Tim Mayza is a 26-year-old left-handed pitcher, who moved up the Blue Jays system quickly over the past couple of years.
He’s been on the edge of our prospect list the last couple of years. In 2016 he was 33rd on our list. Last year he was on my ‘just missed out’ list. This year, he is on Matt’s over 25 list.
Mayza’s first couple of years in our system he was putting up ERAs in the high 6’s and worse. Then 2015, he turned it around. In 2015, he had a 3.07 ERA in Dunedin. In 2016, he had a 2.25 ERA splitting time between Dunedin and New Hampshire. Last year he had a 3.25 ERA, splitting time between New Hampshire and Buffalo.
And he came up to Toronto, in mid-August, and stayed the rest of the season.
He was hit pretty hard, putting up a 6.88 ERA in 17 innings. He gave up 24 hits, including 3 home runs, in 17 innings. That was the bad. The good? He had 27 strikeouts and just 4 walks. A 34.2% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate is terrific. His FIP was 2.98. So there is a question about whether he was very unlucky. It seems that, with every batter, he either got a strikeout, or was hit hard, and there wasn’t much in between.
Tim, at first glance, looks like the definition of a LOOGY. Lefties hit .239/.255/.348, while right-handers torched him at a .448/.500/.793 rate. Some of that is small sample size, he faced just 79 batters. I’m thinking it might take him some time to figure out how to get batters out in the majors. That’s the way it is with some lefties. But then, there is a question of whether the team will give him that time.
He throws hard, he averaged 94.2 MPH on his fastball. He throws just the fastball and a 86.5 MPH slider, which he considers his “out pitch”.
Tim is in a battle for the second lefty spot in out bullpen. The Jays also have Matt Dermody, Craig Breslow, Chad Girodo and Jose Fernandez. I think Mayza has a leg up on the others because he throws hard and management seems to like him. Who wouldn’t like a guy who strikes out 1 out of every 3 batters he faces?
On the other hand, PECOTA doesn’t seem to like him. They figure him for a 5.33 ERA in 29 innings.
If the over/under on Mayza’s innings pitched is 29, I’d take the
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