Bluebird Banter - 2018 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects List IndexRoster moves R Us.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47723/bluebird-fv.png2018-02-24T09:00:02-05:00http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/rss/stream/176268692018-02-24T09:00:02-05:002018-02-24T09:00:02-05:00Beyond the Top 40: Top 5 Older Prospects
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<img alt="Top 40 Prospects" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DjmiSE2MCiraca48uk1xJ44X2ZY=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58797427/top40.0.jpg" />
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<p id="p4FAvH">We have reached the end. This last instalment of the 2018 Top 40 series was supposed to go up yesterday, but instead the Jays got to the diamond before we got to the end.</p>
<p id="RGpswf">2018: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/16/17020460/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-1-4"><strong>1-4</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/14/16848420/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-5-8"><strong>5-8 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/12/17003942/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-9-12"><strong>9-12</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/9/16970936/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-13-16"><strong>13-16</strong></a><strong> </strong>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/7/16984128/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-17-20"><strong>17-20</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/5/16876854/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25"><strong>21-25 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/2/16957320/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30"><strong>26-30</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/31/16930372/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35"><strong>31-35</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/29/16943880/2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40"><strong>36-40</strong></a> | Just missed: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/19/16851396/beyond-the-top-40-matts-2018-just-missed-list">Matt</a>, <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/21/17026086/beyond-the-top-40-toms-2018-just-missed-list">Tom</a> | Older</p>
<p id="XDwWTt">2017: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index"><strong>Top 40 Index</strong></a></p>
<p id="Yd2vIR">As Tom mentioned at the outset, eligibility for the BBB list is based not just on retaining rookie eligibility, but also on an age cutoff/screen. 2018 must be no more than a player’s age-25 season, that is, player must be 25 or under on June 30, 2018 (meaning born after June 30, 1992).</p>
<p id="tpuZsl">That’s not to say that players who were eliminated by the age cutoff don’t have any value. For example, <span>Danny Barnes</span> was at or near the top of this list the last two years and has emerged as a solid reliever. Rather, it reflects the fact with younger prospects, the overriding element is projecting future abilities, whereas by the time a player is 25 or 26 that’s not so much the case. </p>
<p id="OfATeh">Hence, a separate list of prospects who missed the age cutoff but who could factor in as major league contributors. The pool of players this year isn’t as deep as in recent years, since 5-7 years ago the Jays heavily drafted high school players, but there’s still some interesting talent.</p>
<h5 id="5HumUD">1. <span>Carlos Ramirez</span>, RHP, age 26 (DOB: 4/24/1991)</h5>
<p id="qKbypH">As with last year’s #1 on this list, <span>Danny Barnes</span>, in some sense this is cheating a bit since we’ve been able to see what he can at the big league level, albeit with a number of caveats. He obviously had a great 2017, not allowing an earned run until September 20th. He combines a low-90s fastball and slider, and given the results it would appear a bunch of deception.</p>
<p id="tRQqMt">I was actually a little underwhelmed when <span>Ramirez</span> was called up. His fastball was about what I was expecting, but his slider was not the wipeout secondary pitch I was anticipating. Without firming that up, I can’t really see him as more than a middle reliever, but that would still be a great outcome for someone’s whose career appeared over four years ago.</p>
