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Blue Jays Batters PECOTA Projections

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MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA numbers this morning. It is kind of interesting to look at. We’ll take a look at their numbers for a few Blue Jays batters.

Cavan Biggio:

595 PA. .246/.363/.457 with 25 home runs and 3.5 WARP.

PECOTA likes him a lot. It seems to like guys who will take walks. They don’t think he’ll be perfect stealing bases again, 10 steals, 4 times caught.

Reese McGuire:

385 PA. .243/.304/.401 with 12 home runs and a 2.2 WARP.

I’ll take that happily.

Danny Jansen:

280 PA. .234/.313/.419 with 11 home runs and a 1.5 WARP.

I’d like to hope for better. PECOTA has Reese getting more playing time.

Travis Shaw:

455 PA. .242/.337/.479 with 24 home runs and a 1.4 WARP.

I’d be very happy. I think the PA is likely a little high, but then, if he hits like that he’ll get the playing time.

Rowdy Tellez:

385 PA. .245/.314/.485 with 22 home runs and a 0.4 WARP.

I would be pretty happy with that one too.

Bo Bichette:

595 PA. .261/.314/.452 with 22 home runs and 2.0 WARP

I hope he does better.

Vladimir Guerrero:

630 PA. .274/.340/.470 with 25 home runs and a 2.1 WARP.

Again I’m hoping for better, but seems to go with his numbers from last year.

Randal Grichuk:

595 PA. .231/.282/.466 with 31 home runs and a 0.3 WARP

If his batting line is that poor, it is hard to imagine 600 PA but we are short on outfielders. Please do better Randal.

Lourdes Gurriel:

595 PA. .250/.292/.455 with 27 home runs and a -0.5 WARP

PECOTA doesn’t like guys who don’t take walks. I’m hoping he does better than this. I’m a bit surprised it doesn’t see him missing time with injury.

Teoscar Hernandez:

595 PA. .235/.302/.470 with 31 home runs and a 1.4 WARP

No surprise that the outfield doesn’t look good, though there are a few home runs out there. There is a question of whether he could hit better if he DHed. If letting him forget worrying about his glove.

Derek Fisher:

315 PA. .234/.337/.467 with 16 home runs and a 1.0 WARP

If he hits that well I’d be absolutely thrilled.

Brandon Drury:

280 PA. .237/.290/.408 with 9 home runs and a -0.4 WARP.

Pretty much in line with last year, slightly improved, but it would be hard to get much worse.


I’ll stop there, they have numbers for a lot of other hitters but these are the ones likely to play the most. We’ll look at some of the pitchers numbers later.

Any of the projections stand out to you?