View from the other side: Twins questions for Benjamin Jones of Twinkie Town

The Blue Jays start a four-game series against the Twins tonight in Minneapolis tonight.

The Twins are in first place in the AL Central, at 54 and 49. They are a game up on the Guardians and two games up on the White Sox (as I type this Wednesday night).

They are third in the AL in runs per game, at 4.52 (Jays are second at 4.83). And they are eighth in the AL in runs allowed per game at 4.27 (Jays are sixth at 4.22).

I sent some questions to Benjamin Jones, managing editor at Twinkie Town, SB Nations fine Twins blog. I enjoyed his answers so much that I thought I’d take a shot at answering the same questions from the Blue Jays point of view, just as a bit of fun for myself. I’ll post them sometime today.

Can you give us a rundown on the Twins' moves at the deadline? Are you happy with what they have done?

The Twins made four trades, each of which was critical. They picked up Tyler Mahle, Jorge Lopez, Michael Fulmer, and Sandy Leon, while only giving up one top 10 prospect (Spencer Steer). With the logjam the Twins have at second and third this year and going forward, there wasn’t really a path to playing time for Steer anyway. They gave up some other prospects that should be solid major leaguers for a long time (Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cade Povich, Steve Hajjar), but the Twins are chock full of young major league talent that is going to be on the team for a long time.

I am super happy with what the Twins did at the deadline. Since the beginning of the season, it was obvious the Twins needed two more late-inning bullpen options and a playoff-calibre starter. Mahle, Lopez and Fulmer are exactly that. Mahle will likely be their game-one starter if the Twins make the playoffs. The bullpen especially will benefit from a cascading effect that will drastically improve the rest of the team. Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagán get pushed to middle relief, and then Rocco Baldelli can mix and match Lopez, Fulmer, rookie phenom Jhoan Duran, Caleb Thielbar, and Griffin Jax, depending on matchups.

The Twins are at the top of the AL Central. How confident at you that they will finish the season there?

I am fairly confident. The Twins addressed every weak point on their roster and got significantly better, while the Guardians and White Sox basically stood pat. According to Fangraphs, the Twins increased their playoffs odds more than any other team at the deadline. Overall, Fangraphs still favours the White Sox to win the division, but they’ve been the most disappointing team in baseball all season and haven’t played particularly well against Minnesota.

The Twins have been doubted all year, but the offense is deep and talented. They have important clubhouse leadership in Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Sonny Gray. If not for some bullpen blowups against Cleveland in June and July, Minnesota would easily have a four or five-game lead in the division. The bullpen has ostensibly been fixed, and the rotation will benefit from getting an established veteran to lead the staff.

Can we have a quick scouting report on the starting pitchers the Jays will see?

Sonny Gray takes the mound in game one, and everyone knows what he’s about. He’s good for five to six solid innings every time he takes the mound and can look dominant at times. How well he pitches tends to rely almost solely on his 2-seam fastball command. He loves to throw it inside to left-handers and have it sneak over the inside corner. In the games he has it going, he’ll get a lot of strikes looking. When he doesn’t have it, that’s when he’ll start getting into trouble.

Game two currently has the starter listed as TBD, but the expectation is that Tyler Mahle will slot in there. It’ll be his first start for the Twins, and he’ll be thrown right into the fire against Toronto’s offense. Mahle relies primarily on his 4-seamer, splitter, and curveball, all of which are above average with great command. He has an inflated ERA due to a rough start to the season and playing in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly park, but his advanced numbers paint a much better picture of who he really is.

Saturday will be Dylan Bundy. Bundy got off to a hot start with a 2.95 ERA through April and then has been downright atrocious since then, with an ERA well above 5. He’s had some decent outings recently, but I expect a short start. Whenever the Twins get Bailey Ober or Josh Winder off the IL, Bundy is a good bet to be DFA’d.

In the finale, Chris Archer will take the mound. Archer isn’t the same guy who was an All-Star with the Rays, but he’s been decent with the Twins. Even if his velocity has dipped down, he still has some good stuff, but he’s been plagued by walks and allowing solid contact. He’s good for 3-4 innings and 70 pitches every outing; anything beyond that and he typically starts to break down.

The Twins have a bunch of guys on the IL. Can we get updates on a few of them? Any news on Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Miguel Sano, Royce Lewis?

Kepler has a broken pinky toe after fouling a ball off it about a week ago, but the expectation is that his IL stay will be minimal and he should return the first day he’s eligible.

Kirilloff has dealt with nagging wrist issues for the last two years. When his wrist is feeling good, he’s been the exact type of hitter the Twins need, but when it flares up he just can’t get any power in his swing. He’s bound for offseason surgery, but the Twins are trying to manage it to get him through this season first.

Larnach got core surgery about six weeks ago and should begin a rehab assignment soon. Royce Lewis tore his ACL after a torrid start both in Triple-A and in the majors and is out for the rest of the season. The Twins are optimistic he can be ready early next season.

