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2023 Know Your Enemy: NL West

Can the Dodgers Win the Division Again?

NLDS: Dodgers vs Padres Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

For the first time ever, the Blue Jays will be playing every team in Major League Baseball this year, so the annual preview of opponents naturally has to grow. This series starts with the National League West teams.

Los Angeles Dodgers (2022: 1st place, 111-51)

Blue Jays @ Dodgers July 24-26

The Dodgers won the division for the ninth time in ten seasons last year, taking the division by 22 games over the second place Padres. Their 111 wins tied them for the fourth most in baseball history, getting there with an MLB-best 119 wRC+ and 2.80 ERA.

They had a few notable departures, including Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson and Craig Kimbrel.

To replace them, they brought in J.D. Martinez, Miguel Rojas, David Peralta, Yonny Hernandez and Jason Heyward on the position player side, while veterans Noah Syndergaard and Shelby Miller were brought in to bolster the pitching staff.

With one of the best farm systems in baseball, they didn’t need to go out and add a lot of pieces, just enough to tread water as they break in their next wave of stars.

The Dodgers were dealt a pretty significant blow this past week, as projected starting shortstop Gavin Lux tore his ACL. After Corey Seager and Trea Turner left the last couple seasons, Lux was poised to take the SS position for a few years. Now that he’s out for the season, defensive whiz Miguel Rojas will handle the position for 2023.

Projected Lineup

Mookie Betts, RF
Freddie Freeman, 1B
Will Smith, C
Max Muncy, 3B
J.D. Martinez, DH
David Peralta/Chris Taylor, LF
Trayce Thompson, CF
Miguel Vargas, 2B
Miguel Rojas, SS

Projected Rotation

Clayton Kershaw
Julio Urias
Tony Gonsolin
Noah Syndergaard
Dustin May

Notable Bullpen Arms

Evan Phillips
Alex Vesia
Brusdar Graterol
Caleb Ferguson
Yency Almonte
Shelby Miller

Fangraphs projects them as the second best team in the division for 2023, an 86-76 record.

PECOTA still believes in them though, giving them top projection in the division at 94.4-67.6.

San Diego Padres (2022: 89-73, 2nd Place, Wild Card)

Padres @ Blue Jays July 18-20

The Padres finished in second place last year, earning a wild card birth for the second time in the last three seasons. Prior to 2020, they hadn’t had a winning season since 2010, and hadn’t made the playoffs since 2006.

They had a few notable departures over the offseason, including Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, Will Myers, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger.

They have since upped their payroll to a franchise best $249m to open the season, up from an estimated final 2022 payroll of $214m.

The biggest offseason addition was SS Xander Bogaerts, who came over on an 11 year, $280m contract. On top of that, they extended Manny Machado for 11 years as well, for $350m of his own, as well as Joe Musgrove (5 years, $100m), Yu Darvish (6 years, $108m) and Robert Suarez (5 years, $46m).

Other notable additions to the roster include Nelson Cruz, Matt Carpenter, Rougned Odor, Adam Engel, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo.

Projected Lineup

Xander Bogaerts, SS
Juan Soto, LF
Manny Machado, 3B
Jake Cronenworth, 1B
Nelson Cruz, DH
Matt Carpenter, RF
Ha-Seong Kim, 2B
Trent Grisham, CF
Austin Nola, C

Fernando Tatis Jr. has a few weeks remaining on his 80 game suspension. He is eligible to return on April 20, and is likely to be an outfielder when he returns.

Projected Rotation

Yu Darvish
Blake Snell
Michael Wacha
Nick Martinez
Seth Lugo

Notable Bullpen Arms

Josh Hader
Robert Suarez
Luis Garcia
Drew Pomeranz
Steven Wilson

Fangraphs projects them as the best of the division, at 91-71.

PECOTA projects them for second place, at 93.3-68.7.

San Francisco Giants (2022: 81-81, 3rd Place)

Giants @ Blue Jays June 27-29

After winning the division in 2021 with a 107-55 record, their fall to a .500 team in 2022 can be viewed as nothing short of disappointing.

In an effort to rebound from their giant fall, they set their sights on the top of the free agent boards this past winter, signing both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. Of course, both of those signings never came to fruition after reported deals were complete, instead falling back to some relatively notable signings regardless.

After losing Carlos Rodón and Brandon Belt to free agency, the Giants went out and added several solid contributing pieces. Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto bring some left handed balance to their lineup. Roberto Pérez came over on a minor league deal and likely is the backup catcher to Joey Bart.

