Bluebird Banter - All PostsRoster moves R Us.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47723/bluebird-fv.png2024-03-19T05:00:00-04:00http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/rss/current/2024-03-19T05:00:00-04:002024-03-19T05:00:00-04:002024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 25-28
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<p>A quartet of interesting pitchers</p> <p id="EWEHzn">The run through the Top 40 of the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> farm system continues with a call to arms. Today’s entry contains one more safe backend or #6 starter, and then a run of three very interesting arms with mid rotation upside but questions to answer.</p>
<p id="NyU74L">2024: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23626867/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects">Full List and Index</a> | 25-28 | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/18/24084247/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-29-32">29-32</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/16/24087210/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-33-36">33-36</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/15/24079349/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-37-40">37-40</a></p>
<p id="ruzwA4">2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23626867/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects">Full List and Index</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/27/23364813/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-1-4">1-4</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/24/23580856/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-5-8">5-8</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/22/23591748/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-9-12">9-12</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/20/23597715/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-13-16">13-16</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/18/23609708/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-17-20">17-20</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/16/23615718/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-21-24">21-24</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/14/23615976/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-25-28">25-28</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/11/23607542/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-29-32">29-32</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/8/23324788/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-33-36">33-36</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23614770/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-37-40">37-40</a><br>Beyond the Top 40: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/1/23324730/beyond-the-2023-top-40-blue-jays-prosects-just-missed-list">Just Missed</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/25/23303372/beyond-the-2023-top-40-top-five-older-blue-jays-prospects">Top 5 Older</a> | Pref Lists: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/12/4079356/beyond-the-2023-top-40-matt-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">Matt</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/23/23311450/beyond-the-2023-top-40-tom-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">Tom</a></p>
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<h4 id="t5Ier4">28. Pat Gallagher, RHP, age 24 in 2024 (DOB: 6/30/2000), grade: 35, 2023: unranked</h4>
<p id="rBVKIG">Gallagher was selected in the 11th round of the 2022 draft out of the University of Connecticut (George Springer’s alma mater). He was shut down after the draft, having already logged 103 innings on the year, and 2023 represented his pro debut. </p>
<p id="qSfgvW">He got started a bit late, not making his first appearance until mid May, and was mostly limited to short starts in the 3-4 inning range. He was very effective when on the mound, though, racking up 75 strikeouts to 18 walks across 63.1 innings with an overall 3.13 ERA.</p>
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<p id="eCgUAM">Gallagher doesn’t throw hard (88-91mph), but his whippy delivery from a low three quarters arm slot produces a lot of arm side run and creates tricky angles for hitters. His breaking ball is a big slow curve at 79 that has some depth and above average horizontal movement. The star of the show is his split finger changeup, which gets huge depth and is the source of most of his swings and misses. </p>
<p id="onC8i9">The lack of velocity will present a challenge for Gallagher as he begins to face more advanced hitters. His advantage is that the change is so dynamic that it can work without forcing the batter to gear up for high heat. Whether this combo works will determine whether Gallagher can achieve his ceiling as a back of the rotation option.</p>
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<h4 id="auTtZB">27. Yondrei Rojas, RHP, age 21 (DOB: 11/22/2002), grade: 35+, <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/12/4079356/beyond-the-2023-top-40-matt-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">2023: Matt’s pre</a>f list</h4>
<p id="2GLtCs">Rojas was signed in 2021 out of Venezuela as an 18-year-old, spent that summer in the Dominican Summer League, progressed to the States in 2022, including a cup of coffee with Dunedin, and spent the whole season there in 2023.</p>
<p id="yDdgOQ">a series of nagging injuries have limited him to just 99 innings over his two full seasons, and his surface level results (a 5.66 ERA in 2023 with a 42:21 K:BB ratio in 49 innings with Dunedin) haven’t been great when he’s healthy.</p>
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<p id="rZvXx1">The reason he still makes the list is that he has loud stuff, starting with a fastball that sits 93-94 and can touch 96 with solid run. He pitches mostly off that fastball but complements it with a change at 85 that has decent movement, and two breaking balls: a slider in the mid 80s and a curve around 79-80. The slider can generate big glove side movement at its best, although the movement is inconsistent, and the curve gets decent depth. He works from a low arm slot and is a good enough athlete that above average command might come in the future. </p>
<p id="KUlNmD">Rojas stands just 5’10”, which combined with his propensity to get hurt argues for an eventual future in the bullpen. The stuff, repertoire depth, and athleticism give him significant upside if he can stay healthy and handle a starter’s workload, though. At just 21, assume the Jays will give him at least a couple more years to chase that potential.</p>
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<h4 id="vGvSL0">26. Fernando Perez, RHP, age 20 (DOB: 2/12/2004), grade: 35+, 2023: unranked</h4>
<p id="iMaOMK">An under the radar signing out of Nicaragua during the January 2022 international free agent period, Perez has impressed by dominating the DSL and the Florida Complex League in his first two pro seasons, cumulatively racking up 105 Ks vs just 17 BBs in 93.1 innings. </p>
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<img alt="Fernando Perez 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C-tl9TuTqWVhaWzA36cMxk8-7AU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25343555/Fernando_Perez.png">
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<p id="IJng59">Perez is uncommonly polished for a teenager, with three quality pitches already in his arsenal and feel to land all of them for strikes. His fastball sits 92-93 and touches 95, with a little room for muscle left on his 6’3”, 170lb frame. He complements it with a breaking ball in the low 80s that shows above average potential and a solid changeup. </p>
