and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you!  Onward!

Important programming note: If you somehow interpret this as 1) analysis, which 2) is drawing a conclusion about the Jays' expected rest of season performance based on how teams that started similarly performed, and 3) are outraged by your inference, please see this very important link.


The Blue Jays are 6-14

Here's a video passing for a gif


Number of teams with the same record since 1995

Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 27 teams (4.1%) have started a season 6-14.  The most recent teams to do so were the 2016 Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros, who finished their seasons 59-103 and 84-78 respectively.

How many of those teams made the playoffs?

1, or 4%.  4 of the 27 teams lost 100 or more games; the 2002 Calanafornheim Angels of Los Angeles aren't one of 'em, because they pulled off a .654 winning percentage over their remaining 142 games, finishing the season 99-63 and taking the Wild Card.  The Angels went on to win the World Series on the back of this somewhat creepy looking fellow, becoming the second Wild Card team ever to take the title.  Gritmaster David Eckstein hit the cages early and stayed late and efforted and baseball IQ'd and gritted his was to a 5.2 bWAR season, the best of his career.

Give me an end of season record distribution

99th percentile: .611 (99-63 ANA 2002)
90th percentile: .506
75th percentile: .467
50th percentile: .426 (69-93 KC 2007)
25th percentile: .401
10th percentile .375
1st percentile: .315 (51-111 HOU 2013)

Given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays' true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs

Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games

Summarize the above in one word

(╯°□°)╯︵(\ .o.)\ ︵ ( °o°/)