<h5 id="6CsQ5c">2. <span>Tim Mayza</span>, LHP, age 26 (DOB: 1/15/1992)</h5>
<p id="hisbhO">Similar to <span>Ramirez</span> above, we have some MLB data on <span>Mayza</span> and an argument could certainly be made to have him #1. As a lefty with a mid-90s fastball, he definitely has higher upside than <span>Ramirez</span>. That’s reflected in his 34% strikeout rate over 17 MLB innings, good for a 2.98 FIP and 2.15 xFIP. If he can come anywhere close to replicating that, he’ll have a long big league career.</p>
<p id="cTFpYF">The rub is the 6.88 ERA. Yes, it was only 17 innings, but when he got hit, he got hit hard. And command has been a recurring issue in the minors, so I can’t easily dismiss it as a small sample size. There’s plenty of potential, but his performance has been really choppy from level to level. That said, we don’t want to overread it either. I’m skeptical Mayza will be a high leverage guy, but I can definitely see him as a useful lefty.</p>
<h5 id="ezj9BU">3. Jonathan Davis, OF, age 25 (DOB: 5/12/1992)</h5>
<p id="uMvJcF">Anthony Alford’s brother-in-law has put himself on the map in his own right, with a strong 2016 in high-A and a decent 2017 in AA followed by a strong stint in the Arizona Fall League that turned some heads. Jonathan Mayo labelling him a <a href="https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/breakout-prospects-from-arizona-fall-league/c-262207362">breakout AFL prospe</a>ct, and he’ll be in big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.</p>
<p id="nwhtOz">I could see him making the big leagues, and maybe even lasting for a few years as an extra guy with the ability to contribute in multiple ways. I don’t see much beyond a fringe role, despite the hype since the end of last year. But if nothing else, he’s now the #1 ranked Davis in the system (I guess we’re not getting Trout for our #2 Davis).</p>
<h5 id="Lx2CdL">4. <span>Roemon Fields</span>, CF, age 27 (DOB: 11/28/1990)</h5>
<p id="b4JXeW">Fields posted a strong line in 2017, hitting .291/.355/.352 in 388 PA in Buffalo. It was a pretty empty average, though he walks at a decent clip and doesn’t strike out too often. It was fuelled by .357 BABIP, but for a very speedy player who puts the ball on the gorund alot while squaring up balls at a reasonable clip, it’s not neessarily unsustainable. </p>
<p id="RHDYwB">I’m quite confident that barring the totally unexpected, Fields will make to MLB at some point, at least for a cup of coffee. If he’s not totally overmatched at the plate, he cold carve out a career as a bench player, with speed on the basepaths to pinch run and the ability to play at any spot in the outfield. </p>
<h5 id="QNKiPY">5. Dusty Isaacs, RHP, age 26 (DOB: 8/7/1991)</h5>
<p id="aRUEmX">I struggled with whom to put at #5, depending on the direction one wants to go there’s different options. <span>Chad Girodo</span> might be the most likely to provide big league innings. <span>Chris Rowley</span> had a rough debut, but carved up the high minors and maybe the stuff would tick up in the bullpen. Ultimately though I went with Isaacs, if only to highlight a name that might not be as familiar. </p>
<p id="qYTX58">It’s not big raw stuff, as his fastball tops out in the low-90s, and his slider isn’t a knockout secondary, but he has struck out well over a batter per inning every season. 2017 was the most notable, as he struck out 76 in 61.2 innings (29%), and it’s certainly not nothing to do that over a full season against reasonably experienced hitters (in a smaller league where you see the same teams over and over). The 18th rounder in 2018 has maintained his performance up the ladder, and that’s worth noting.</p>
<p id="tQGHE7"><strong>Others of Note</strong>: Girodo (LOOGY potential, seemingly passed over), <span>Drew Muren</span> (guys who throw 100 MPH will always be interesting), Rowley, Jason Leblebijian, <span>Deck McGuire</span>, Gift Npoege (40-man for now, just an org guy in my books)</p>
<p id="ywLJ5z"><strong>Players who will hit the age cutoff next year:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li id="6nsoKf">Top 40: RHP <span>Taylor Guerrieri</span>, RHP Jordan Romano, C Max Pentecost, OF Dwight Smith Jr, RHP Justin Shafer</li>