<p id="BXxLDG">None of the pitches shows clear plus potential, and Perez is not an outstanding athlete, but with feel for a full complement of average to above average pitches he could comfortably work out as a back end starter. If more muscle and velocity do come, there’s potential for a little more than that. </p>
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<h4 id="rM3kG5">25. CJ Van Eyk, RHP, age 25 (DOB: 9/15/1998), grade: 35+, 2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/18/23609708/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-17-20">17th</a>
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<p id="YpCiT1">The 42nd overall pick of the pandemic draft, Van Eyk was the Florida State Seminoles’ ace in a College World Series run. </p>
<p id="cxEhzC">His pro career has been rockier so far. In 2021, he debuted at A+ Vancouver with an impressive 28% strikeout rate but too many walks (11%) and an ERA well into the 5s. He missed all of 2022 getting Tommy John surgery, and had a stop and start 2023, coming back in May but missing several stretches of starts and compiling only 34.1 innings. In his 18 innings in A ball he dominated, but a AA cameo to end the season was disappointing, with 7 Ks to 6 walks in 13.1 innings over 4 appearances.</p>
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<p id="G8KACZ">He retains a spot on the list because when he is healthy, the stuff is impressive. His fastball sits 91-93 and touches 95, with big arm side run that helps it play above its velocity. His primary breaking ball is a pretty arc of a curve at 81, with big two plane movement. He can pair it with a shorter slider to deceive hitters and steal strikes. Rounding out the arsenal is a change at 83 that like the fastball has major arm side run. </p>
<p id="WtCm4x">Van Eyk’s delivery and mechanics are clean, and he’s a decent athlete, but his command has been very inconsistent as a pro, from start to start and within outings. It’s something that a run of heath and consistent reps could hopefully improve.</p>
<p id="98hTkO">This ranking is something of a punt. Van Eyk is more talented than the players around him on the list, but whether he can both get healthy and put the tools together is very much up in the air. If he’s healthy and performing in AA, he’ll rocket up the list by midseason. If 2024 is another year of struggles with health and/or consistency, he’ll age off the list and likely wind up unprotected in the rule 5 draft this winter. </p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/19/24076231/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-25-28Tom__M2024-03-18T15:50:08-04:002024-03-18T15:50:08-04:002024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 29-32
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<p>A grouping of mostly young hitters looking to get back on track</p> <p id="EWEHzn">The Top 40 of the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> farm system picks up with one more nearer-term pitcher, before moving to some lower level positional players looking to rebound in 2025 for various reasons. </p>
<p id="NyU74L">2024: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23626867/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects">Full List and Index</a> | 29-32 | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/16/24087210/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-33-36">33-36</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/15/24079349/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-37-40">37-40</a></p>
<p id="ruzwA4">2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23626867/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects">Full List and Index</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/27/23364813/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-1-4">1-4</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/24/23580856/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-5-8">5-8</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/22/23591748/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-9-12">9-12</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/20/23597715/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-13-16">13-16</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/18/23609708/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-17-20">17-20</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/16/23615718/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-21-24">21-24</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/14/23615976/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-25-28">25-28</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/11/23607542/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-29-32">29-32</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/8/23324788/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-33-36">33-36</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23614770/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-37-40">37-40</a><br>Beyond the Top 40: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/1/23324730/beyond-the-2023-top-40-blue-jays-prosects-just-missed-list">Just Missed</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/25/23303372/beyond-the-2023-top-40-top-five-older-blue-jays-prospects">Top 5 Older</a> | Pref Lists: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/12/4079356/beyond-the-2023-top-40-matt-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">Matt</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/23/23311450/beyond-the-2023-top-40-tom-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">Tom</a></p>
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<h4 id="t5Ier4">32. Trenton Wallace, LHP, age 25 in 2024 (DOB: 3/31/1999), grade: 35, 2023: unranked</h4>
<p id="rBVKIG">Wallace was selected in the 11th round of the 2022 draft out of the University of Iowa, signing for $172,500 (slightly above the post-10th round slot of $150,000). He debuted briefly with Dunedin and missed most of the first month of the 2022 season, but dominated for the next year.</p>
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<img alt="Trenton Wallace 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/93aOjhyLuuju5Ngs0Bp5dn-bmL8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25342987/Trenton_Wallace.png">
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<p id="qSfgvW">11 shorter outings as he built up in Dunedin yielded a 1.11 ERA with 55 strikeouts against 16 free passes in 40.2 innings and a quick bump-up to high-A. Wallace’s nine starts were good for a 3.66 ERA and another 55 strikeouts in 39.1, though the free passes ballooned to 35. He limited batters to just a hit every other inning. Back to Vancouver in 2023, the control came back in line for a 1.79 ERA and early June promotion to the real testing game. Unfortunately, after two starts he hit the IL until the very end of the season.</p>
<p id="eCgUAM">The 6’1”, 200 pound lefty pitches throws from a very low, essentially sidearm slot, making for a tough angle on hitters. He’s got a true four pitch mix, his fastball sitting around 90mph, a change-up that gets some late fade, a low-80s slider and mid-70s sweeping curve. They’re all pitches he uses to mix and match and keep hitters off balance. </p>
