Bluebird Banter - 2017 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospect IndexRoster moves R Us.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47723/bluebird-fv.png2017-02-18T15:03:37-05:00http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/rss/stream/142339892017-02-18T15:03:37-05:002017-02-18T15:03:37-05:00Beyond the Top 40: Tom's 2017 Just Missed List
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<p id="Pd1d4Y">Matt put up his ‘<a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/17/14499020/beyond-the-top-40-matts-2017-just-missed-list#comments">just missed list</a>’ on Friday, so it is my turn. Just for the record, I had Osman Gutierrez at the bottom of my list too. He seems to be the right kind of player for the bottom of a 40-man prospect list, not really a prospect yet, but a good season and he would be. </p>
<p id="Qpg9UL">I like doing the just missed lists. It’s fun to look at the guys we disagreed about and I like to use the posts to check on guys that kind of interest me for what ever reason.</p>
<p id="Yg5Q29">And Matt, silly person he is, gave us a review of his ‘just missed out’ lists of the past, so I really ought to do the same. </p>
<p id="96j7Jo"><a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/22/11093740/beyond-the-top-40-toms-just-missed-out-list">Last year my list</a> was Yennsy Diaz, Jesus Severino, the previously mentioned Osman Gutierrez, Hansel Rodriguez, L.B. Dantzler and Matt Dean. </p>
<ul>
<li id="O6UDoQ">Diaz jumped on to the main list this year, all the way up to #24, so I’m kind of happy with that one. </li>
<li id="6rtowD">Severino is the kind of guy I tend to overvalue, a middle infielder with a good bat, at a low level. In 2016, he didn’t show that bat, hitting .213/.320/.278 at Bluefield. He’s young, just 19, so there is the chance he’ll return to the edge of prospect status, but I doubt it. </li>
<li id="4fky3c">Rodriguez was traded to the <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> in return for Melvin Upton. Before the trade, he was doing pretty good for Bluefield, 3.06 ERA in 6 starts. After, not so good, 6.97 in 6 starts. </li>
<li id="wtkVxQ">Dantzler and Dean were both guys that were supposed to find some power as they matured. Neither did, Dean (24) hit .215/.294/.313 with 5 homers in New Hampshire. Dantzler .235/.296/.301 with 1 homer in Dunedin. </li>
</ul>
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<p id="Ekh6a6"><a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/2/24/8101925/the-2015-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-toms-just-miss-out-list">In 2015 I had</a> Griffin Murphy, Jesus Tinoco, Dantzler again, Jeremy Gabryszwski, <span>Ryan Schimpf</span>/Jon Berti and Casey Lawrence. </p>
<ul>
<li id="zz0vE6">Murphy was released in November.</li>
<li id="EqqSbh">Tinoco was part of the trade for Tulowitzki. He had a rough year in A ball this year.</li>
<li id="XrKS9I">Gabryszwski split time between New Hampshire and Dunedin. He made 28 starts, had a 4.34 ERA, with 24 walks and 100 strikeouts in 151 innings. </li>
<li id="TivZrd">Schimpf is in the Padres system, after being let go by the Jays. Berti had an ok year, hitting .254/.358/.364, with 29 steals, for the Fisher Cats. </li>
<li id="oom1Wl">Lawrence split time between NH and Buffalo. He had a 4.17 ERA in 28 starts, 37 walks and 108 strikeouts in. He’s 29, and has never been a prospect, but he has done well for an undrafted player. </li>
</ul>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="ApGqdu">
<p id="1kyWwS">Let’s skip a few years, as this post is getting long. <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/3/7/2853205/top-50-blue-jay-prospects-toms-just-missed-out-list">Back in 2012,</a> my just missed list was: <span>Chad Beck</span>, Casey Lawrence (I always was interested in him), <span>Danny Farquhar</span>, <span>Gustavo Pierre</span>, <span>Alan Farina</span> and <span>Jonathan Diaz</span>.</p>
<ul>
<li id="iKJsxI">Farquhar is the star of the group. During the 2012 season, the Jays DFAed him and he was lost on waiver to the A’s, then the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> took him off waviers from the A’s. He was traded to the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> (for Ichiro), and had 3 seasons with them. Before last year he was traded to the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a>. Career he has a 3.81 ERA with 18 saves in 193 games.</li>
<li id="foUm46">Chad Beck had a moment of being a sleeper prospect. Pete Rose, of all people, talked him up. He threw hard, could hit 96. He had a couple of cups of coffee with the Jays, in 2011 and 2012. In total a 5.50 ERA in 17 games, 18 innings. He was pitching in Independent ball last I saw. </li>
<li id="2mu3Nr">Diaz is an all glove, no hit infielder. He’s had 65 PA in the majors. Jays signed him as a minor league free agent this winter. </li>
<li id="lXo8AF">Pierre was a possible ‘shortstop of the future’ for awhile, but neither his bat nor his glove came around. He played in the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> system last year.</li>
<li id="9Kigqn">Farina was a reliever who put up good ERAs in the minors. He got tons of strikeouts 237 in 206 minor league innings, but he only made it up to Double A. </li>
</ul>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="rdopV4">
<p id="LxBtd6"><a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2010/12/19/1884467/you-gave-me-the-word-i-finally-heard-top-40-blue-jay-prospects-toms">In 2011 my list</a> was <span>Nestor Molina</span>, <span>Stephen McQuail</span>, Chuck Huggins, <span>Lance Durham</span>, Oliver Dominguez, <span>Ryan Schimpf</span>, Misaul Diaz, Gabriel Cenas, <span>Santiago Nessy</span> and Deivy Estrada. Yeah, a really long list. And most of the names have long been forgotten.</p>
<ul>
<li id="oe7lnM">Molina was a good looking prospect. He was traded to the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a> for <span>Sergio Santos</span> and some of us were pissed off about the trade. He never did make it to the majors. He signed a minor league deal with the <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> this winter.</li>
<li id="Mhkh2g">Schimpf was mentioned above, Cenas was released by the Jays last year, most of the others are out of baseball now.</li>
</ul>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="hFcUCt">
<p id="2GjDhJ">My just missed list this year:</p>
<p id="ODjMyr"><strong>Yorman Rodriguez</strong> was a free agent signing out of Venezuela. He’s just 19. 2016 was his second season in the Jays system. He split time between catcher and first base, hitting .318/.379/.438, with 14 stolen bases (caught 3 times) splitting time between the DOSL and the GCL. If he can stay a catcher, his bat looks looks really good, but then there are a lot of steps between GCL and the majors. </p>
<p id="LXY964"><strong>Alvaro Galindo </strong>is another international free agent signing, this time out of Columbia. He’s just 18, a right-handed pitcher, again in his second season in the Jays system. He was terrific in the DOSL, had an 8-0 record, with a 0.62 ERA, in 9 games, 43.1 innings. He allowed 29 hits, 12 walks and 46 strikeouts. He didn’t fair as well when moved up to the GCL, 6.23 ERA in 21 innings, 12 walk, 13 strikeouts. Kind of the usual, low 90’s fastball, working on curve and change. </p>
<p id="vQ0z7L"><strong>Gunnar Heidt </strong>is 24, he played all the middle infield spots. Splitting time between Lansing and Dunedin last year, he hit .263/.345/.419, with 9 home runs, 22 steals, 43 walks and 101 strikeouts. At 24, he’d have to move up a level or two this year to make our prospect list this year. He was our 13th round draft pick, in 2014, dropping a couple of rounds because of a broken hand.</p>
