Game #5 Preview: Francis vs Blanco

After earning the split at the Trop, the Blue Jays head to Houston to take on the somehow 0-4 Astros for a three game series. Since the Jays are venturing into the central time zone, tonight’s game has a later start than normal at 8:10 ET.

Blue Jays’ Starter

Bowden Francis will be making his first big league start tonight, something that he has very much earned. His big league career thus far has consisted of 37 relief innings with a 1.70 ERA, putting up strong strikeout numbers while doing a great job limiting walks. His spring training was also good, giving up a 3.38 ERA over 18.2 innings, once again loading up the strike zone with quality pitches.

He’s in for a tough first start against a hungry Astros team, but I’m excited to see how he does.

Astros’ Starter

The Astros will go with long-time Minor Leaguer Ronel Blanco. Originally signing with the Astros as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, the now 30 year old finally made his big league debut in 2022 with a handful of games out of the bullpen, and then had a bit of a longer look last season. His time in the Majors hasn’t been great, as he has pitched to a 4.78 ERA over 58.1 innings, split between the bullpen and rotation.

Blanco does a decent job getting strikeouts, setting down about 23% of the batters he has faced in the Majors. But ever since his early days in the Minors he has struggled with control issues, and that has followed him to the Majors, giving up 32 walks in his 58.1 innings. For a Jays’ team that worked 8 walks yesterday, Blanco could be in for a rough night if the Jays’ bats are as patient.

Blue Jays’ Lineup

Bo Bichette was a late scratch yesterday with a neck spasm. While the Jays did do fine without him, they’re a better team when he’s on the field, so hopefully he’s back tonight. If not, expect Ernie Clement to make another start out there. Clement has looked good so far this year, with perhaps the biggest shock to me is a 29.4 fps sprint speed, which has him near the top of all players in baseball.

Justin Turner had a great day at the plate yesterday while making his first non-DH start. After watching his work at third base, it’s hard to imagine John Schneider being eager to write his name there too often. Turner will likely be back to the DH spot tonight after George Springer got DH duties yesterday.

Kevin Kiermaier had the day off yesterday, a convenient rest day as the Jays were facing a lefty and he’s not going to play 4 straight days very often. He’ll be back out in CF tonight, with Springer in RF and Varsho in LF.

Alejandro Kirk got a little bit of a reprieve from catching as Brian Serven took over catching duties in the 8th inning. Kirk is likely to catch tonight and at least once more this series, although with an off day Thursday, Kirk may be lined up to start all three. I’m sure Danny Jansen’s return to the active roster will be a welcome sight for him.

Astros’ Lineup

Despite getting swept in their four games against the Yankees, the Astros’ hitters put up a decent fight. Collectively they hit .259/.327/.345 (98 wRC+), so the only thing that was really missing was the power. Jose Altuve and Jake Meyers were the only ones to collect a home run over the weekend, and Altuve was the only one to have more than one extra base hit.

Sophomore catcher Yainer Diaz had a good series, picking up 6 hits and 2 walks over the 4 days. Former rookie of the year Jeremy Peña, who is looking for a bit of a bounceback year after falling off some in his second year, is off to a good start as well.

Yordan Alvarez was probably the disappointment of the weekend for the Astros, as the big bat just couldn’t get going, collecting only a pair of singles in his 19 PA.

The biggest concern in Astros land is probably centered on José Abreu though. He had a horrible 86 wRC+ season in his first year with Houston last year after signing a 3 year, $58.5m deal. While it was just 4 games this weekend, he failed to pick up a hit in his 13 PA. With Jon Singleton as his current threat to losing playing time, Abreu will be given a lot of chances. But the Astros might be looking at a pretty weak position again this season.

Yesterday’s Heroes

With his big day at the plate, Justin Turner is the first Blue Jay to take home an award. Turner went 3-4 with a home run, double, single and a walk, driving in 4 runs and earning the Monster Bat award in the Jays’ 9-2 win over the Rays.

Max Muncy hit a 2-run home run in the bottom of the 8th to give the Dodgers a 5-4 lead and him a .579 WPA, but that wasn’t quite enough to earn him the WPA King title. He lost that crown to Ian Happ, who put up a slightly better .585 mark thanks to a big early double in the fourth inning that gave his Cubs a nice lead, and then a bases loaded walk in the top of the 9th to give his Cubs the lead again, this time for good as they beat the Rangers 9-5.

Brady Singer threw 7 shutout innings against the Twins, striking out 10 along the way as he narrowly edges out Paul Blackburn (7 shutout innings with just 3 strikeouts) for the Pitcher of the Day honours. Singer also picked up the win, the first of the season for any Royals’ pitcher, in the 11-0 beat down of the Twins.

Find the Link

Find the link between Ronel Blanco and Santiago Espinal.

Stats retrieved from Fangraphs and Baseball Savant