Hello and welcome to the 6th of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible. Inspired by the 1-9 post, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from the Wild Card era (1995-2016) and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you! Onward!
Important programming note: If you somehow interpret this as 1) analysis, which 2) is drawing a conclusion about the Jays' expected rest of season performance based on how teams that started similarly performed, and 3) are outraged by your inference, please see this very important link.
The Blue Jays are 6-16
Jose Bautista played 3rd base last night.
Number of teams with the same record since 1995
Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 12 teams (1.8%) have started a season 6-16. The most recent teams to do so were the 2012 Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins, who finished their seasons 72-90 and 66-96 respectively.
How many of those teams made the playoffs?
0, or 0%. 2 of the 12 teams lost 100 or more games; the 2008 Washington Nationals (59-102) are one of 'em. The '08 Nats featured future former Blue Jays Jon Rauch, Emilio Bonfiasco, Shawn Hill, and current and future former Blue Jay and Marco Estrada, who pitched to a 7.82 ERA in 12.666666666[...] innings. The Nationals turned their dismal season into then-wunderkind-but-now-perfectly-fine-but-disappointing-in-hindsight Stephen Strasburg, which is a pretty okay trade. I have no particular affinity for the Expos, but I do intensely dislike Jeffrey Loria, so let's wish the Nats an extra 100-loss season for each dollar that slimeball pocketed from uprooting the team.
Give me an end of season record distribution
99th percentile: .525 (85-77 BOS 1996)
90th percentile: .481
75th percentile: .470
50th percentile: .429 (69.5-92.5)
25th percentile: .400
10th percentile .369
1st percentile: .342 (55-106 DET 2002)
Given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays' true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs
Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games
Summarize the above in one word
Worse than RHPS