Hello and welcome to the 7th of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible. Inspired by the 1-9 post, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from the Wild Card era (1995-2016) and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you! Onward!
Important programming note: If you somehow interpret this as 1) analysis, which 2) is drawing a conclusion about the Jays' expected rest of season performance based on how teams that started similarly performed, and 3) are outraged by your inference, please see this very important link.
The Blue Jays are 8-17
Could you express that in Kif form?
Number of teams with the same record since 1995
Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 29 teams (4.4%) have started a season 8-17. The most recent team to do so was the 2016 Houston Astros, who finished their season an impressive-given-the-start 84-78 (.519).
How many of those teams made the playoffs?
1, or 3%. That team is once again the 2001 Oakland Athletics, who played the remainder of the season at a ridiculous .686 pace (111-51 full season). The team featured submariner Brad Chadford, the three-headed monster of Barry Zito, Mark Mulder,and Tim Hudson, and future-former Jays Frank Menechino, Cory Lidle, and moustache-haver Sal Fasano. Also, Miguel Tejada was really good at baseball and totally overshadowed by Derek Jeter and A-Rod.
Give me an end of season record distribution
99th percentile: .630 (102-60 OAK 2001)
90th percentile: .500
75th percentile: .481 (78-84 TOR 2002)
50th percentile: .432 (70-92 HOU 2014)
25th percentile: .389 (63-99 PHI 2015)
10th percentile .366
1st percentile: .342 (55-106 DET 2002)
Given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays' true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs
Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games
Summarize the above in one word