<p id="yHPg2R"><strong>Tim Mayza </strong>rates a mention mostly because he’s a left-handed pitcher, who can throw fairly hard (mid-90’s). He’s been a reliever in our minor league system. He started last year in Dunedin, had a 1.66 ERA in 28 games, 48.2 innings (I really do appreciate minor league relievers pitching 2+ innings an appearance, I wish we could do that with major league relievers). He had 15 walks and 52 strikeouts. Moved up to New Hampshire, he didn’t do as well, but remember small sample size and all, 4.11 ERA, in 15.1 innings, 15 walks (ouch), 13 strikeouts. He’s 25 now. Lefty relievers can be worth their weight in gold, and can take a little longer to mature, so it’s worth keeping an eye on him. </p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/18/14653908/beyond-the-top-40-toms-2017-just-missed-listTom Dakers2017-02-17T08:00:01-05:002017-02-17T08:00:01-05:00Beyond the Top 40: Matt's 2017 Just Missed List
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<p>Sticking with the theme of going beyond the BB Top 40 list, having covered some interesting players in the organization who missed the age cutoff, it's time to take the annual look at some who just missed. A couple of these were in my personal top 40, the rest right on the fringe. Tom will post his own just missed at some point soon. One things to note is I didn't include any players who haven't played above the GCL level (complex ball), even though they have higher upsides and would be good candidates to jump up future lists. There's multiple interesting candidates, but no one who really stands out.</p>
<p>Before getting to this year's names, I've done just missed lists for the last two years, so let's start with a little accountability and look quickly at how those turned out.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/3/3/8130025/2015-bluebird-banter-top-prospects-mjwws-just-missed-out-list">I </a>really like<a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/3/3/8130025/2015-bluebird-banter-top-prospects-mjwws-just-missed-out-list"> my picks from 2015</a>. <span>Jimmy Cordero</span> had a very good 2015, starting in Dunedin and earning a promotion to New Hampshire before being traded in the <span>Ben Revere</span> deal. Justin Shafer is a ground ball machine, the numbers don't look good but I'd like to see what he can be as a reliever. <span>Roemon Fields</span> has been as high as Buffalo. Gunnar Heidt has an awful 2015, rebounded with a decent 2016. But the major standout was Conner Greene, who broke out and shot way up the rankings.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/26/11119886/beyond-the-top-40-matts-just-missed-out-list">2016 on the other hand</a> is not looking so great. John La Prise underwhelmed at the plate compared to what I was hoping for. Alonzo Gonzalez did make it to AA, but still is pretty inconsistent. Ryan Hissey didn't distinguish himself in Lansing. John Stilson might have had the best year on the list, but injuries may have taken too much of a toll. And Denis Diaz simply couldn't throw strikes.</p>
<p><b>Kyle Weatherly, LHP, age 22 (DOB: 10/3/1994)</b></p>
<p>Weatherly was drafted in the 8th round last June, signed for an above slot $250,000 and actually ranked in MLB Pipeline's Top 200 draft prospects. Consequently, I almost feel like it's cheating to have him on here, but he was the highest placed on my list (32nd) to not make the top 40.</p>
<p>Weatherly's first few appearances for Bluefield were rough, but then he settled in very nicely, working with a fastball in the low-90s, touching the mid-90s. Overall, he pitched to a 4.07 ERA (under 2.00 excluding his first four appearances) with 33 strikeouts against 9 walks. He did miss the last couple weeks with an injury, which hopefully was either minor or precautionary. Otherwise, I expect he'll move up to Lansing.</p>
<p><b>Osman Gutierrez, RHP, age 22 (DOB:12/15/1994)</b></p>
<p>If this series was the Top 41 rather than Top 40, Gutierrez would have made it as he was the first man out, and landing towards the backend of my own list. He put a nice season statistically for Bluefield, posting a 3.88 ERA with 66 strikeouts against 21 walks in 65 innings. The downside is that having spent three years in the Dominican, he's already 22 without having made it to full season ball, and 21 is relatively advanced age for rookie ball. He should move up to Lansing for 2017, or I should say has to to be a legitimate prospect.</p>
<p><b>Tom Robson, RHP, age 23 (DOB: 6/27/1993)</b></p>
<p>Robson's was progressing very promisingly until his career was sidetracked by Tommy John surgery three years ago, and while his velocity has comeback, unfortunately his command has not been the same. His 2016 started in Dunedin, where he simply could not throw strikes, and made another three rough starts for Lansing before being moved to the pen.</p>
<p>He still struggled out of the pen as a multi-inning reliever, with a 6.64 ERA in 42 innings. Given those numbers, saying he was inconsistent is actually a good thing, as he showed flashes of dominance. He consistently ran his fastball into the upper 90s, so if he can regain some command over it, that's a real weapon. That's basically what puts him here.</p>
<p><b>Rodrigo Orozco, RHP, age 22 on Opening Day (DOB:4/2/1995)</b></p>
<p>Orozco had some helium after a nice season in 2015 for Bluefield which landed him all the way up at 19 on last year's list. 2016 did not go well in Vancouver, as he posted a .241/.348/.289 batting line. Basically, he hit the ball with almost no authority, but the one silver lining is he maintained a very low strikeout rate. This a bet on a rebound, though at 22 on opening day, the clock is ticking a little bit.</p>
<p><b>Chris Hall, RHP, age 23 (DOB:1/27/1994)</b></p>
<p>Hall was drafted last year in the 14th round out of Elon University. He had a decent debut for Bluefield, with a 2.40 ERA for Bluefield (21 K against 8 walks in 30 innings), pitching primarily with a fastball up to 93-94, with a slider in the low/mid 80s. What's interesting about him is that he's relatively new to pitching as a converted catcher, which <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/move-mound-pays-off-elon-closer">Baseball America detailed in a profile here</a>.</p>
<p><b>Keep an eye on</b>: LHP Brayden Bouchey. The 2016 33rd rounder from BC tops out in the high 80s, but was effective and sometimes dominating in multi-inning stints for Bluefield. I'm interested to see if he is assigned to Lansing, and how that might translate.</p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/17/14499020/beyond-the-top-40-matts-2017-just-missed-listMatt W2017-02-16T08:00:01-05:002017-02-16T08:00:01-05:00Beyond the Top 40: 2017 Top 5 Older Prospects
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<p>With the Top 40 Prospect list now complete, it's time to look a little the top 40. As Tom mentioned at the outset, eligibility for the BBB list is based not just on retaining rookie eligibility, but also on an age screen. 2017 must be no more than a player's age-25 season, that is, player must be 25 or under on June 30, 2017 (meaning born after June 30, 1991).</p>
<p>That's not to say that players who were eliminated by the age cutoff don't have any value. Indeed, <span>Joe Biagini</span> was in that position last year, and emerged as a valuable reliever (despite not placing on this list in 2016). Rather, it reflects the fact with younger players, the overriding element is projecting future abilities, whereas by the time a player is 25 or 26 that's not so much the case. Hence, a separate of prospects who missed the age cutoff but who could factor in as major league contributors.</p>
