Marco Estrada has had 3 seasons with the Blue Jays.
In the first two, he was very consistent, giving us a good start almost every time out. He gave us some great moments, came close to no-hitters on a couple of occasions and made some incredible starts in the playoffs, when we really needed them.
Last year he wasn’t so consistent. He was very good in April and May then the wheels came off in June. He was 0-4, with a 9.11 ERA in 6 starts. July wasn’t much better, then he righted things in August and September.
I don’t know what was going on for that bad stretch. I see a note in a Arden Zwelling story:
Estrada was going through a personal issue that he feels directly led to his poor results over a 10-start stretch leading up to the trade deadline in which he posted an 8.87 ERA with 6.5 BB/9.
I don’t know what the personal issue was.
The Jays gave him a $13 million contract for 2018, so they are satisfied that Marco fixed whatever was wrong.
In 2017, Marco had rate stats that we much the same as 2016. His strikeout and walk rates were virtually the same. He gave up about the same number of line drives. His ‘hard contact’ rate actually went down.
ZiPS predicts a 5.09 ERA for Marco. I’d take the
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Will Estrada still be a Blue Jay at the end of the season?
It is a good question.
The Jays will have Tim Mayze, Thomas Pannone, Taylor Gurriel and Ryan Borucki in Buffalo. If they are out of the playoff race, Marco might be a good rental target for a team that is in the race. I thought the same last year, but the trade deadline came when Marco was terrible and no team would make an decent offer for him.
Marco will start moving up the franchise leader board with a good season:
- He is 22nd in bWAR for pitchers. A 4.3 season would get him into our top ten. A 2.3 would put him 11th.
- At 32 wins, he’s tied for 26th on our list. 10 wins could get him up to 16th. He needs 20 wins to get to the top 10.
- He’s 28th in innings pitched. 180 would get him two 21st.
- He’s 21st in starts at 90. 19 starts this year, would move him to 13th (he needs 38 to move pass Ricky Romero at 12th).