Next up is reviewing the recent draft history of the Blue Jays. For each draft year, I'll list the total spending, as well as information and notes on three groups: signed draftees picked in the top 100; draftees who received signing bonuses over $250,000; and other notables (players still in the organization who are interesting)
Total spend: approximately $10.2-million (plus ~300,000 in pool overage penalties)
In 2012, the Blue Jays had a number of extra high picks, and additionally elected to punt rounds 4-10 in order to use the savings to sign higher ceiling players. Their top pick is a bust, even more painful considering the players chosen immediately after (Corey Seager, Michael Wacha), but more than offset by getting Marcus Stroman with their other pick. Unfortunately, they largely whiffed on their other extra picks, which is a stain especially concsidering the extra money invested in Smoral. On the plus side, going overslot for Anthony Alford and Ryan Borucki at this point apears to have have been a great strategy.
Bottom line: even with all the picks, if you get a front line starter and an average or better regular, this is a decent draft. If Borucki works out, it would be a good draft.
Total spend: approximately $3.5-million
In many ways, 2013 was the opposite of 2012. The Jays didn't have extra picks, and didn't sign 11th overall pick Phil Bickford which reduces the expectation of the talent ultimately to come out. The Jays took a lot of risk at the top of this draft, particularly with injuries, that largely didn't pay off but the draft has been salvaged by some really impressive diamonds in the rough later down, particularly with inexpensive college seniors. Strategically, it was a 180 degree pivot from 2012 as they didn't punt the day 2 picks (rounds 3-10).
A note on Patrick Murphy. He missed most of his senior year at baseball powerhouse Chandler HS in Phoenix, Arizona but the Jays had seen enough to pick him anyway. Unfortunately, they missed his teammate Cody Bellinger, who was picked one round later by the Dodgers and is now a top prospect.
Bottom line: even not accounting for no first rounder, this is already a reasonably success draft. If players like Murphy, Jansen, Greene and Tellez provide some value, it will be a very good draft. If at least one becomes an average or better regular, it's a smashing success.