<p><b>1. <span>Danny Barnes</span>, RHP, age 27 (DOB: 10/21/1989)</b></p>
<p>2017 was finally the breakthrough year for <span>Barnes</span>, after injuries sidetracked his path to the big leagues a few years ago. Despite initially repeating New Hampshire to start, Barnes carved up AA hitters and then AAA hitters for a couple months each to earn the call to the big leagues in August. There he posted a solid 3.95 ERA in 13.2 innings, with 14 strikeouts against 5 walks.</p>
<p>Barnes features a low-90s fastball with a change-up that can be a legitimate secondary weapon to get swings and misses and keep batters off his fastball, as well as a serviceable slider. While his initial MLB stint was encouraging, he give up a fair bit of hard contact, so he does have some work to do to refine his mix and make adjustments. All told, I like his chance to be a solid middle reliever with potential for more depending how good his command ends up.</p>
<p><b>2. <span>Carlos Ramirez</span>, RHP, age 25 (DOB: 4/24/1991)</b></p>
<p>Ramirez was signed in 2009 as an infielder, topping out at Lansing in 2013-14 as he simply didn't hit. Instead, he moved to the mound to see if his strong arm could be parlayed into something, and now is showing real potential. Given that he hasn't been a full-time pitcher for three years, there's more room to project further improvement than most players his age.</p>
<p>Ramirez has two significant pitches, a fastball that he can get into the mid-90s, but last year was more frequently 92-93 MPH, as well as a slider which flashes potential as a swing and miss secondary. His command/control is a work in progress, as he'll sometimes just lose the zone, and he missed a couple months in 2016. Nonetheless, the results were pretty good, with a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings, with a strikeout an inning and a reduced walk rate. He should move up to New Hampshire's pen in 2017, and this will be a pivotal year for Ramirez.</p>
<p><b>3. <span>Matt Dermody</span> and <span>Chad Girodo</span>, LHPs, both age 26</b></p>
<p>I'm cheating a little here by packaging these two as one entry, but they both debuted in 2016 and profile as lefty at the backend of a bullpen. Outrighted yesterday, the sidearming Girodo has been hell on lefties all the way up the ladder, and profiles as a pure LOOGY. Despite a bumpy MLB debut, he was actually good against the 20 lefties he faced, holding them to a .211/.250/.263 line. Just ignore the three HR and .773 SLG to righties. I still think he could be a useful MLB reliever.</p>
<p>Dermody first drew notice with a stellar 2013 in Vancouver in his draft year, with 50 strikeouts against 4 walks in 40.2 innings, perhaps a guy who could move quickly as a reliever. But he muddled through 2014-15 as a jack of all trades spot starter/long reliever, and after being re-assigned to Dunedin to start 2016 it didn't appear the Jays had big plan for him. But he blossomed in a one inning relief role, dominating high-A and AA with decent results in Buffalo that earned him a September call-up. Where exactly things go from here is less clear, and a crunch of relievers could mean he starts 2017 in New Hampshire's pen.</p>
<p><b>4. <span>Blake McFarland</span>, RHP, age 29 (DOB: 2/2/1988)</b></p>
<p>Last year's #1, McFarland ending up missing the entire year after shoulder surgery. That was a particularly tough break considering he had been added to the 40-man and was on the cusp of the big leagues. If he can get to where he was before, he remains an interesting bullpen possibility.</p>
<p>For more, see <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/19/11058960/beyond-the-top-40-2016-bluebird-banter-top-5-older-prospects">last year's entry.</a></p>
<p><b>5. Jason Leblebijian, IF, age 25 (DOB: 5/13/1991)</b></p>
<p>Leblebijian has had an interesting career arc since being a 25th round draft pick in 2012, as he spent time in low-A in each of his first four pro seasons, but was unable to escape the gravity of Lansing until the second half of 2015 whereupon he struggled in Dunedin. However, he put himself on the map in 2016, with a strong first half in Dunedin (.295/.362/.420) and equally strong second half in AA (.293/.359/.448).</p>
<p>The caveat is that this was accomplished very high BABIPs (~.390 for the whole season), with elevated strikeouts rates of around 26%. Still, the bar for utility infielders is not that high, and like #5 last year Jon Berti could figure in</p>
<p><b>Sleeper</b>: RHP Chris Rowley. Having completed his military service, Rowley went directly to high-A despite only pitching in the GCL after signing in 2013. Impressively, he more than held his own with a 3.49 ERA working both in the rotation and out of the pen. Granted, he doesn't throw hard, the peripherals don't stand out, and the Jays didn't bother protecting him in the AAA Rule 5...but let's call it a gut feel and see how he does in AA.</p>
<p><b>Others of Note</b>: RHP <span>Wil Browning</span>, RHP <span>Chris Smith</span>, RHP <span>Taylor Cole</span>, RHP <span>John Stilson</span>, IF Jon Berti, OF <span>Roemon Fields</span></p>
<p><b>Players who will hit the age cutoff next year:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Top 40: RHP <span>Glenn Sparkman</span>, 1B Ryan McBroom, OF J.D. (Jonathan) Davis</span></li>
<li><span>Other: LHP Tim Mayza, LHP Alonzo Gonzalez, RHP Dusty Isaacs, IF <span>Shane Opitz</span><span> </span> </span></li>
</ul>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/16/14433044/beyond-the-top-40-2017-top-5-older-prospectsMatt W2017-02-14T09:55:24-05:002017-02-14T09:55:24-05:002017 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 1-3
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<p>A repeat number one, a surging right-handed hurler and a franchise cornerstone all crack 2017’s top 3 prospects. </p> <p id="fkQeF5">For all previous (and future) entries in the Top 40 prospect series, see the <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index">2017 Top 40 Prospect Index. </a></p>
<p id="YeA8XZ">We had a tie vote for the top spot. </p>
<p id="HjbquH"><strong>3. Sean Reid-Foley, age 21 (DOB August 30th, 1995), RHP, last year: #4</strong></p>
<p id="dHI3NC">It’s been a while since Sean Reid-Foley began unknowingly auditioning for the role of Nuke LaLoosh in the inevitable remake of the great “Bull Durham,” but here he is today; a top three prospect with the chance to be a top arm on the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> in the not too distant future. </p>
<p id="X141Hn">Drafted in the second round of the 2014 MLB first-year player draft, Reid-Foley has always been known for his swing-and-miss potential but with that came a lack of command that also saw him providing free passes at a far too frequent rate. Even if you thought his BB/9 ratio of 4.0 in 2014 was a fluke, his 2015 season provided only more worries to the Blue Jays and its fans as it increased to 6.3 BB/9 when given the chance to pitch in Lansing (A) and Dunedin (A+) over the course of the season. </p>
<p id="5zRrUC">2016 represented a turning of the corner for the tattooed man (<a href="http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/6/9/lott-sean-reid-foley-has-big-league-stuff-but-remains-a-work-in-progress">he has 26 tattoos actually)</a> as he saw basically every quantifiable measure move in the positive direction during his time in Lansing and Dunedin. Starting in Lansing, Reid-Foley was asked to work on finding a more repeatable delivery that would allow him to throw more first pitch strikes with fewer pitches per inning, which would inherently allow him to pitch deeper into ball games. He did just that as he nearly cut his walk rate in half from the season before (6.3 in 2015 to 3.4 in Lansing) before earning the promotion to Dunedin once again. </p>
