Hello and welcome to the 9th of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible. Inspired by the 1-9 post, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from the Wild Card era (1995-2016) and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you! Onward!
Important programming note: If you somehow interpret this as 1) analysis, which 2) is drawing a conclusion about the Jays' expected rest of season performance based on how teams that started similarly performed, and 3) are outraged by your inference, please see this very important link.
The Blue Jays are 17-21
Could you express that in gif form?
Number of teams with the same record since 1995
Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 53 teams (8.1%) have started a season 17-21. 53 nearly doubles the previous highest number of teams and holy moles we're nominally back in the hunt. The most recent teams to start the season 17-21 are the 2016 editions of the Detroit Tigers (86-75), Los Californheim Angels of America (74-88), Arizona Diamondbacks (69-93), and San Diego Padres (68-94).
How many of those teams made the playoffs?
5 teams, or 9%.
The most recent team to do so was your 2015 Toronto Blue Jays! The Jays began the season a mediocre 50-50 and then played to a .700 record in their final 62 games, which I hear is pretty good. I still absolutely hate the David Price trade, but whatever, it was fun.
Give me an end of season record distribution
99th percentile: .593 (96-66 MIL 2011)
90th percentile: .548
75th percentile: .512
50th percentile: .469 (76-86 SEA 2015)
25th percentile: .444
10th percentile .415
1st percentile: .340 (55-107 HOU 2012)
Given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays' true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs
Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games
Summarize the above in one word