We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Ben Clemens has Carlos Correa the number 3 free agent of this off-season, Keith Law has him in the top spot.
Correa is one of the very few players who gets to be a free agent two years in a row. Last year both Law and Clemens had him as their top free agent. And last year he signed a three-year contract with the Twins for $105.3 million, with an opt-out after the first season. He has chosen to opt-out (wouldn’t it be amazing to have a contract that will pay you $75 million over the next two years and you say, ‘Nah, I think I can do better’._
Carlos hit .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs in 136 games for the Twins this year. Good for a 5.4 bWAR (he has a 7.2 bWAR in 2021). But he wasn’t able to drag the Twins into the playoffs.
Correa returns to free agency after a successful year with the Twins where he played 136 games and was worth about 5 WAR, hitting better after a slow April while playing close to average defense at short. He represents – again – a rare chance to get a superstar who plays a skill position and is still in his peak years. He has excellent plate discipline and pitch recognition, hitting just about all pitch types, murdering fastballs, and making very hard contact. His batted-ball data for 2022 was better than his actual triple-slash line, which might indicate an uptick is coming in 2023, especially in the power department.
But he worries a bit about his injury history. And questions if he can continue to play short long term, given his size (listed at 6’4”, 220).
Last winter, Correa pulled off a major surprise when rather than holding out for the maximum-value, long-term pact you might expect for a player of his caliber, he signed a three-year, $105.3 million agreement with the Minnesota Twins that allows him to opt out this offseason. Unlike a lot of stars who sign deals like this, Correa wasn’t trying to prove himself after a lousy season. Instead, he was waiting for a more favorable environment to land an even bigger deal.
Correa turned 28 in September so he goes into free agency in his prime (again).
Defensively, he’s an average shortstop (which isn’t a knock) but he’ll likely be moving to third in a few years. With the bat, he does everything well, walks, has a good average, and hits 20 to 25 home runs a year.
Clemens figures Correa to get a 10-year contract, at $30 million a year, for a total of $300 million. That seems like a lot of years. I don’t think I’d do that for him. But let’s ask the question anyway.
Should the Jays sign Carlos Correa if the price is $30 million a year for 10 years?
Probably, but I’m not enthusiastic about if
Probably no, but I wouldn’t hate it
No, Absolutely not