<p id="nN0FP7">There he took his progress a step further, recording a 2.67 ERA with a K/9 of 11.1 and a BB/9 of 2.5—easily his best showing of any level across his brief minor league career. </p>
<p id="cOtC2n">Most of his 2016 success can be attributed to several mechanical adjustments that have allowed his delivery to become more repeatable, as the minor league coaching staff has instructed, but has come at some cost in terms of his velocity on his four-seam fastball. He still throws his fastball comfortably in the 92-94 mph range, with the ability to touch 97 mph, so the drop in velocity should be considered as more of a move in the maturation phase than a decline in arm health or overall progression. </p>
<p id="MoTAkh">With secondary offerings like his slider and curveball (both considered plus pitches) and a changeup that he’s still fine tuning, Reid-Foley has all the weapons needed to become a front of the rotation type starter (<a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/1/26/14399378/three-blue-jays-in-keith-laws-top-100-mlb-prospects">Keith Law has him projected to be a number 2). </a> </p>
<p id="6OHxLU">That said, these are merely projections. Sean will likely have to demonstrate in Dunedin that he can continue to repeat his delivery before earning the chance to do the same in New Hampshire with the outside possibility of a promotion to Toronto in the fall. Who knows, with a good year, and several Blue Jays arms leaving the rotation in 2018, Reid-Foley just may be here sooner than you think. </p>
<p id="5jd96a"><strong>1-tie</strong><strong>. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., age 17 (DOB March 16, 1999), 3B (?), Last year: 5</strong></p>
<p id="dQDQ5Q">We had a tie for the top spot this year.</p>
<p id="ll5Sox">Vladdy Jr., is the type of prospect you dream about when thinking of a way to get a top prospect without tanking to do so. His raw power, massive physique, baseball background and hand-eye coordination are all attributes you write up on the white board while brainstorming around the question, “what we need in tomorrow’s future?” </p>
<p id="Xu7YUR">At 17 years old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., heir of the great Vladimir Guererro Sr. who tore up the major leagues in the 1990s and 2000s, is the future. With the raw upside of an MVP caliber player, Guerrero has been a name on the minds of many Blue Jays fans since the Alex Anthopoulos administration inked him to an international contract two years ago. </p>
<p id="KFhrhr">In fact many prospect lists have him slated as the number one in the system including that of Baseball America and Keith Law who ranks him 48th in his top 100 prospects for 2017. </p>
<p id="lcCXiQ">In 2016, Guerrero Jr., earned his first chance to perform in professional baseball at the ripe age of 17 and did everything he could to live up to his name. In 62 games with the Bluefield Blue Jays, Guerrero hit an impressive .271/.359/.449 with eight home runs, 46 RBI, and a surprising 15 stolen bases. What impresses many who come across this stat-line, dovetailed with a picture of the 6’1” 200 pounder is that he’s labelled as an average to slightly above average baserunner with average speed. That’s not to say he’s going to be relied upon to steal 15 bags in a major league uniform someday, but it is nice to say that he at least won’t be a liability on the base paths if that day ever comes to pass. </p>
<p id="KCYE8K">One of the knocks on Mr. Guerrero’s game prior to being signed, and even when he first became a Blue Jay, was that there was uncertainty as to where he would fit in on the field. Some thought he didn’t have the speed and foot work required to stay at the hot corner, which could have relegated him to left-field duty or as a first base, DH type of role. In 2016 though, Guerrero seemed to prove the doubters wrong, manifesting an <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/guerrero-jr-named-no-1-blue-jays-prospect-baseball-america/">above-average arm</a> from third base with a good feel for the position that could only improve while being given more time in the Blue Jays’ system. </p>
<p id="CBqcGl">The big thing with Guerrero though is that he is just 17 years old. While many Jays’ fans are salivating over what could be with the youngster, there is still a lot of room and time to grow before he buttons up a Blue Jays uniform and fits into the role that the club and the fans see for him. Baseball America projects him to arrive at the age of 20 in 2019, but even <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/1/26/14399378/three-blue-jays-in-keith-laws-top-100-mlb-prospects">Law gives Guerrero</a> the off-chance of touching down sooner than that. </p>
<p id="9psmiV">“The sky is the limit for the young Vladimir, and if he doesn’t outgrow the hot corner, the Jays might have a 30-homer bat who gets on base to take over when <span>Josh Donaldson</span> leaves.” </p>
<p id="kbRmxH"><span><strong>1-tie. </strong><strong>Anthony Alford</strong></span><strong>, age 22 (DOB: July 20, 1994), CF, Last year: 1</strong></p>
<p id="fFUSVa"><span>Anthony Alford</span> probably wants to a redo on the year 2016. After dealing with a nagging knee injury and concussion for parts of the season, Alford ended the year by dealing with the loss of his family’s home in Mississippi. But with a flip of the calendar and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2017/01/13/blue-jays-prospect-anthony-alford-grateful-for-support-after-family-home-burns-down.html">the help of teammates and friends to repair his family’s home</a>, Alford is back to baseball and stepping into what will be an important year for his career. </p>
<p id="lCaezw">Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft largely because of his focus on becoming a football player, Alford hadn’t played a full season of professional baseball until 2015 where he started with the Lansing Lugnuts before ending the season with the Dunedin Blue Jays. Over that time, he stroked an impressive .298/.398/.421 slash line with four home runs. </p>
<p id="cqTdk9">Hoping to take another step forward in 2016, Alford started the year on the disabled list for more than a month after injuring himself sliding into home plate in Dunedin’s first game of the season before being sidelined in June <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/blue-jays-anthony-alford-released-from-hospital-diagnosed-with-concussion/">with a concussion </a> sustained from a <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/6/10/11907726/anthony-alford-injured-in-on-field-collison">collision with other top prospect and teammate Richard Urena</a>. </p>
<p id="nwExZO">Although Alford eventually returned to the Jays’ lineup, he wasn’t able to surmount a 2015-like year as he finished 2016 with a line of .236/.344/.378. Despite the struggles, Alford caught the attention of many in the famous Arizona Fall League while playing with the Mesa Solar Sox, hitting .253/.349/.440 with three long balls, proving that 2017 may be the year he takes his next step forward. </p>
<p id="ACaBDY">If healthy, look for Alford to start the season in Double-A New Hampshire with the possibility of earning a promotion to Triple-A or the big leagues depending on his development and the state of the Jays’ outfield depth. At 22 years old, Alford fits in perfectly with the age timeline of a Double-A prospect but is somewhat ahead of his timeline given that this will be only his third full season of playing professional baseball. If things don’t come together for Alford in 2017, there’s still time before this flower comes to bloom. </p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/14/14601052/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-1-3eelliott292017-02-10T10:14:48-05:002017-02-10T10:14:48-05:002017 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 4-6