<p id="onC8i9">On one hand, there’s nothing that grades out as plus, and the loud performance has been at the lower levels as opposed to more experiences hitters with an approach against pitchers who can pitch. There’s risk he stalls out in the upper levels on that basis. The future profile is uncertain as well: it’s not obvious there’s the enough start to be a regular in the rotation, and he doesn’t have the couple of big pitches one usually sees in the bullpen. Still, the breadth of solid stuff in the arsenal, left-handedness and angle create a real chance of some sort of major league future. </p>
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<h4 id="auTtZB">31. Tucker Toman, IF, age 20 (DOB: 11/12/2003), grade: 35, 2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/22/23591748/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-9-12">10th</a>
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<p id="nVZtql">Toman was selected in the second round of the 2022 draft, receiving a $2,000,000 bonus commensurate with a late first round supplemental pick (about 39th overall), to sign him away from <a href="https://www.andthevalleyshook.com">LSU</a>. He briefly debuted to a .290/.391/.368 line in 11 complex games.</p>
<p id="0A7eNj">Offensive potential was the core of the 6’1”, 190 pound switch-hitting infielder’s profile, and considered advanced as the son of a long-time college coach (Jim). Especially from the left side, Toman was lauded for a sweet swing and power. Defensively, opinions ranged from “might stick at SS” to “likely destined for the corner outfield”, making for at least superficial parallels to Bo Bichette’s profile. He was on the older side of the high school draft class.</p>
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<img alt="Tucker Toman 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VacBu1vZwVw0Wt7zD5y7m-4Sowk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25342989/Tucker_Toman.png">
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<p id="htllAq">Toman had a rough go of low-A in 2023, posting a .208/.320/.313 slash line in 503 plate appearances. He struck out 27% of the time while making little good contact, failing to show the pop he has had flashed on the high school showcase circuit. Perhaps a fresh start and reset in 2024 will help matters, and perhaps focusing on hitting from his better side only could help, but it was one of if not the biggest disappointments in the system in 2023.</p>
<p id="KUlNmD">Last year we noted that it was the far right tail outcomes drives Toman’s expected value, with about 10% of draftees becoming impact regulars and a further 10% producing material value. Though not definitive, the complete lack of offensive production is a strong negative inference for the expectation of achieving those outcomes. That said, some of that pedigree is reserved on the possibility is was a really bad year and he figures it out. If not, he’s likely to fade right off the list next year. </p>
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<h4 id="vGvSL0">30. Dasan Brown, OF, age 22 (DOB: 9/25/2001), grade: 35, 2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/16/23615718/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-21-24">24th</a>
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<p id="iMaOMK">The native of Oakville, Ontario was selected by the Jays in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft, bought out of his <a href="https://www.goodbullhunting.com/"><strong>Texas A&M</strong></a> commitment for an above slot $800,000 bonus. One of the youngest players in his draft class, he epitomized “toolsy” and “raw” with true 80-grade speed to only wreak havoc on the bases, and profile as an impact centrefield defender. What left him available to the Jays were questions about his swing mechanics and ultimately hit tool. </p>
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<img alt="Dasan Brown 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TDzgLIBbHIaCcy81mKXkC6foQYc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25342990/Dasan_Brown.png">
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<p id="Peu6rn">The results in pro ball have been up-and-down. After the 2020 layoff, Brown looked over-matched at low-A, slashing .212/.310/.323 with a 33% strikeout rate. By contrast, 2022 was encouraging first at Dunedin and continuing to produce at high-A after a midseason promotion to Vancouver. Though BABIP-inflated, his .283/.383/.420 combined line worked out to more than 30% above, and while the strikeout rate remained elevated at 28%, it did come in a bit. </p>
<p id="DeyNzg">Unfortunately, 2023 was a step back, as Brown’s production crated to .218/.309/.315 without the benefit of a very high BABIP. On the positive side, he was a standout in centre with plenty of highlight reel grabs, and one small offensive positive was the strikeout rate coming further in to 25%. The power regressed, but he did show the ability to turn on the odd pitch and punish it. </p>
<p id="fSPPLa">At this point, one has to evaluate Brown more as what he is than dreaming on what he could be. the 2023 stat-line is likely a touch harsh, but it’s hard to project even a 40-grade hit tool to profile as a regular. His defensive and baserunning abilities still give Brown a real shot at carving out some major league role, but a significant hit to the right tail of the distribution is the major difference from last year and drives the reduced expected value. </p>
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<h4 id="rM3kG5">29. Adrian Pinto, 2B, age 21 (DOB: 9/22/2002), grade: 35, 2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/14/23615976/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-25-28">25th</a>
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<p id="piKyYM">An under-the-radar signing in July 2019 out of Venezuela for $120,000 by the Rockies, the Jays acquired Pinto in the Randal Grichuk/Raimel Tapia deal just one year into his career. And while it was just the DSL and the caverats that entails, what a year it was. In 2021, Pinto posted .360/.486/.543 line with 41 stolen bases in 49 attempts. Notably, he walked 17% of time while striking out just 9%. It was reminiscent of the video game numbers Alejandro Kirk put up in 2018 at Bluefield.</p>
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<p id="4cD5hX">The ascent has stalled the last couple years, as though Pinto moved directly to low-A, a series of injuries has limited him to 87 games and 323 plate appearances for Dunedin. In the fits and starts he has been on the field, the production has been solid if unspectacular, slashing .249/.390/.338, mathematically about 17% above league average. The plate discipline has held up, with 15% walks against 18% strikeouts and ground ball/low-launch angle oriented contact. He swiped 30 bases in 39 tries. </p>
<p id="zMilP2">Listed at 5’6” and 156 pounds, Pinto likely isn’t going to end up with more than gap power. The speed and plate discipline add intriguing potential if the hit tool stands up at higher levels. That, in addition to his ability to stay on the field, will determine whether Pinto could be a future regular, or more of a complementary piece. </p>
<p id="0Zux1C">Given another injury-plagued year with middling production, there’s a small hit to Pinto’s expected value with an increase in the odds of not making it and the ceiling left largely intact but scaled down. Preserving or regaining that ceiling probability going forward however will require staying on the field and producing tangible results. </p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/18/24084247/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-29-32Matt W2024-03-18T10:07:00-04:002024-03-18T10:07:00-04:00Better Know Your Blue Jays 40-Man: Erik Swanson
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PymYig9hjmHwcM17AHMQCNLxNDE=/0x0:3772x2515/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73215074/usa_today_21445001.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="7WFsgQ"><strong>Erik Swanson</strong> is a 29-year-old right-handed reliever.</p>