On the pitching side of things, they brought in Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling to cover the loss of Rodón, while Taylor Rogers joins his twin Tyler in the bullpen.

Projected Lineup

LaMonte Wade Jr, 1B
Thairo Estrada, 2B
Joc Pederson, DH
Mitch Haniger, RF
Mike Yastrzemski, CF
Michael Conforto, LF
David Villar, 3B
Brandon Crawford, SS
Joey Bart, C

Projected Rotation

Logan Webb
Alex Cobb
Sean Manaea
Ross Stripling
Alex Wood

Notable Bullpen Arms

Camilo Doval
Taylor Rogers
John Brebbia
Tyler Rogers
Scott Alexander
Jakob Junis

Fangraphs projects them as the third best team in the division, at 83-79.

PECOTA projects them to third place as well, at 80.6-81.4.

Arizona Diamondbacks (2022: 74-88, 4th Place)

Diamondbacks @ Blue Jays July 14-16

The Diamondbacks won 74 games last year, their highest total since 2019. Their strong young core is continuing to develop, and they may be able to push relevance fairly soon.

Their biggest loss from the roster over the offseason was obviously Daulton Varsho, although they did get Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in exchange. Also off the roster are Caleb Smith, Jordan Luplow and Ian Kennedy.

Notable additions are obviously Gurriel and Moreno, plus Evan Longoria, Kyle Lewis and Miguel Castro.

Projected Lineup

Corbin Carroll, LF
Ketel Marte, 2B
Jake McCarthy, RF
Christian Walker, 1B
Josh Rojas, 3B
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., DH
Alek Thomas, CF
Carson Kelly, C
Nick Ahmed, SS

Projected Rotation

Zac Gallen
Merrill Kelly
Madison Bumgarner
Zach Davies
Ryne Nelson

Notable Bullpen Arms

Andrew Chafin
Kevin Ginkle
Joe Mantiply
Mark Melancon
Miguel Castro

Fangraphs projects them to fourth place, with a 77-85 record.

PECOTA also has them fourth, just a bit worse overall at 73.8-88.2.

Colorado Rockies (2022: 68-94, Last Place)

Blue Jays @ Rockies September 1-3

The Rockies were were about as bad last year as they were projected to be, winning exactly as many games as their PECOTA projection. Their biggest move prior to 2022 was the big contract given to Kris Bryant, who played all of 42 games for them in 2022. Bryant is healthy now though, and is likely to remain in the outfield.

Notable losses from their 94 loss team include Garrett Hampson, Wynton Bernard, Alex Colomé, José Iglesias, Carlos Estévez, Chad Kuhl and Connor Joe.

Joining their roster for 2023 are Nolan Jones, Harold Castro, Mike Moustakas, Connor Seabold, Pierce Johnson, Brad Hand and Brent Suter.

Projected Lineup

Yonathan Daza, CF
Charlie Blackmon, RF
Kris Bryant, LF
C.J. Cron, 1B
Ryan McMahon, 2B
Sean Bouchard, DH
Nolan Jones, 3B
Elias Díaz, C
Ezequiel Tovar, SS

Brendan Rogers has gone for likely season ending surgery on his left shoulder. Randal Grichuk had sports hernia surgery, and is likely gone for 6-8 weeks. He’s likely to miss the start of the season.

Projected Rotation

Germán Márquez
Kyle Freeland
José Ureña
Austin Gomber
Connor Seabold

Notable Bullpen Arms

Daniel Bard
Pierce Johnson
Dinelson Lamet
Brad Hand
Justin Lawrence
Brent Suter

Fangraphs has them projected for last place once again, at 65-97.

PECOTA is roughly the same, at 64.2-97.8.


Who will win the NL West?

This poll is closed

  • 52%
    (77 votes)
  • 45%
    (67 votes)
  • 0%
    (0 votes)
  • 1%
    (2 votes)
  • 0%
    (1 vote)
147 votes total Vote Now


How many of the 15 games will the Jays win?

This poll is closed

  • 18%
    10 or more
    (25 votes)
  • 69%
    (94 votes)
  • 11%
    (15 votes)
  • 1%
    5 or fewer
    (2 votes)
136 votes total Vote Now

Stats, payroll and projected rosters were all retrieved from the amazing Fangraphs!
Baseball Prospectus is the home of the PECOTA projections.