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<img alt="Top 40 Prospects" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1Q4D-8dmd3ShuDli8AxSLE4iQbI=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/53186149/top40.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Top 40 Prospects</figcaption>
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<p>Entering the middle of our Top 10, our 4-6 features a top international signing, a future LHH slugger, and the heir apparent.</p> <p id="juvQiO">For all previous (and future) entries in the Top 40 prospect series, see the <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index"><strong>2017 Top 40 Prospect Index</strong></a>.</p>
<p id="qnUDk3"><strong>6 - </strong><span><strong>Lourdes Gurriel</strong></span><strong>, IF, age 23 (Oct 19, 1993), last year: Not in system</strong></p>
<p id="4Ozoy1">Considered one of the top available international prospects, Gurriel inked a seven-year, $22m contract with the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> in the off-season. And perhaps more impressively, he entered our Top-10 before the ink was even dry. A career .277/.362/.426 hitter in Cuba the 23-year old prospect hit .344/.407/.560 in his 2015-16 campaign before signing to come over to North America.</p>
<p id="w7grG4">He shows some pop in his bat hitting 10 HR in 246 PA's in his final year, and stole 8 bases on top of it. He's said to be capable of playing second, third, short, as well as having been worked out in the outfield, and is said to have a strong arm.</p>
<p id="sUMYQ5">Here's a snippet of <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/blue-jays-sign-lourdes-gurriel-cuba.html">MLB Trade Rumours</a> article on his signing:</p>
<blockquote><p id="wUvpDr"><em>" He ran a 6.65 in the 60-yard dash and drew positive reviews on his physique and strong arm, though some scouts felt he needed more work against live pitching. </em><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-20-prospects-cuba-1-10/"><em>Baseball America’s Ben Badler</em></a><em> has penned scouting reports on Gurriel in the past (subscription required and recommended), giving praise to his bat speed, quality approach at the plate and strike zone management skills."</em></p></blockquote>
<p id="TOFFtd"><br>Not entirely sure when we will see this young player at the big league level but, if I had to bet, I’d say sooner rather than later. Older than a normal 1st year prospect I suspect he will start in the minors but expect him to be given every opportunity to rise through the ranks and crack the big league roster as quickly as possible.<br><br><strong>5 - </strong><span><strong>Rowdy Tellez</strong></span><strong>, 1B, age 21 (March 16, 1995), last year: 6th</strong></p>
<p id="dsHvH3">There is a lot of hope in Jays Nation about the future of this lefty slugger following his fantastic campaign in Double-A in 2016.</p>
<p id="G5UbSz">Beyond the power, which is probably his best asset beyond happening to be a lefty bat, though lefty power is rare, and also something the Jays desperately need (see: Morales signing). He hit 18 HR over 124 games in 2015 before upping his output to 23 last season. He has a solid plate approach, as shown with a BB% of 12.3 in 2016 and finished with a .297/.387/.530 slash for the year.</p>
<p id="du8Jed">Now, considering he’s limited defensively to 1B, we might not see him this season with Morales, Smoak, Bautista, and Pearce all already on the roster. But, that is not a certainty. A strong start in the minors combined with a slow one from someone like Smoak and we could see him push himself into the big leagues. </p>
<p id="fzmCdp"><br><strong>4 - </strong><span><strong>Richard Urena</strong></span><strong>, SS, age 20 (Feb 26, 1996), last year: 3rd</strong></p>
<p id="DezTNF">The heir apparent to <span>Troy Tulowitzki</span> drops down one spot to #4 (#3 last year) thanks in big part to some Double-A struggles. <br><br>In 30 games (132 PA) he hit .266 with just a .282 OBP, and a .395 SLG% with 0 HR, which was disappointing to some of us around BBB considering his .305/.351/.447 in High-A ball (8 HR).</p>
<p id="ByR8qZ">Still, no need to sound the alarms just yet. He also showed a bit of growth in his offensive game. In 2015 he struck out 110 times over 121 games (536 PA) but dropped that total significantly to just 83 K's in 127 games (563 PA), and his K% remained consistent from High-A to Double-A at around 14.5% (14.4 in AA, 14.8 in A+), though he also walked more going from 16 walks the year before to 29.</p>
<p id="yNTU3T">There is room for growth, of course, but his defensive game is still strong and he continues to develop as he moves up through the ranks of the minor league system. It's too early to tell right now, there is a lot of money tied up at SS, and 2B as well as 3B seem tied up for the foreseeable future, so it is difficult to project when we might see him, but at #4 there is hope around BBB that the <span>Richard Urena</span> era is not too far off into the distance.<br></p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/10/14556092/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-4-6Mike Hannah2017-02-09T08:33:02-05:002017-02-09T08:33:02-05:00The 2017 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 7-9
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cDJyw216wCuphF6dJNHTR_TMg8s=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/53141419/top40.0.jpg" />
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<p>Three more of the 2017 Top 10 Blue Jays prospects are unveiled today.</p> <p>Here we are on a brisk Thursday, delving deeper into our Top 10 <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> prospects of 2017. If you've followed the unveiling of this list for a few years now, then you know that by this point Spring Training is just around the corner. Soon prospect discussion and stat-line scouting will give way to real baseball action and <b>much</b> more meaningful conversations about which players are in the 'best shape of their lives' down in Dunedin.</p>
<p>We're not quite there yet though, so today we'll look at #7-#9 on our Top 40 list. This trio consists of a top prospect that's been around for awhile, along with the two highest ranked 2016 draftees that will appear in our rankings. Without further ado, let's dive right in!