<p id="McEdRJ">The Blue Jays picked him up in a trade from the Mariners, along with minor leaguer Adam Macko, in exchange for Teoscar Hernandez. I have always hated trading everyday players for relievers, but such is life. </p>
<p id="fRehUP">Hernandez played 160 games for the M’s, hitting .258/.305/.435 with 26 home runs. Baseball reference has him at a 2.1 WAR last year. Now he’s a Dodger. </p>
<p id="9nGrT7">Macko made 20 starts for the Vancouver Canadians. He had a 4.49 ERA, with 76 hits, 40 walks and 106 strikeouts in 86 innings.</p>
<p id="y4J4vn">Swanson became an important part of our bullpen. He pitched in 69 games with a 2.97 ERA, 4 saves and 29 holds (leading the team). Batters hit .217/.280/.358 against him. And he was pretty much as good against LHB (.610 OPS) and RHB (.660 OPS). </p>
<p id="y5PxA9">He threw a splitter (47.5% of the time), four-seam fastball (93.7 mph, 34.6%), slider (14.8%) and a few cutters (3.0%). </p>
<p id="ieKbxx">Unfortunately, Erik had a slow start to spring training when his son, Toby, was hit by a truck. It looks like his son<a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/C4gwvE_O6aP/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=cea886fa-bf51-48bd-95a7-a210aad01f39&img_index=1"> is recovering</a>. Fortunately, Erik doesn’t have to build up to throwing 6 innings at a time. He’s thrown 1.2 innings in spring games, allowing 1 hit and 2 walks, with a strikeout and a balk. </p>
<p id="UTqYmB">PECOTA figures he will pitch in 52 games, with 20 holds and a 3.90 ERA (I’m taking the under). </p>
<p id="FNaMAF">ZiPS: 61 games, with a 3.60 ERA. </p>
<p id="wPe3AL">Steamer: 64 games with a 3.83 ERA. </p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/18/24104402/better-know-your-blue-jays-40-man-erik-swansonTom Dakers2024-03-18T08:35:00-04:002024-03-18T08:35:00-04:00Know Your Enemy: 2024 NL Central
<figure>
<img alt="Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SkwRBzoi5gPPpYD4HkkmzaQ_BK4=/0x0:3858x2572/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73214844/519854378.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Set Number: SI308 TK1</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="1nraRp">With no standout team, this will be a division that will be fighting with each other for a division title and the virtually guaranteed spot in the Wild Card Series as the worst division winner. It should be a tight fight all the way through. </p>
<h3 id="r8mZVW"><strong>Milwaukee Brewers</strong></h3>
<p id="lID0iZ">2023 Record: 92-70, swept by the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> in the Wild Card Series. </p>
<p id="8kaW2Y">2024 games vs Blue Jays: June 10-12 in Milwaukee. </p>
<p id="Uoe4fe"><strong>Notable Stars</strong></p>
<p id="73siNx">While he’s no longer the perennial MVP candidate, Christian Yelich is still a good player and is the biggest name on this list. Behind Yelich are catcher William Contreras and the soon-to-be-departed Willy Adames. The <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> brought in the Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez to try and bolster the offense, but it’s fairly unlikely this is an offensive group that can even make it to the middle of the pack.</p>
<p id="KAPEKG">The Brewers traded away their yearly Cy Young candidate in Corbin Burnes, and have lost star reliever Devin Williams for at least half the season. Also on the IL are starting pitchers Wade Miley and Brandon Woodruff. All of that is to say that this is a lot weaker pitching staff than last year, lacking in the star power it had previously. </p>
<p id="n1MFf3"><strong>Upcoming Attractions</strong></p>
<p id="Sy3DMV">Jackson Chourio is the big name here, as the outfielder is one of the biggest prospects in the game. He also recently signed a mega-extension despite not making it to the big leagues. He will this year though, likely breaking camp with the club in CF. </p>
<p id="QIxHml">Aside from Chourio, the Brewers are likely to get contributions from catcher Jeferson Quero, infielder Joey Ortiz (who came over from Baltimore in the Burnes deal) and pitcher Robert Gasser. </p>
<p id="QuxAjL"><strong>2024 Projections</strong></p>
<p id="UDRnbd">Despite winning the division last year, the outlook doesn’t look good for the Brewers this year. Fangraphs projects them to an 80-82 record while PECOTA is pretty much right there as well giving them 79.5-82.5 projection.</p>
<h3 id="iE0zl7"><strong>Chicago Cubs</strong></h3>
<p id="r2kKiH">2023 Record: 83-79, 9 games behind first, 1 game out of wild card. </p>
<p id="wciQRK">2024 games vs Blue Jays: August 16-18 in Chicago</p>
<p id="hYJo8L"><strong>Notable Stars</strong></p>
<p id="tVr4jL">The <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> managed to bring back Cody Bellinger after he had a great bounceback season in 2023. He’ll be reunited with a strong top of the lineup that includes Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel and Dansby Swanson. Nico Hoerner had a great first year moving over to second base, teaming up with Swanson to take home the Gold Glove award on both sides of second base. Ian Happ also received the award for his work in LF last year. </p>
<p id="qYzBDW">The Cubs won the bidding on Shota Imanaga, bringing him in to join Justin Steele and veteran Kyle Hendricks in what could be a strong rotation. Former Blue Jays Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. managed to have breakout seasons in the bullpen last year, and if they can repeat, the Cubs should have a strong bullpen as well. </p>
<p id="62MNt7"><strong>Upcoming Attractions</strong></p>
<p id="G4a0uX">The Cubs should see a few high profile prospects getting some meaningful playing time this year. Outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the list, although he is likely not breaking camp with the club. Jordan Wicks seems likely to land a rotation spot to start the year, while Ben Brown is likely to be shortly behind. Outfielders Kevin Alcántara and Canadian Owen Caissie look to be mid-season reinforcements if the Cubs are in need. </p>
<p id="SocO9w"><strong>2024 Projections</strong></p>
<p id="C80KR4">Fangraphs has them finishing second in the division at 82-80, right in line with PECOTA’s 82.1-79.9. </p>
<h3 id="fNNIiT"><strong>Cincinnati Reds</strong></h3>
<p id="ObROZM">2023 Record: 82-80, 10 games behind first, 2 games behind wild card. </p>
<p id="KvfcX7">2024 games vs Blue Jays: August 19-21 in Toronto.</p>
<p id="DWYHKi"><strong>Notable Stars</strong></p>
<p id="oFx0v7">The Reds have officially moved into the post-Votto era, entering a season for the first time since 2002 without the Canadian first baseman in their system. Youngster Elly De La Cruz made some headlines last year after an electric debut, but struggled as the season wore on. The offense will be headed by some promising young players including Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley and Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Will Benson. Former Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been relegated to mostly DH duties, while newcomer Jeimer Candelario looks to be a solid bat in the middle of the lineup. </p>
<p id="dE2RVj">The rotation has a lot of promise for the Reds this season, with the trio of Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott being joined by veterans Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. Alexis Díaz looks to lead a bullpen that is likely to see a lot of turnover throughout the season. </p>
<p id="532nAq"><strong>Upcoming Attractions</strong></p>
