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José Berríos came to us in trade for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. He’s 29 this year.
If you are wondering, Martin, hit .241/.367/.316 for the Twins Double-A team last year. Richardson made one start for the Twins and had a 2.77 ERA in 23 games split between Double and Triple-A.
But this is about José.
Jose was very good in his 12 starts for the Jays in 2021 and, well, terrible in his 32 starts in 2022.
The question is, “How will he do this year?”. And, of course, we won’t know the answer until the season.
Last year his strikeout rate dropped to 19.8%, down from 26.1, but his other rate stats were much the same. Hard and soft contact was much the same as in the past. He was getting line drives and ground balls at much the same rate. But then his BABIP was way up, .328 BABIP from .277 the year before.
He may have had some bad luck. His FIP was a far bit lower than his ERA. Maybe there is a reason for optimism.
But he did get some good luck. The team scored for him. They averaged 5.74 runs per game in his starts, and the team went 23-9 in his starts. Even if he has a great season, I doubt they will win 72% of his starts this year. Baseball is weird.
Steamer thinks he’ll have a bounce-back year. They are predicting a 4.14 ERA in 31 starts and 176 innings. I’d be very happy with that.
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