</p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; padding: 0px; color: #3b3b3b;"><span>2016</span>: <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/17/11027460/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-1-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;">1<font color="#215292" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">-</font>5</a> | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/15/10997782/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-6-10" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;"><span>6-10</span> </a>| <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/12/10927180/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-11-15" data-ref-index="7" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;">11-15</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/10/10955340/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-16-20" data-ref-index="8" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;">16-20</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/8/10937728/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25" data-ref-index="9" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;">21-25</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/5/10922490/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30" data-ref-index="10" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;">26-30</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/4/10910398/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35" data-ref-index="11" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;">31-35</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/2/10892888/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40" data-ref-index="12" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;">36-40</a></p>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; padding: 0px; color: #3b3b3b;"><span>2017</span>: <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/8/14541634/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-10-12"><b>10-12</b></a> | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/7/14524936/the-2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-15-13"><b>13-15</b></a> | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/6/14516056/the-2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-20-16"><b>16-20</b></a><span> | </span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/3/14463726/the-2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25"><b>21-25</b></a><span><b> </b>| </span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/2/14464804/the-2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30"><b>26-30</b></a><span> | </span><a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14034548/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35" target="_blank" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;"><span>31-35</span></a><a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14034548/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35" target="_blank" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; font-weight: 700;"> </a><span>|</span><span> </span><span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/1/31/14415446/the-2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #215292; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent;"><b>36-40</b></a></span></p>
<h4 id="pd3RnI" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">9. Bo Bichette, age 18 (DOB March 5, 1998), IF, Last Year: In High School</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays selected young Bo in the 2nd round of the most recent draft last June, signing him above slot for $1.1 million. At some points leading up to the draft, Bichette was mock drafted to go in the first round but ended up sliding a bit to the Jays at pick #66 on the basis of some backroom deals being hammered out between him and the team.</p>
<p>As he approached the draft in his final year of high school, the scouting reports on Bo praised his bat speed and overall ability at the plate despite his imperfect swing. There was also questions about where he would end up playing defensively as it appeared to many evaluators that he wouldn't cut it at shortstop or third base, making second the likely destination.</p>
<p>The story hasn't changed all that much in the months since Bichette became property of the Blue Jays. The righty hitter went to the GCL after being drafted and got in 91 plate appearances before season's end, slashing .427/.451/.732 with four home runs. Those numbers are quite remarkable but obviously they must be taken with a grain of salt considering the competition level and small sample size.</p>
<p>Regardless, Bichette has made his name known in Blue Jays prospect circles and will look to build on the hype even more in 2017. As an 18-year-old, Bichette has miles to go before he even makes a full-season team, but a repeat performance this year will have him flying even further up this list next winter. It's tough to say where he will be assigned, but Bluefield wouldn't be a bad guess on where he ends up in 2017 for the majority of his ABs.</p>
<p>Take a look at Bo (and his unique swing) from his time in the GCL last summer:</p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RaMYWvi-JaA" height="315" width="560"></iframe></p>
<h4 id="pd3RnI" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">8. TJ Zeuch, age 21 (DOB August 1, 1995), RHP, Last Year: At University of Pittsburgh</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays first pick in the 2016 draft was Zeuch, who was a Junior at the University of Pittsburgh at the time.<a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/6/9/11899142/blue-jays-select-t-j-zeuch-rhp-from-the-university-of-pittsburgh-in"> As was noted by a lot of Jays fans</a> at the time of the draft, this pick was a classic selection for the team who have drafted a college pitcher in the first round more often than not in recent times. Some have worked out like Marcus Stroman, while some have backfired like Deck McGuire. Before Zeuch, Jon Harris and Jeff Hoffman were the two most recent college arms picked by the Blue Jays early on in the draft.</p>
<p>Zeuch is a fairly high-ceiling guy who stands 6'7" and throws hard, with a fastball clocked in the high-90's last year. He started almost all of the appearances in his college career and also had a nice time of it in the Cape Cod league in the summer prior to his draft year. The righty projects as a mid-rotation guy with a classic four pitch mix who could be a solid starter in the major leagues if he can consistently miss bats. His easy delivery and upbringing in cold Ohio means he should avoid a lot of the injury issues that come along with draftees who either were overworked in school or who have strained mechanics.</p>
<p>After he was drafted, the tall righty threw three innings in the GCL before being sent north to Vancouver. There he threw 23 innings over six starts putting up solid, if unspectacular numbers. Next he was sent to Lansing where he made two more starts putting up impressive peripherals despite a 9.00 ERA. In 8 IP in A-ball, he struck out 14 batters while only walking two which probably means more than the runs he did allow (even if it doesn't, I'm going to frame it that way).</p>
<p>He's always been a guy who is around the strike zone with his pitches and his BB% of around 5% in 2016 shows that to still be the case. Look for Zeuch to start out in Lansing and end up being promoted if he's able to continue his consistent performances in the rotation. There's no ace here, but a strike-thrower who can miss some bats wouldn't be a bad result out of the Jays 21st overall pick.</p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WEa2HfphFUA" height="315" width="560"></iframe></p>
<h4 style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: " id="pd3RnI">7. Conner Greene, age 21 (DOB April 4, 1995), RHP, Last Year: #2</h4>
<p>What a difference a few months makes. A year ago now, Conner Greene friend of Charlie Sheen took advantage of a weak Blue Jays prospect crop to launch himself up to the #2 spot on our 2016 list thanks to two promotions in the 2015 season bringing himself from A-ball up to Double-A as a 20-year-old. Now he's dropped down the list a bit to #7 because of a slightly underwhelming year in Dunedin and New Hampshire this past season plus an influx of new sexy talent into the organization.</p>
<p>After making five Double-A starts in 2015, we assumed Greene would spend most of the following year at the same level trying to build off of his success. Instead the righty was back in Dunedin for the first three months of the season trying to find a way to miss more bats. In 15 FSL starts he tossed up a 2.90 ERA, but the peripherals give a bit more reason to be bearish. A 5.91 K/9 along with a 4.40 BB/9 are not the numbers you love to see of a pitcher in A-ball.</p>