<p id="CSSpxi">Noelvi Marte was poised to be a big part of the Reds 2024 infield, but he has since been suspended 80 games for drug use. He’ll be back mid-season and pushing for a roster spot then. </p>
<p id="9iMd3d">Lyon Richardson is the only other prospect of note that would be expected to contribute much this season, and that hinges on him being able to get his erratic control under control. </p>
<p id="y43QS5"><strong>2024 Projections</strong></p>
<p id="F7ojdS">The projection systems aren’t super high on the Reds this year, with Fangraphs seeing a 79-83 record while PECOTA is a little lower at 77.4-84.6. </p>
<h3 id="1RpVF3"><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates</strong></h3>
<p id="xNNQOX">2023 Record: 76-86, 16 games behind first. </p>
<p id="QxAI5q">2024 games vs Blue Jays: May 31, June 1-2 in Toronto.</p>
<p id="xRnSFV"><strong>Notable Stars</strong></p>
<p id="1Oe6B1">Looking left is where you’ll find the star power on this team, with Gold Glove winning Ke’Bryan Hayes at 3B, the towering Oneil Cruz at SS and left fielder Bryan Reynolds forming a formidable trio at the top of the Pirates lineup. Pirate legend Andrew McCutchen looks to hit in the middle of this lineup, which isn’t as comforting to fans as it was 10 years ago, although he was still an above average bat this past season. Meanwhile, former top prospect Henry Davis looks poised to have a breakout season in his sophomore campaign behind the plate. </p>
<p id="mkw2Fo">The Pirates brought in lefties Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales to bring some veteran stability to a rotation that includes Mitch Keller and a bunch of question marks. In the bullpen they’ve added noted POS Aroldis Chapman to join David Bednar at the back of a decent bullpen. </p>
<p id="TXUCyv"><strong>Upcoming Attractions</strong></p>
<p id="RXMF15">Uber-prospect Paul Skenes is close to being ready to take the reins in the rotation, but not likely to start the year. Ditto for Quinn Priester and Mike Burrows. </p>
<p id="sdXJGn"><strong>2024 Projections</strong></p>
<p id="xEVJTz">Both Fangraphs and PECOTA have the Pirates at the bottom of the division, giving out projections of 77-85 and 71.8-90.2. </p>
<h3 id="VJGkOM"><strong>St. Louis Cardinals</strong></h3>
<p id="9YKEPQ">2023 Record: 71-91, 21 games behind first.</p>
<p id="EYBx7J">2024 games vs Blue Jays: September 13-15 in Toronto. </p>
<p id="fMBxK3"><strong>Notable Stars</strong></p>
<p id="lzwX2r">Despite having a strong group of players, the Cardinals fell flat last year. Many of those stars are back again this season, including Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras. Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar will open the season on the IL, giving the Cardinals several pre-arbitration players the opportunity to shine. </p>
<p id="5N20fN">On the pitching side, the Cardinals brought veterans Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray in to bolster the staff headed by Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Zack Thompson. In the bullpen, flamethrower Ryan Helsley anchors what should be a good bullpen. </p>
<p id="nV6L1M"><strong>Upcoming Attractions</strong></p>
<p id="gT7I38">With the injury to Edman, Masyn Winn has a chance to start the year as the team’s shortstop. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby provide some high upside arms behind the veteran rotation, and could find some time in the bullpen this year as well. </p>
<p id="9pktiB"><strong>2024 Projections</strong></p>
<p id="CCcJ19">Despite a disappointing 2023 season that saw them finish last, projections systems still buy into this team, giving them top billing in the NL Central with an 83-79 record from Fangraphs and an 84.4-77.6 record from PECOTA. </p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/18/24104434/know-your-enemy-nl-central-2024Erik T2024-03-17T16:06:21-04:002024-03-17T16:06:21-04:00Quick Recaps: Jays Win One, Tie One
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9cpcUeH599rxBsWyRE_JXBIakMo=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73213610/usa_today_22791045.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="cVLrKG">Two games, two recaps.</p>
<p id="zQtCTP"><strong>Twins 4 Blue Jays 9</strong></p>
<p id="ULsvNe">The one that was on Sportsnet out of Dunedin. The Jays gave us lots of offence in this one. </p>
<p id="DBU0Ei">Pitchers:</p>
<ul>
<li id="Laj95p">Yariel Rodriguez: Pitched 2 innings in his first spring game. 1 hit, a home run, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts. He looked pretty good. He has little pauses in his windup, keeping the batters from getting their timing. It sounds like he’ll start the season in Buffalo and build up to 5 innings before they consider bringing him to Toronto.</li>
<li id="RwVZWJ">Matt White: 3.1 innings, 2 hits, 3 earned, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts. 5.84. Had good and bad moments. He continues to throw hard, but is missing the zone too much. He threw 70 pitches in his 3.1. </li>
<li id="58csXL">Nate Pearson: 1.1, 1 hit, 3 strikeouts. 5.14. He impressed. I’d love him to make the team.</li>
<li id="isi7V2">Eric Pardinho: 2 clean innings, 2 k.</li>
</ul>
<p id="VAUnEK">Hitters:</p>
<ul>
<li id="CfCbkN">George Springer: 2 for 3, 3 RBI, home run (#3 on the spring). .357 on the spring.</li>
<li id="4wxb8x">Bo Bichette: 1 for 3. .405.</li>
<li id="Nwfdbd">Vladimir Guerrero: 2 for 3, RBI, k. .444. </li>
<li id="p4uWBb">Justin Turner: 0 for 3, k. .250.</li>
<li id="s39Q4d">Daulton Varsho: 0 for 3, k. .364.</li>
<li id="1nCMDs">Kevin Kiermaier: 2 for 2, 2 home runs (3 for the spring), 2 RBI, 1 walk. .214.</li>
<li id="Iz4OnH">IKF: 1 for 3, k. .321.</li>
<li id="DBQcah">Cavan Biggio: 0 for 2, walk, 2 k. .353. They dodged an up-and-in pitch that could have hit him in the head. </li>
<li id="qfjQZ6">Brian Serven: 0 for 2, walk, k. .278. I think he’s won the batter to fill Jansen’s spot. </li>
</ul>
<p id="4EWcMM"></p>
<p id="tOlhsE"><strong>Blue Jays 5 Phillies 5</strong></p>
<p id="uTgBzZ">A spring tie.</p>
<p id="ZNAS85">Pitchers:</p>
<ul>
<li id="GyZRfp">Jose Berrios: 4.2 innings, 6 hits, 1 earned, 3 unearned, 0 walks, 2 k. Three runs scored because of his error on a popup. He looked ok. 1.38.</li>
<li id="W2b5gC">Trevor Richards: 2.0, 2 hits, 1 earned, 0 walks, 4 strikeouts. 5.40. He had a nice outing. </li>
<li id="i3HkAt">Hayden Juenger: 2 innings, 1 hit, 3 k. 3.52. </li>
</ul>
<p id="LRZMk2">Batters:</p>
<ul>
<li id="o0hvGZ">Ernie Clement: 1 for 4, home runs (third), 1 k. .361.</li>
<li id="S9eh3W">Joey Votto: 1 for 1, home run, hit the top of the wall and went over. Apparently he rolled his ankle on bat in the dugout, but he’s ok.</li>
<li id="pPRCV4">Glenn Santiago: 0 for 1. He came out of the game after a swipe tag at first base on a runner coming down the line. It didn’t look good. I'm not sure what the injury is, but I’m guessing he won’t be playing for a while. </li>
<li id="N61aYV">Alejandro Kirk: 1 for 3, RBI, double. .379.</li>
<li id="MT7D0R">Daniel Vogobach: 2 for 3, double. .214.</li>
<li id="Ldfp0t">Davis Schneider: 0 for 3. .188. Clement is having a much better spring. I don’t know if Davis has a guaranteed spot on the roster, but I’d like to see him hit better.</li>
<li id="5HcO8g">Santiago Espinal: 0 for 3, k. .214. He’s also not hitting. He doesn’t have a spot on the active roster if I ran the club</li>
<li id="0Ep3Ju">Nathan Lukes: 0 for 3. .394. I’d like him to have a spot on the opening-day roster.</li>
<li id="x2Mx5H">Eduardo Escobar: 1 for 3, 2 k. .132. Speaking of guys who haven’t played themselves onto the roster. </li>
<li id="zxaGvj">Alan Roden: 1 for 1, walk. .250.</li>
</ul>
<p id="15604z"></p>
<p id="8NeM4q">So a win and a tie. Not too bad. The Jays are 11-11. </p>
