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Blue Jays Mid-Term Report Cards: Kevin Gausman

Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images

Kevin Gausman was our big free agent signing back last November. He got five years and $110 million.

He came off a great year with the Giants, with a 2.81 ERA in 192 innings. He had 227 strikeouts and 50 walks. Kevin finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting.

And this year is going well too:

Standard Pitching
W L ERA G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP ERA+ FIP HR9 BB9 SO9
6 7 2.87 17 17 0 94.0 103 37 30 3 18 0 106 0 1 1 139 1.84 0.3 1.7 10.1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/15/2022.

The win-loss record isn’t what we’d like to see, but we’ve only averaged 3.89 runs per game in his starts. We have scored 3 or less in 9 of his 17 starts.

Batters are hitting .276/.307/.373 against him. So they are getting their hits, but he’s only allowed 3 home runs. It seems strange that he gave up 20 home runs in 33 starts last year. This year, so far, 3 home runs in 17 starts in a smaller park.

He’s been much better vs LHB (.244/.259/.327) than RHB (.300/.341/.406). But he has been better vs. LHB in his career.

Kevin’s numbers are much like last year’s. He’s walked fewer (4.6% from 6.5). And given up fewer home runs, but the rest of his number are much the same.

He’s been a two-pitch pitcher, but he’s mixed in the slider more this year.

Baseball Reference has him at a 1.6 WAR. FanGraphs 3.7. Why the difference? FanGraphs uses FIP. Gausman has an excellent 2.87 ERA, but his FIP is much better at 1.84, mostly because he doesn’t walk people or give up home runs.

His BABIP is much higher than in the past (.373 this year, his career number is .312). The .373 makes it seem like he’s been having some bad luck on balls in play. It should drop.

But then, only 3.4% of his fly balls are leaving the park. Career that number is 12.6%. I’d think the 3.4% number isn’t sustainable either.

Poll

For the first half I’d give Kevin Gausman an

This poll is closed

  • 38%
    A
    (108 votes)
  • 41%
    B+
    (115 votes)
  • 12%
    B
    (36 votes)
  • 4%
    B-
    (13 votes)
  • 1%
    C+
    (3 votes)
  • 0%
    C
    (2 votes)
  • 0%
    C-
    (0 votes)
  • 0%
    D+
    (0 votes)
  • 0%
    D
    (0 votes)
  • 0%
    D-
    (0 votes)
  • 0%
    F
    (0 votes)
277 votes total Vote Now