As for Miguel Sano, we’ve likely seen the last of him in a Twins uniform. After getting off to an atrocious start with a .083/.211/.133 batting line, he tore his meniscus in early May. After recovering from that surgery and dominating Triple-A pitching on a rehab assignment to the tune of a .348/.423/.826 line, there was a lot of optimism around the Twins that he could bring the offense to a new level when he returned. Sano returned to the Twins last week on a hitless four-game stretch where he looked completely lost at the plate. In the process, he re-aggravated his knee injury and was placed back on the 60-day IL. He has a $14 million option next season that will likely be declined with the cost-conscious Twins hoping to lock up Carlos Correa and Tyler Mahle to long-term contracts.

With three good outfielders on the IL, how are the Twins filling their shoes?

Not very well! On top of Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach being on the IL, Byron Buxton has been managing a knee injury since April and has a few days off/DH games every week, and Gilberto Celestino is currently on the paternity list (but should return soon), and Kyle Garlick has a rib injury that would almost certainly have him on the IL if it wasn’t for all the other injuries. Royce Lewis also played in the outfield before his injury. The Twins are literally out-of-position players on their 40-man roster!

So with seven of their top outfield options unavailable, what’s left is pretty barren. Nick Gordon sees a lot of time at all three spots and has been a solid backup option both in the infield and outfield when guys need days off. The other two spots are primarily taken by Jake Cave and Mark Contreras. Cave has been on the Twins for pieces of the last 4 years. He was DFA’d last winter and eventually re-signed with Minnesota on a minor league contract. The last 3 games are the first big league action he’s seen all year. As for Contreras, he’s an excellent defender that hasn’t shown much on the offensive end at Triple-A or the majors. Tim Beckham is the emergency outfield option if needed.

The good news is that Celestino and Kepler should return in the Toronto series, and Larnach should return in the next couple of weeks. Reinforcements are on the way!

You have a former Jay, Gio Urshela, who wasn’t loved in Toronto. How is he doing there?

Gio is doing what Gio’s done since his renaissance with the Yankees. He’s been about average at the plate with elite defense at third base. He’s had a flare for the dramatic with a few clutches, late-game hits for the Twins, and a walk-off two-run home run against Detroit on Monday. Before the injuries, his role started to be diminished a bit. Jose Miranda (who just won AL Rookie of the Month for July) has been on a tear since early June and has established himself as one of the best hitters on the team, full stop. Miranda’s natural position is third but has shifted over to play some first with Alex Kirilloff hurt and no longer taking games at first. There’s a small chance the Twins non-tender Urshela in the offseason, not because Gio has been bad, but he’s seemingly been usurped by Miranda.

How is Gary Sanchez doing away from the bright lights (and booing)?

I think people will fondly reflect on Sanchez’s time in Minnesota when it's all said and done. The Twins have a knack for developing catcher defense, and that’s been apparent for Sanchez as much as anyone. He’s evolved from the worst defender at the position to league average, which I think is as good as it could get for Gary. The offense has left a lot to be desired. He was supposed to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the Twins but has underperformed so significantly that he’s typically batting in the eight or nine hole when he plays. With the normal starter Ryan Jeffers out for the foreseeable future with a thumb injury, Sanchez will get every chance possible to break out of his rut and get back to who he needs to be before the playoffs.

Who is your favourite Twin to watch?

The correct answer is probably Byron Buxton or Carlos Correa, but they were always supposed to do what they’re doing. But since I’m bad at following rules, I’ll give you two players and wax poetic about the Twins' two key rookies: Jose Miranda and Jhoan Duran.

I’ve talked a lot about Miranda, so I won’t go too long, but he’s been the best hitter on the Twins for the last two months. Miranda had a breakout season in the minors last year, but I was personally never a believer. Now, he’s fully won me over. Here are the AL wRC+ leaders since June 1: Yordan Alvarez (254), Aaron Judge (183), Alejandro Kirk (179), Jose Miranda (171). As the injuries have piled up and the offense has started to struggle, Miranda has become one of the best hitters in baseball. Carlos Correa called him untouchable at the trade deadline, and he was completely correct.

The same can be for Jhoan Duran. Up until the trades this week, the Twins bullpen was their main weakness. The exception to that was Duran. Duran is 5th in MLB and 2nd in the AL in win probability added, right behind Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. His fastball sits effortlessly at 102-103 MPH, and gets stronger the longer he pitches. His curveball has some of the sharpest break I’ve ever seen, and we haven’t even talked about his signature pitch yet. That would be his “splinker”, a splitter/sinker combo that sits around 98 MPH. He’s dominated major league hitters from the first time he threw a pitch, and it’s a delight to watch every single time he’s on the mound.

Thanks Benjamin, I really enjoyed your answers.