<p>In July he made the step back up to Double-A and started 12 games turning in an ERA of 4.19 with a stronger, albeit still pedestrian, K/BB rate. He also made four starts in the Arizona Fall League where he allowed six earned runs in 10 innings to go along with 11 walks.</p>
<p>Although he doesn't appear to have knockout stuff, Greene is beginning to polish himself as a somewhat dependable arm with a good fastball and changeup mix. More likely than not though, his best chance of a major league career will be coming out of the bullpen unless he can really refine his secondary pitches. In fact, there's a lot of buzz surrounding his odds of being called up to the team as a reliever in this coming season if some injuries arise. For a 7th round pick out of high school, this wouldn't be a worst case scenario by any stretch.</p>
<p>More immediately in 2017, Greene will likely break camp and head back to Double-A for a short stay if all things go well. Next would be some time in Buffalo waiting for a potential call-up to the Majors in the latter part of the year. There's no reason for the Jays to give up on the righty as a starter yet, so look for him to stay in the rotation until the call is made that he would be a more valuable asset out of the pen.</p>
<p>In the video below you can see what Greene has to offer in terms of stuff, but also notice how few swings and misses he gets on pitches near the zone:</p>
<p><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eZ26gCrkuvQ" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/9/14543904/the-2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-7-9Scott C.2017-02-08T10:00:49-05:002017-02-08T10:00:49-05:002017 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 10-12
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/diqs-pJEL0ZXbThMjKMzJ7h6_jc=/0x0:709x473/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/53144987/top40.0.0.0.jpg" />
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<p>The top two signed 2015 draftees and a new addition to the system land on the next part of the 2017 Top 40.</p> <p>For all previous (and future) entries in the Top 40 prospect series, see the <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index">2017 Top 40 Prospect Index</a>.</p>
<p><b>2016</b>: <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/17/11027460/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-1-5" style="background-color: #ffffff;">1<font face="Mercury SSm A, Mercury SSm B, Georgia, serif" color="#215292">-</font>5</a> | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/15/10997782/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-6-10" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">6-10 </a>| <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/12/10927180/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-11-15" data-ref-index="7" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">11-15</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/10/10955340/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-16-20" data-ref-index="8" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">16-20</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/8/10937728/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25" data-ref-index="9" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">21-25</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/5/10922490/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30" data-ref-index="10" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">26-30</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/4/10910398/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35" data-ref-index="11" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">31-35</a> | <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/2/2/10892888/the-2016-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40" data-ref-index="12" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: ">36-40</a></p>
<p><b>12. <span>Harold Ramirez</span>, OF, age 22 (DOB: 9/6/1994), last year: in Pittsburgh's system</b></p>
<p><span>Ramirez</span> slots in one spot ahead of the other prospect acquired from Pittsburgh in last summer's Liriano deal. He had one heck of a debut with New Hampshire, going 3/4 with a double and walk before immediately hitting the DL for the rest of the season. Signed out of Colombia for $1-million in 2011, his progress through the minors has been solid if unspectacular: GCL in 2012, short season in 2013, low-A in 2014, high-A in 2015, AA in 2016.</p>
<p>His calling card is his ability to hit for average, as he's hit above .300 at every full season level. This has been accomplished by limiting strikeouts (14-16%) and putting the ball in play, with a ground ball skew. He doesn't draw many walks, so his on-base ability will be driven by his batting average. Conversely, he hasn't hit for much power, and does not project to do so. Steamer projects he would hit .272/.314/.375 (87 wRC+) in the majors in 2017, which looks about right to me.</p>
<p>Defensively, he's come up playing CF including in 2016; however, his future is likely in a corner. While he has some speed, he's not a real burner and his arm isn't great. The overall profile reminds me of <span>Shannon Stewart</span>, though a poor man's version as he lacks the impact speed and stronger plate discipline metrics. Another concern is his ability to stay healthy and on the field, as he hasn't reached 400 PA in any of the last three years.</p>
<p>The big risk, beyond the general risks of prospects failing, is that Ramirez ends up as a "tweener": that he won't hit well enough to be an everyday regular in an outfield corner, without the defensive ability to handle CF where his bat would better profile. But considering how he was acquired, the Jays are basically playing with house money to begin with when comes to Ramirez.</p>
<p><b>11. Justin Maese, RHP, age 20 (DOB: 10/24/1996), last year: 9</b></p>
<p>Force your way to low-A the year after being drafted out of high school, more than hold your own yet drop two spots? Go figure. Full disclosure: I'm very bullish on Maese, he's 5th on my list, so what follows may be biased to the upside.</p>
<p>Maese was signed for $300,000 as a third round pick in 2015 out of Ysleta High in El Paso, Texas. I mention this principally because I heard Keith Law talk about a year ago that this is a difficult area of the country for scouts to travel to, so players can fall through the cracks. Which could explain how the Jays not only got Maese in the 3rd round, but at less than half of slot.</p>
<p>After being drafted, Maese dominated the GCL wth a 1.01 ERA, capping it off with 10 strikeouts over 6 innings in playoff start. That skipped him all the way over Bluefield to Vancouver in 2016, where he simply rolled over much more experienced hitters for basically four starts, forcing the Jays to promote him to Lansing so he'd be challenged. There too he succeeded, with a 3.36 ERA over 10 starts and 56.1 innings. But perhaps most intriguing was the emergence of a new Maese.</p>
<p>Starting 2016, Maese's bread and butter was a power sinker in the low 90s, which he used almost exclusively and drew quick, weak contact on the ground though not a ton of missed bats. He consequently wasn't striking out a lot of batters. The same was true for his first couple starts in Lansing, but by early August he was a different pitcher. His fastball was consistently in the 94-95 range, touching up to 97 and he mixing in a hard, mid/high 80s slider that gave him a secondary weapon. Over his last five starts, he struck out 30 in 29 innings while maintaining a strong ground ball profile.</p>