<p id="7t2boK">The next game is Tuesday, with the Orioles coming to Dunedin. Chris Bassitt starts. We get a rare spring off-day tomorrow. </p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/17/24104159/quick-recaps-jays-win-one-tie-oneTom Dakers2024-03-17T12:49:00-04:002024-03-17T12:49:00-04:00Sunday GameThread
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/htLTUsbVRkI7saH0jiiE9XrboXk=/0x0:5848x3899/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73213341/usa_today_22758309.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have split-squad games today. </p> <p id="nNSxGW">I might miss the first inning of today’s games. We had a night last night, and I have to drive my wife to pick up her car. </p>
<p id="fsSDca">It is a split-squad game day—two games for the price of one. </p>
<p id="RqwZMZ">One is in Clearwater vs the Phillies. This game is on MLB TV, if you want to watch two games simultaneously. Joey Votto is playing in this one. Jose Berrios is the starting pitcher.</p>
<p id="8PtKt7"></p>
<div id="vB1nwX">
<div class="pane sports_data_widget lineup clearfix">
<h3>Today's Lineups</h3>
<div class="lineup">
<table cellspacing="0" class="zebra">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left">BLUE JAYS</th>
<th align="left">PHILLIES</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Ernie Clement - 2B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Kyle Schwarber - DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Joey Votto - 1B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Trea Turner - SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Alejandro Kirk - C</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">J.T. Realmuto - C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Daniel Vogelbach - DH</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Bryson Stott - 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Davis Schneider - LF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Whit Merrifield - LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Santiago Espinal - SS</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Jake Cave - 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Nathan Lukes - CF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Cristian Pache - CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Eduardo Escobar - 3B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Jordan Luplow - RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Alan Roden - RF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Rodolfo Castro - 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name"></td>
<td class="td-first td-name"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Jose Berrios - RHP</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Zack Wheeler - RHP</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p id="Mm8Qi0"></p>
<p id="6s8wL9">The other game is on Sportsnet from Dunedin. This one has Yariel Rodriguez starting and has many of the regulars playing. </p>
<p id="cmXM69"></p>
<div id="MkjLz3">
<div class="pane sports_data_widget lineup clearfix">
<h3>Today's Lineups</h3>
<div class="lineup">
<table cellspacing="0" class="zebra">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left">TWINS</th>
<th align="left">BLUE JAYS</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Edouard Julien - 2B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">George Springer - RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Brooks Lee - SS</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Bo Bichette - SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Alex Kirilloff - 1B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Vladimir Guerrero - 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Matt Wallner - LF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Justin Turner - DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Trevor Larnach - RF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Daulton Varsho - LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Jose Miranda - DH</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Kevin Kiermaier - CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Niko Goodrum - 3B</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Michael Helman - CF</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Cavan Biggio - 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Patrick Winkel - C</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Brian Serven - C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name"></td>
<td class="td-first td-name"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td-last td-name">Jorge Alcala - RHP</td>
<td class="td-first td-name">Yariel Rodriguez - RHP</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/17/24103912/sunday-gamethreadTom Dakers2024-03-17T11:56:33-04:002024-03-17T11:56:33-04:00Happy Birthday Cito Gaston, Scott Downs and Danny Ainge
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: ALCS-Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mC30HnBXDj4WnPGZUUCWNT8_zVQ=/0x0:3370x2247/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73213259/usa_today_8873464.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="yaP9aw"><strong>Cito Gaston</strong> turns 80 today. He doesn’t look it.</p>
<p id="aH8JJc">Cito, the player, came up through the <strong>Atlanta Braves </strong>system and was a September call-up in 1967. He shared the outfield with <strong>Hank Aaron</strong>.</p>
<p id="VSmN72">In 1968, the<strong> Padres</strong> picked him in the expansion draft. He had one terrific season there, hitting .318/.364/.543 with 29 homers and 93 RBI. The rest of his career was up and down, but he had an 11-year career and was an excellent defensive center fielder.</p>
<p id="g1dloR">Being a black player coming up in the ‘60s through the Atlanta Braves system, it must have been, at the very least, interesting. I’m sure he has some stories to tell. Between that and winning two World Series as manager of the Jays, there is a good book in his life story.</p>
<p id="biSckX">He has an 894-837 record as a manager, all with the <strong>Blue Jays</strong>. He led us to 5 first-place finishes and, of course, 2 World Series wins. Interestingly, he only had 26 ejections in his managerial career. I remember him saying he was more valuable to the team if he could stay on the bench instead of watching from the clubhouse. From memory, the rare time they ejected him was in an attempt to keep one of his players in the game.</p>
<p id="QY4stp">Cito had strengths and weaknesses as a manager. He let his players play. He didn’t try to impress us with managerial moves. He didn’t like the bunt. And, I was told, at least in his second time around with the Jays, that he didn’t have a hit-and-run sign. Cito picked out the guys he liked and let them play.</p>
<p id="plb1NI">I like that.</p>
<p id="55WzKY">In his first stint as manager, he preferred the veteran players. But, sometimes, even after they were no longer good baseball players, he was more willing to use younger guys in his second time with the team.</p>
<p id="Z7nix9">He liked guys to pull the ball. I was surprised when he convinced <strong>John McDonald</strong> to go to the all-pull style all the time. John did get a few homers, but pitchers seemed to catch on after a bit, and he ended up pulling balls on the ground a lot.</p>
<p id="uZuSmD">Cito is number 75 on the all-time win list for MLB managers. And, of course, number one among Jays’ managers.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="JXnMg2">
<p id="UQdLHe"><strong>Scott Downs</strong> turns 48 today. He was one of my favourites.</p>
