Game #63 Preview: Wells vs Gausman

The Blue Jays wrap up their four game series against the Orioles this afternoon, looking to take three of four against their division foe. The gametime today is an early one, getting underway at 3:07 ET.

Blue Jays’ Starter

Kevin Gausman goes for the Jays, looking to put a halt to his personal two game losing streak. His last start wasn’t bad, when he made it through 6 innings allowing just 2 runs (and only 1 earned), but the offense was stifled that night. But it was certainly a good bounce back from his previous start, where he went just 3.2 innings, allowing 5 runs on 9 hits. The concerning thing from his start on Saturday was that he walked 3 and struck out just 4.

On the season still, Gausman is dominating. He is 5-5 with a 2.67 ERA. His 1.76 FIP is still far and away the best in baseball, and his 3.0 WAR still tops the Major Leagues by a fairly significant margin too. His K/BB ratio is sits behind only Aaron Nola, coming in at 7.70. Gausman has simply been one of the best pitchers in the Majors this year.

Orioles’ Starter

The Orioles will counter with right hander Tyler Wells. After spending 2021 pitching out of the bullpen, Wells made the transition to the rotation this year, and has found pretty good results. Through his 12 starts and 53.2 innings, he is 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA and a fairly close 4.28 FIP. He is quite stingy on the walks, allowing just 1.84 per 9 innings. The home run rate is close to average as well, but the strikeout rate is exceptionally low - of the 104 pitchers with at least 50 innings, his rate of 5.53 per 9 innings is the 6th lowest, just ahead of guys like Zack Greinke and Brad Keller.

Blue Jays’ Lineup

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bat is heating up, and to do so right before the Yankees (and I) come to town is fantastic. He enters today on a 6 game hitting streak, going 13-27 since last Friday. But the best part of that is that many of the hits aren’t cheapies, as he has a 102 mph average exit velocity in that span too. Last night was just another example of that, as he had the three hardest hit balls in the game, all at about 115 mph.

Gabriel Moreno is likely to do the catching today, but hopefully that doesn’t mean Alejandro Kirk is back on the bench. At some point the Jays are going to have to realize that they can run Kirk in the DH spot a lot more often than they have been, and the team will be better off for it.

Orioles’ Lineup

Ryan Mountcastle continued his dominance of the Jays last night. So far in this series he is 6-13, hitting 3 home runs and 2 doubles, driving in 5 of the 13 runs the Orioles have scored so far.

On the flip side of that, the Jays’ pitchers have done a great job so far of keeping Cedric Mullins’ bat at bay. He has just 2 hits, a single and a double, in 14 PA.

Tyler Nevin, Ryan McKenna and Rougned Odor are all hitless in at least 8 PA so far.

Trey Mancini is likely still out for today’s game with his sore hand. He and the Orioles are hoping he’ll be good enough to go at some point this weekend against the Rays. I also hope he’ll be in there to get some big hits in that series.

Yesterday’s Heroes

Yoan Moncada went 5-6 with a home run, a double and 3 singles, driving in 5 runs to win the Monster Bat award. His big day helped his White Sox to the 13-0 romp of the Tigers.

With 2 outs and runners on first and second, Garrett Stubbs hit a walkoff three run homer to give his Phillies the 3-1 win over the Marlins. He also chipped in a leadoff double in the bottom of the third, ultimately giving him the WPA King title with a .910 mark.

For the second straight day, a pitcher carried a no-hitter into the 9th inning, but failed to seal the deal while up over 120 pitches. This time though, Tyler Anderson gets the consolation prize of Pitcher of the Day, as his line of 8.1 innings with 1 run on 1 hit and 2 walks with 8 strikeouts was the best of the night. The bequeathed runner of Shohei Ohtani at third base scored after Anderson was pulled, but the Dodgers still beat the Angels 4-1.

Find the Link

Find the link between Cedric Mullins and Reese McGuire.

Stats retrieved from Fangraphs and Baseball Savant