Hello and welcome to the 8th of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible. Inspired by the 1-9 post, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from the Wild Card era (1995-2016) and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you! Onward!
Important programming note: If you somehow interpret this as 1) analysis, which 2) is drawing a conclusion about the Jays' expected rest of season performance based on how teams that started similarly performed, and 3) are outraged by your inference, please see this very important link.
The Blue Jays are 11-20
Could you express that in Jif form?
Number of teams with the same record since 1995
Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 29 teams (4.4%) have started a season 11-20. The numbers 14 and 29 have appeared remarkably consistently in this section. Weird. The most recent team to do so was the 2016 Houston Astros, who finished their season an impressive-given-the-start 84-78 (.519).
I bet the 2001 Oakland A's made the playoffs from this starting record
1 team, or 3%, has made the playoffs after starting 11-20. That team is once again the 2001 Oakland Athletics, who played the remainder of the season at a ridiculous .686 pace (111-51 full season). The Giambis were on this team. They were really good. Well, one of them was.
Give me an end of season record distribution
99th percentile: .630 (102-60 OAK 2001)
90th percentile: .506
75th percentile: .479
50th percentile: .444 (72-90 KC 2012)
25th percentile: .401
10th percentile .384
1st percentile: .333 (54-108 FLA 1998)
Given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays' true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs
Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games
Summarize the above in one word