<p id="KnBxoK">The <strong>Cubs </strong>drafted downs in the 3rd round of the 1997 draft. He made it to the majors with the Cubs in 2000, though he was traded to the <strong>Twins </strong>and back before making it. Finally, in May of 2000, the Cubs traded him to the <strong>Expos </strong>for <strong>Rondell White</strong>. Most of Scott’s time with the Expos was spent recovering from 2 Tommy John surgeries.</p>
<p id="Eto4Bo">He signed with the Jays before the 2005 season.</p>
<p id="tsPY1i">In 2005, he made 13 starts and 13 relief appearances, finishing with a 4-3 record and a 4.31 ERA for the Jays. In 2006, he was moved to the pen full-time except for five spot starts. In 59 games, he was 6-2, had 1 save, and had a 4.09 ERA.</p>
<p id="XJoYzn">In 2007, he became a valuable pitcher, pitching in 81 games as a one-out lefty. He had a 4-2 record with a 2.17 ERA. <strong>John Gibbons</strong> would have used him every game, and he held up to the workload very well.</p>
<p id="05XJHa">2008, he worked his way into the setup role. Cito used him in every game where we were ahead and often behind. He pitched multiple innings several times and had one of the best seasons we’ve ever had, from a setup man until he twisted an ankle late in the season. He likely should have been allowed to rest the ankle longer, but you can’t blame Cito for wanting to keep using him. He had been a sure thing every time out until then.</p>
<p id="95oKHy">In 2009, he and <strong>Jason Frasor</strong> shared a closer role. Downs had another excellent season, with a 3.09 ERA in 48 games. In 2010, he was back in the setup man spot (the Jays signed <strong>Kevin Gregg</strong> before the season). Scott had a 2.64 ERA in 67 games.</p>
<p id="BZOs5H">After the 2010 season, he signed with the <strong>Angels</strong>. From there, he bounced around to the Braves, <strong>White Sox</strong>, <strong>Royals</strong>, and <strong>Cleveland</strong>.</p>
<p id="FGG0Pc">He played for 13 seasons, pitching in 619 games and making 50 starts. He had a 3.56 ERA and 27 saves. He was with the Jays for six seasons, playing 347 games and having a 3.14 ERA.</p>
<p id="nGIfbI">Downs was affectionately nicknamed Snakeface. People told Mike Wilner, on Jays’ Talk, that Downs wasn’t intimidating enough on the mound, so Wilner said that Downs had gotten a snake tattoo on his face to make him scarier.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="umFTz0">
<p id="dVBxzy">Former Blue Jay great <strong>Danny Ainge</strong> turns 64 today. He wasn’t great on the baseball diamond, but he cleaned up in team pickup basketball games. After three seasons and a .220/.264/.269 batting line, he left baseball to play for the Boston Celtics, a good move. He was a far better basketball player than baseball. He won two NBA Championships as a Celtics player and another as the Executive Director of Basketball Operations.</p>
<p id="U8OAEc">Happy Birthday to all three. I hope they each have a great day.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="rzYxEA">
<p id="fAReaU">Also, having birthdays:</p>
<p id="IavrbK"><strong>Raul Chavez </strong>turns 50 today. Chavez was a backup catcher who spent the last season of his 11-year career with the Blue Jays in 2009, backing up Rod Barajas. He hit .258/.285/.346 with 2 home runs.</p>
<p id="WrICSm"><strong>Scott Brow </strong>turns 54. Brow was a Jays 7th-round draft pick in 1990. He made it to the Jays in 1993 (earning a World Series ring), making 3 starts and 3 relief appearances. He came out of the pen 18 times in 1994 and got into 18 more games in 1996. He made 42 appearances for the Jays and had a 5.78 ERA with 2 saves.</p>
<p id="lRDwo7"><strong>Cesar Valdez</strong> turns 38 today. He made 3 starts and 4 relief appearances in 2017, with a 6.75 ERA. He also played for the Diamondbacks, A’s, and Orioles, playing in 68 games over 4 years.</p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/17/24103895/happy-birthday-cito-gaston-scott-downs-and-danny-aingeTom Dakers2024-03-16T18:15:00-04:002024-03-16T18:15:00-04:002024 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 33-36
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<img alt="Top 40 Prospects" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SAhKPPl7_T9psvvusJx94YK6v4A=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73212304/top40.0.jpg" />
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<p>Four arms looking to reach the upper levels of the system in 2024</p> <p id="25KT6j">The next segment of the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> Top 40 features a collection of arms in the lower minors with varied styles and strengths.</p>
<p id="EWEHzn">2024: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23626867/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects">Full List and Index</a> | 33-36 | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/15/24079349/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-37-40">37-40</a></p>
<p id="ruzwA4">2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23626867/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects">Full List and Index</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/27/23364813/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-1-4">1-4</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/24/23580856/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-5-8">5-8</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/22/23591748/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-9-12">9-12</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/20/23597715/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-13-16">13-16</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/18/23609708/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-17-20">17-20</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/16/23615718/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-21-24">21-24</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/14/23615976/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-25-28">25-28</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/11/23607542/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-29-32">29-32</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/8/23324788/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-33-36">33-36</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/6/23614770/2023-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-37-40">37-40</a></p>
<p id="PdLmF3">Beyond the Top 40: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/1/23324730/beyond-the-2023-top-40-blue-jays-prosects-just-missed-list">Just Missed</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/3/25/23303372/beyond-the-2023-top-40-top-five-older-blue-jays-prospects">Top 5 Older</a> | Pref Lists: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/12/4079356/beyond-the-2023-top-40-matt-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">Matt</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/23/23311450/beyond-the-2023-top-40-tom-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">Tom</a></p>
<h4 id="t5Ier4">36. Lazaro Estrada, RHP, age 25 in 2024 (DOB: 4/24/1999), grade: 35, 2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/12/4079356/beyond-the-2023-top-40-matt-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">Matt’s pref list</a>
</h4>
<p id="rBVKIG">Estrada made a strong debut after signing out of Cuba as a 19 year old back in 2019, racking up 87 strikeouts to 12 walks in 70 innings. Progress stalled there for a long time, though. His 2019 season was limited to 47 innings due to injuries, the minor leagues were cancelled in 2020, and Tommy John surgery ate up most of his 2021 and 2022. </p>
