The Season That Was: Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman was signed as a free agent before the 2022 season as a replacement for Robbie Ray, who signed with the Mariners. Ray had a good 2022 season but only made one start this season and needed Tommy John surgery. He’ll likely be out until the middle of next season.

Gausman had a very nice first season of his five-year, $110 million contract. We didn’t have much doubt that he would continue to be good this year, even though he turned 32 this year.

Baseball Reference has him at a 3.4 WAR (up from 3.1 last year). FanGraphs at 5.3 (just short of his 5.7 last year), making him worth $42.4 million to the Blue Jays.

He had a 2.97 FIP and a 3.22 xFIP.

Kevin’s BABIP was .321 down from .363 last year. 76.8% of his baserunners were stranded up from 74.0 last year.

His line drive rate was down a fair bit (19.0% from 24.6), ground ball rate up (42.6% from 39.2), and fly ball rate was up (38.3% from 36.1).

His strikeout rate was up (31.1% from 28.3%), but his walk rate was way up (7.2% from 3.9%). Last year was the outlier.

Kevin’s soft contact was up a bit (16.5% from 15.9%) and hard contact was up (36.9% from 30.3).

In a switch from last year, Right-handed hitters (.218/.276/.342) didn’t hit him as well as left-handers (.250/.310/.422). Last year, RHB had a .763 OPS, while LHB were at .608.

Gausman was much the same on the road (3.27, batters hit .228/.292/.366) as at home (3.07, batters hit .239/.290/.393). Last year he was much better on the road.

And his first half (3.03, .233/.284/.358) was better than his second half (3.38, .233/.303/.412). He was better in the first half of last year too.

Gausman by month:

• April: 6 starts, 2-2, 2.33. Batters hit .225/.255/.347,4 home runs, 6 walks and 54 strikeouts.
• May: 5 starts, 1-1, 3.94. Batters hit .244/.304/.348, 3 home runs, 10 walks and 35 strikeouts.
• June: 6 starts, 4-1, 2.97. Batters hit .231/.295/.373, 3 home runs, 10 walks and 50 strikeouts.
• July: 4 starts, 1-1, 3.52. Batters hit .230/.280/.483, 5 home runs, 6 walks and 32 strikeouts.
• August: 5 starts, 2-3, 4.23. Batters hit .279/.331/.414, 2 home runs, 8 walks and 31 strikeouts.
• September: 5 starts, 2-1, 2.43. Batters hit .189/.289/.340, 3 home runs, 15 walks and 35 strikeouts.

A pretty consistent season.

The Jays were 16-15 in his starts. The offense averaged 3.42 runs per start in his game. They scored 3 or less 16 times and 2 or less 11 times.

Days of rest:

• 4 days, 12 games: 5.21, .273/.349/.443.
• 5 days, 15 games: 1.50, .194/.243/.291.
• 6 or more days, 4 games: 4.24, .260/.294/.510.

He was really helped out by the extra rest.

Times through the order:

• 1st: Batters hit .232/.306/.388.
• 2nd: Batters hit .216/.262/367.
• 3rd: Batters hit .261/.318/.389.
• And he faced 7 batters in the fourth time, giving up 1 double.

By Catcher:

• Kirk: 16 games: 3.18, .217/.285/.392.
• Jansen: 12 games: 3.12, .239/.281/.359.
• Heinemann: 3 games: 3.24, .297/.366/.391.

Kevin’s best start, by GameScore, was an 83, September 9th, vs. the Royals. He went 8 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned, 1 walk and 10 strikeouts.

Worst start, an 11, May 4th, vs. the Red Sox. 3.1 innings, 10 hits, 8 earned, 1 walk, and 4 strikeouts.

He averaged 6.0 innings per start.

Before the season, we asked:

• “If the over/under for Gausman’s innings pitched is 180, I’d take the”....64% were right taking the over.
• “If the over/under on Gausman’s ERA is 3.45, I’d take the”....72% were right taking the under.
• “The starting pitcher who pitches the most innings for the Jays in 2023 will be”....the majority (66%) picked Alek Manoah. Oh well, we can’t get them all right.

The team didn’t seem to want to score for Kevin. I guess some things are the luck of the draw. I wonder how often he thought about grabbing a bat and taking a swing himself. It works for Ohtani.

It amazes me that he can perform so well as a two-pitch pitcher. He threw the four-seam fastball 50.8% of the time (averaging 94.7 mph) and the split-finger fastball 38.4% (averaging 86.4 mph, a tick up from last year’s 85.2). And he did mix in a slider 10.7% of the time (slightly less than last year’s 14.3%).

His walk rate took a jump late in the season. Maybe he was tiring a bit.

Last year, he didn’t give up a walk until his sixth start, and he didn’t give up a home run until his eighth start. This year wasn’t quite the same. He gave up a walk in his first start (but didn’t give up more than two in a game until his 11th start). His first home run against was in the third start.

He was all over the league leaderboards:

• Strikeouts: 1st.
• ERA: 4th.
• Innings Pitched: 10th.
• FIP: 2nd.
• Strikeout rate: 1st, 31.1%.

His career strikeout number is now 1,603, 190th on the all-time list and 18th among active pitchers.

We were hoping for a better start in the Wild Card game. I guess you can’t have everything you want. We have him for three more seasons. Hopefully, he’ll get more playoff starts. And some wins.