<li id="2tvcQY">Other: OF Connor Panas, RHP Tom Robson, RHP Andrew Case, C Michael De La Cruz, RHP Josh DeGraaf, LHP <span>Jose Fernandez</span>, IF <span>Emilio Guerrero</span>, OF Andrew Guillotte, 2B Gunnar Heidt, LHP Taylor Saucedo, RHP William Ouellette, IF Mattingly Romanin</li>
</ul>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/24/16856628/beyond-the-top-40-top-5-older-prospectsMatt W2018-02-21T08:59:01-05:002018-02-21T08:59:01-05:00Beyond the Top 40: Tom’s 2018 Just Missed List
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<p id="c8otur">I’ve always liked the ‘Just Missed Out Lists’. Last year Matt and I did reviews of our past ‘just missed lists’. <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/18/14653908/beyond-the-top-40-toms-2017-just-missed-list">Mine is here.</a> Matt’s <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/17/14499020/beyond-the-top-40-matts-2017-just-missed-list#comments">here</a>. </p>
<p id="JTSBdY">My list for this year:</p>
<ul>
<li id="tciRzH">
<strong>Francisco Rios</strong>: He was on our list last year, #19. He had a poor season, 4.29 ERA in 86 innings at New Hampshire, with few strikeouts (63) and too many walks (39). He throws low-mid 90s fastball, has a good curve and slider and yet he’s not getting the results we’d expect. I was still kind of hopeful for him, many pitchers have a hard time on their first look at Double A, but the drop in strikeouts (going from 8.1/9 in 2016 to 6.6 last year) and the jump in walks (going from 2.2/9 to 4.1) isn’t good. He turns 23 in May, he needs a really good year to get back onto the prospect lists. </li>
<li id="QJMA3M">
<span><strong>Harold Ramirez</strong></span>: He was on our list last year, way up at #12 (in retrospect way too high) and he’s on a lot of lists still. He came over in the <span>Francisco Liriano</span> trade, from the <a href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/">Pirates</a>, along with <span>Reese McGuire</span>, for Drew Hutchison. At one time he was a big prospect. Baseball America had him as number 95 on their top 100 prospect list before the 2016 season. He had a pretty lousy 2017 season, hitting .266/.320/.358, with 6 home runs and 5 steals. In 2016 he hit .311/.360/.407. We thought he might be a potential fourth outfielder, but, he doesn’t do much well. He has little power, not enough speed to steal bases and, though he has played all 3 outfield spots, his defense isn’t terrific. He’s 23 now and half a dozen outfielders have leaped over him on the ladder to the majors. He needs a very good year.</li>
<li id="t4UChl">
<span><strong>Yorman Rodriguez</strong></span>: Yorman had a terrific 2017 season, He hit .333/.362/.414, with 3 home runs in 62 games, mostly for Bluefield. I had him on my just missed out list last year as well. Quite good numbers for a 19-year-old catcher. The reasons he missed out on the Top 40 list are: His .333 average was pretty empty, not much for power and it was driven by a high BABIP. He had 7 walks and 25 strikeouts. And, there are questions as to whether he should stay at catcher. His bat looks good for a catcher, for a first baseman, it’s kind of lacking. All that said, in 3 minor league seasons, he’s hit .329/.383/.434 in 190 games. If he can continue hitting and continue to play catcher, he’ll get on our list. </li>
<li id="JTIkxx">
<strong>Miguel Hiraldo</strong>: Miguel was a international signing, this summer, getting himself a $750,000 signing bonus. He’s a shortstop, though he might end up moving to second or the outfield. MLB.com says:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p id="1lzuA8">He can play shortstop and there’s a chance he stays at the position, but there is also a belief that he might end up at third base. Second base is also a possible destination for the versatile fielder, as is the outfield.</p>
<p id="OPfCXR">This much is certain: Hiraldo is a hit-first prospect and he has a chance to be a special player on offense. Scouts like Hiraldo’s approach and his swing. He’s a mature player with quick hands, a plan at the plate and he can hit the ball hard to all fields. He’s also been praised for his makeup and how he plays the game.</p>
</blockquote>
<p id="S5m7O5">When we get some stats to look at, we’ll see if he can make the list.</p>
<ul>
<li id="kLmlT4">
<strong>Kevin Vicuna</strong>: Kevin was an international signing back in 2014. He’s, reportedly, played great defense at short, but hasn’t hit much yet. His glove has carried him up the ladder. He played in Vancouver, Lansing and Dunedin last year, hitting .269/.322/.303 with 16 walks, 68 strikeouts and 17 steals. If his bat could catch up to his glove....</li>
