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Fun(?) With Numbers: Little Engine That Could Edition

I had this dream where I relished the fray, and the #content filled my head all day

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Hello and welcome to the 11th of somewhere between several and many looks at the historical and statistical tidbits that arise from having a W-L record somewhere near the tail end of possible.  Inspired by the 1-9 post, I've painstakingly collected the data from the Baseball-Reference season logs for each team-season from the Wild Card era (1995-2016) and, through ExcelMagic TM, am now passing the savings along to you!  Onward!

Important programming note: If you somehow interpret this as 1) analysis, which 2) is drawing a conclusion about the Jays' expected rest of season performance based on how teams that started similarly performed, and 3) are outraged by your inference, please see this very important link.


The Blue Jays are 26-27

Could you express that in gif form?

Nope, 'cause I'm at work.

Number of teams with the same record since 1995

Of the 654 team seasons from 1995 to 2016, 48 teams (7.3%) have started a season 26-27.  The 2016 Philadelphia Phillies were the most recent team to have done so, finishing the season with a record of 71-91.

How many of those teams made the playoffs?

8 teams, or 17%.

The team with the worst record to do so was the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers Of Los Angeles Proper, who won their division with a 84-78 record.  The AL East laughs at such nonsense.  Or cries.

Mostly cries.

Utility infielder Russell Martin and DH Matt Kemp tied to lead the hitterfolk with 3.9 bWAR each.  The team also featured one of the last editions of Manny Being Good At Baseball.  Derek Lowe (4.4 bWAR) and Ramon Garciaparra (0.8) joined him for a 2004 Red Sox reunion tour.  20 year old rookie and not yet Destroyer of Worlds Clayton Kershaw (1.4) was there too.

Stupid AL East.

Hello Oakland my old friend

99th percentile: .630 (102-60 OAK 2001)
90th percentile: .557
75th percentile: .532
50th percentile: .488 (79-83 TEX 2008)
25th percentile: .449
10th percentile .430
1st percentile: .414 (67-95 ATL 2015)

According to this new and improved table, given your chosen projected estimates of the Blue Jays' true talent going forward and the number of wins required to make the playoffs, the Jays have a ___% chance of making the playoffs

Over their remaining games, the Blue Jays would have to play like a ___ team to win ___ games

Summarize the above in one word

It doesn't make much sense for the Reds to wear a non-red colour, the MLB exploiting veterans and Memorial Day to make a couple extra bucks or not.