<p>Putting that all together, we've got a 20 year old who already succeeded in low-A against much more experienced hitters, with a strong primary pitch and already showing tangible signs of improvement with his secondary pitch. Granted, he doesn't really have a third pitch, but we've seen with <span>Aaron Sanchez</span> that a dominant sinker with one good secondary can more than work. What's not to like?</p>
<p><b>10. Jon Harris, RHP, age 23 (DOB: 10/16/1993), last year: 7</b></p>
<p>Perhaps appropriately, one spot higher than Maese is the only signed 2015 draftee taken ahead of him, first rounder Jon Harris who too has dropped a couple spots despite righting the ship in 2016 after a disappointing 2015 pro debut.</p>
<p>Let's start with the good. Harris has a classic pitcher build, though still has room to fill out his body some, and would perhaps benefit from that. He has a fastball, change-up, slider and curveball; all of which he can use, though none of them really stand out as plus. After not completing the first inning of the Lugnuts' 2016 debut, he spent the next three months carving up the Midwest League, allowing just one (unearned) run over his next six starts. All told, he posted a 2.23 ERA in 84.2 innings, frequently working deep into games and turning over the lineup three times.</p>
<p>That earned him a call-up to Dunedin, where he added 51.1 innings solid if mostly unspectacular innings to a 3.51 ERA, 31 strikeouts against 15 walks. Digging a little bit deeper into the stats, across both levels he did a good job managing contact, with a moderate ground ball orientation. What he did not do is consistently miss a lot of bats, which is what one wants premium pitching prospects to do. Harris had a contact rate around 80% at both levels.</p>
<p>Indeed, this would be my biggest concern. For as efficient as he was and as good as his results were particularly in Lansing, outside of a couple starts he was not overpowering and dominant to the extent an experienced college first round pick should be expected to. And in Dunedin, his peripherals were pretty pedestrian. Will there be further decline when he gets to AA (if not to start the year)? This will be the big thing to watch for Harris.</p>
<p>If one likes Harris, they see a polished pitcher who profiles as a solid back of the rotation guy, with the potential for a mid rotation starter if he fills out some and his stuff ticks up a little. The bear case would be that he's essentially a right handed <span>Deck McGuire</span>.</p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/8/14541634/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-10-12Matt W2017-02-07T12:24:16-05:002017-02-07T12:24:16-05:00The 2017 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 15-13
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<p>A couple of catchers and lefty pitcher are on today’s menu. </p> <p id="pG78sb">We have made it to the top 15. </p>
<p id="heU68C"><strong>15. Angel Perdomo, age 22 (DOB: May 7, 1994), LHP, Last Year: 14th</strong></p>
<p id="erlS1U">Our 6’6” lefty, a free agent signing out of the Dominican Republic, is sitting at about the same spot on the list he was at last year. The year before he was 20th. You would think he would make a move one way or the other. I’d like to think this is his year to take a big step up. </p>
<p id="Bc42c8">In 2016 Angel pitched in Lansing, moving up from Vancouver the year before. He had a 5-7 record with a 3.19 ERA in 27 games, 25 starts. In 127 innings he allowed 101 hits, 54 walks and 156 strikeouts. You gotta like pitchers who strikeout 11 batters per 9 innings. The walk rate is a little higher than you would like to see, but big lefties tend to take a bit longer to find their control than more normal sized mortals. </p>
<p id="Oy2zK1">He throws low 90’s but gets up to 95-96 on occasion and has a slider and a change. He’s not as consistent as you would like, but that’s to be expected. He has great games and bad games. </p>
<p id="GHqf0R">I keep thinking that a guy with that size and would look good (and intimidating) coming out of the bullpen, but he could also be a good starter if he can get a little more consistent. I’d imagine he’d start this year in Dunedin. He’s likely 2 years away from the majors. Presuming he gets there. </p>
<p id="NX3O2c"></p>
<p id="NJQDtl"><strong>14. Max Pentecost, age 23 (DOB: March 10, 1993), C, Last Year: 8th</strong></p>
<p id="oqGiwt">You know his story, Max was our first round pick in 2014, out of Kennesaw State University. The hope was that he would quickly raise through the minors and, well, be in Toronto by now. </p>
<p id="E8jMgc">It hasn’t happened.</p>
<p id="SdOhpw">Max has had his share of injuries. Actually, his share, my share and your share. He missed out on 2015 totally, after shoulder surgery in February of that year. Then he had shoulder surgery again in December of that year. </p>
<p id="eJRcke">This year, he got into 74 games, all but 1 at DH. He hit .302/.361/.486, in 62 games at Lansing and 12 in Dunedin, with 10 home runs, 24 walks and 68. Great numbers for a catcher. Good numbers for a DH. And there is the problem, if he can continue at the catcher position, he’s got a great bat, if he has to move to DH or first base, well he has an ok bat. </p>
<p id="MlisOz">This year, if he can come back to playing catcher, he’s too low on the list. If he can’t come back to being a catcher, he’s too high on the list. </p>
<p id="TbKOCC">Max has lost two years of development at the catcher position, so this year is going to be pretty important. When spring training starts, I’m going to to watching to see if he catches. </p>
<p id="OVEk9k"><strong>13. </strong><span><strong>Reese McGuire</strong></span><strong>, age 21 (DOB: March 2, 1994), C, Last Year: Slumming in the </strong><a href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/"><strong>Pirates</strong></a><strong> system</strong></p>
<p id="RwoAbH">In a trade that still amazes me (if Alex had pulled off this trade it would be more proof that he was a ninja), the Jays traded <span>Drew Hutchison</span> to the Pirates, getting back <span>Francisco Liriano</span> and <span>Harold Ramirez</span> and Reese McGuire. I thought Liriano for Hutchison was a win for the Jays. </p>
<p id="OTo5jk">The Pirates picked McGuire in the first round of the 2013 draft. He has been considered one of the Pirates top prospects ever since. Baseball America listed McGuire as the Pirates number 5 prospect. </p>
<p id="uhmzwP">He’s a very good defensive catcher, good at framing pitches, good at handling pitchers, good arm (he threw out 39% of basestealers in AA Altoona last year) and is athletic behind the plate. </p>
<p id="pHIr3w">Defensively, he could be a MLB catcher now. </p>
<p id="UFcNE0">Offensively, he isn’t at the same level. In 2016, he hit .254/.335/.332 with 1 home run, 36 walks and 34 strikeouts in 92 AA games. He’s shown no power in 4 minor league seasons (.329 Slugging Average with 4 home runs in 1418 PA). </p>
<p id="m3nHNm">If he doesn’t learn to hit he tops out as a glove first backup catcher. He’s young enough to learn how to use that bat, but we’d like to see some sign of hitting ability soon. </p>
<p id="EPkWhw">Combining McGuire and Pentecost would make the perfect catcher prospect. I guess it depends on whether you think it is more likely that Reese learns to hit or Max is able to stay healthy enough to play behind the plate, as to which one you think is the better prospect. I had Max above Reese because I think his ceiling is higher, but then I think Reese is more likely to make the majors. </p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/7/14524936/the-2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-15-13Tom Dakers