Free Agent Poll: Kevin Gausman

Happy Thanksgiving to those of you on the other side of the border. I hope you have much to be thankful.

I’d be thankful for some news, but I don’t think I’m going to get any today or, for that matter, this weekend.

We used this idea last year. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.

Keith Law has Kevin Gausman 8th on his list. Ben Clemens has him further back at 14th.

Some donut tried to make some excitement by saying the Jays had signed Kevin, but when you see he has eight followers, you know, he’s not going to be breaking news like that. I don’t understand people doing things like that.

But many serious reports say that the Jays are one of 4 or 5 teams in on him.

Gausman had an excellent 2021 season, for the Giants, with a 3.09 ERA in 33 starts, 192.0 innings. Batters hit just .210/.264/.345, and he had a 5.2 bWAR.

He’s had a good, if not spectacular, career, but after a poor 2019, he’s been terrific the last couple of years.

Law says:

Gausman just needed to get away from Baltimore to unlock his potential as a starter. Buck Showalter and his Orioles staff kept trying to move Gausman to the extreme third-base end of the rubber to give him more deception against right-handed batters, since he has never had an average breaking ball, but it cost Gausman command, especially to his glove side. He was just generally ineffective as a result. Now he’s a fastball/splitter guy standing more toward the center of the rubber, able to work to both sides and get left- and right-handed hitters out even without that third pitch. His splitter was by far the most valuable splitter or changeup in baseball this year, according to FanGraphs.

Ben:

It’s fair to wonder how sustainable that is, but it worked quite well this year, and that’s two years in a row at this point. Teams may not get a guaranteed Cy Young contender, but they also won’t pay those marquee prices. Few pitchers are even capable of throwing 192 innings of 2.81 ERA excellence, so some team will absolutely give him a multi-year chance to continue his two-pitch experiment.

Ben figures him to get a 3-year, at $18 million a year, for $54 million. I’d guess he will get a bit more than that, but it is likely to close enough for rock and roll.

Kevin turns 31 in January.