<p id="pHlTU8">The soon-to-be-25 year old was back in Dunedin last year for his third go round, and finally managed to put together a healthy season, throwing 76.1 innings across 28 appearances. He began in the bullpen, but as his strength returned he worked his way into the rotation and succeeded there, striking out 49 of 154 batters while walking 15 and recording a 2.54 ERA from July on. </p>
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<img alt="Lazaro Estrada 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hAByksShCluSOaEUDzIOVEiLlgQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25338960/Lazaro_Estrada_2024.png">
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<p id="PDqYMo">There are three pitches in Estrada’s arsenal. The fastball is a four seamer that’s not hard, sitting 91-94, but has nice vertical ride and horizontal run. His changeup is rarely used and doesn’t have impressive shape, but it does sit 10mph off his fastball and can get some chases. In the past, his breaking ball has been the star of his arsenal. Before 2023, it was a curveball that he could occasionally snap off with spin rates up to an elite 3,400 RPM. This year the curve was replaced with a slow slider. He still spins it at around 2,700 RPM, which would be in about the 90th percentile in MLB, but in a couple of looks this year the movement wasn’t as impressive as that would suggest. Estrada’s command is solid and seems likely to end up average. </p>
<p id="6fFmoG">Estrada profiles mostly as a reliever, with only one pitch that looks like it has the potential to be a difference maker in MLB and a spotty track record of durability, but he’s performed so far and the breaking ball bears watching. At 25 and rule 5 eligible, he’ll need to move this year to have a hope of reaching Toronto.</p>
<h4 id="tJYH63">35. Ryan Jennings, RHP, age 24/25 (DOB: 6/23/1999), grade: 35, 2023: unranked</h4>
<p id="TN3tiS">At Louisiana Tech, Jennings began his career as a starter before moving to the bullpen later in his draft year. He touched 99-mph in that role, which popped him up draft boards and prompted the Jays to grab him in the fourth round of 2022.</p>
<p id="9dHTss">Jennings pitched in A ball after being drafted and returned there in early 2023 before a June promotion to Vancouver. He made just two appearances there before being shut down with an injury that cost him three months. He returned for a two inning cameo in September and made a couple of appearances in major league spring training this year.</p>
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<img alt="Ryan Jennings 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l6QaweY0D1-52UjH-dPwZLp1CvI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25338961/Ryan_Jennings_2024.png">
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<p id="acNeUo">Jennings has pitched in a hybrid role for the Jays, mixing short outings with starts that last 4+ innings. His velocity has trended down since signing, and last summer he was mostly 92-94 and occasional 96s, with heavy arm side run and some sink. He seems to tinker with his breaking ball, which can be anything from an 82mph curve to an 88mph cutter. The best version, which he’s been throwing this spring, is a mid 80s slider with nice vertical depth that could be a weapon. He also had a changeup, but it’s a distant third pitch. Although his walk totals as a pro haven’t been awful, Jennings’ command likely isn’t good enough to start as he moves up the ladder.</p>
<p id="oSAklB">As he was in 2023, Jennings looks pretty generic. He’s on the list because he’s demonstrated the potential for two pitches that could be real weapons in a major league bullpen, but to get there he’ll have to stay healthy and ideally recover some of his lost velocity. </p>
<h4 id="Pi6dgR">34. Connor O’Halloran, LHP, age 21 (DOB: 9/1/2002), grade: 35, 2023: college junior</h4>
<p id="Za3pT7">O’Halloran was a workhorse his sophomore and junior years for Michigan, racking up a Big Ten leading 196 combined innings. While the results weren’t overwhelming, he struck out more than a batter an inning and limited walks, especially in 2023. It was enough to get him picked in the fifth round for a slightly under slot bonus. </p>
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<img alt="Connor O’Halloran 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VGm4kZticrJkvBLGTnS7RwZ8qPQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25338962/Connor_O_Halloran_2024.png">
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<p id="HUahE1">It’s not overpowering stuff, although all three of O’Halloran’s pitches show some potential. His fastball is mostly 89-91, touching 94, with some vertical ride out of a lower slot that might help it play up. His slider records big spin numbers and is his out pitch, the only one of the three that projects above MLB average. He also mixes in a change that he has some feel for but which requires further development. His command of all three is above average.</p>
<p id="rocuyD">It’s not a thrilling profile, but O’Halloran has a track record against solid competition and all the ingredients are there for a back end starter. If pro development can add a tick to his fastball there might be a little more than that.</p>
<h4 id="S5La8P">33. Rafael Sanchez, RHP, age 24 (DOB: 8/22/1999), grade: 35, 2023: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2023/4/12/4079356/beyond-the-2023-top-40-matt-pref-list-blue-jays-prospects">Matt’s pref list</a>
</h4>
<p id="9I0Zil">Signed out of Cuba in the winter of 2022, Sanchez has just completed his second American pro season. His first was mostly spent at the Dominican complex, with a brief cameo in Florida at the end of the year. He picked back up with A Dunedin last spring before earning a promotion to A+ Vancouver in May.</p>
<p id="ILyKDB">It was a solid overall season. Sanchez made a full 23 starts and logged 114 innings, second in the Jays’ system. He dominated the FSL, recording 43 Ks in 35.2 innings, and while the results backed up a bit in the Northwest League, his 76:23 K:BB ratio was still good although a .371 BABIP against ballooned his ERA over 5.00.</p>
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<img alt="Rafael Sanchez 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PUmPWa9ClmghmvS340FeCNJH9qo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25338963/Rafael_Sanchez_2024.png">
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<p id="Dmia6G">Sanchez uses three pitches. His fastball sits between 91 and 94, with a little bit of life. It’s a fringe average pitch and he actually throws it less than his changeup. The cambio comes in around 86, lacking velocity separation from his fastball but packing plus depth that produces the bulk of his swings and misses. His breaking ball varies from 82-87, and StatCast divides it into a slider and a cutter. Having watched, I suspect it’s one pitch that he sometimes executes better than others. Either way it’s not great, with middling movement. Sanches hits his spots, consistently limiting walks, and his command should be average or better.</p>
<p id="l2R9UW">Like O’Halloran and Estrada behind him, Sanchez has just one pitch that looks like it could make an impact in the majors, but he also has the command to start and like O’Halloran his track record of taking the mound once a week is strong. He has the potential to become a back end starter if he can add a tick to the heater and/or find a more distinctive breaking ball. He’ll head into the upper minors this year and we’ll learn more about how his stuff fares against advanced hitters.</p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2024/3/16/24087210/2024-bluebird-banter-top-40-blue-jays-prospects-33-36Tom__M