<li id="hThph5">
<strong>Nick Hartman</strong>: Nick was our 9th round pick in 2016. He spent most of 2017 at Lansing, getting in 4 appearances in Dunedin at the end of the season. In total, he had a 2.76 ERA in 36 games. In 45.2 innings, he allowed 40 hits, 16 walks with 42 strikeouts. His fastball can hit 95 and he has a good curve. He’s 23, it would be good to see him move up a level or two this year. </li>
<li id="R7TV6q">
<strong>Kirby Snead</strong>: Kirby is a 23-year-old, lefty pitcher. Our 10th round pick in 2016, the pick right after Hartman. He had a 1.79 ERA, splitting time between Dunedin and Lansing. In 42 games, he pitched 55.1 innings, allowed 42 hits, 25 walks with 56 strikeouts. I like lefty relievers who can strikeout out more than a batter an inning. </li>
</ul>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="pPD9G0">
<p id="bGHsA5">And here are a few guys that, aren’t ‘just missed out’ players, but guys I’m kind on interested in following. I wouldn’t consider them prospects, but just guys who I’m curious to follow. </p>
<ul>
<li id="v2kYKF">
<strong>Reggie Pruitt</strong>: Pruitt was 29th on our list last year, mostly because of his ‘athletic ability’. He is still learning turn that athletic ability into baseball ability. Last year was his third in professional baseball, and at least with that bat, he’s not improving, he hit .229/.297/.297 with 2 home runs and 28 steals in 72 games. He’s just 20, but there is no real sign that he’s figuring out how to hit. </li>
<li id="xxlfIP">
<strong>Wilfri Aleton</strong>: He was #37 on our list last year, then he had a bad year in Vancouver. A LHP, he had a 5.07 ERA in Vancouver. Splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen he pitched 55 innings, allowed 69 hits, 18 walks with 41 strikeouts and that will drop you off our list. </li>
<li id="P9CjXl">
<span><strong>Tim Lopes</strong></span>: Tim was 36th on our list last year. He’s a 23-year-old infielder who came over in the <span>Pat Venditte</span> trade from the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a>. He played in New Hampshire, last year, hitting OK, .271/.338/.390 with 7 homers and 19 steals in 128 games. He split time between second and third base. His big brother, Christian, was banished to the <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a> this winter.</li>
<li id="WItvpW">
<strong>Kacy Clemens</strong>: The son of he-who-we-can-swear-about, was drafted in the 8th round of the 2017 draft. We seem to have a liking for sons of former players. He had a pretty decent first pro season, hitting .274/.379/.413 in 62 games for the Canadians, with 4 home runs, 38 walks and 52 strikeouts. He played first base. He’s 23 now. He’s got a long ways to go to match MLB star sons Vlad Guerrero and Bo Bichette. </li>
<li id="0o2EDr">
<strong>Justin Dillon</strong>: 10th round pick last year, a RHP out of California State University. He pitched in 13 games, 5 starts, for the Canadians. In 23 innings he allowed 17 hits, 4 walks with 28 strikeouts. He’s 24, so he was facing younger opponents</li>
</ul>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/21/17026086/beyond-the-top-40-toms-2018-just-missed-listTom Dakers2018-02-19T12:00:56-05:002018-02-19T12:00:56-05:00Beyond the Top 40: Matt’s 2018 Just Missed List
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<img alt="Top 40 Prospects" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gW0VwT6wqV5Q0262nBiBLfpBr_k=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58743863/top40.0.jpg" />
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<p id="7PNri7">With the Top 40 itself now completed, we dive into the weeds this week to conclude with the annual look beyond the top 40. Today is my “just missed” list, Tom’s will follow on Wednesday, and Friday will conclude with a Top 5 of the “older“ prospects who missed the age cutoff.</p>
<p id="RGpswf">2018: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/16/17020460/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-1-4">1-4</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/14/16848420/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-5-8"><strong>5-8 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/12/17003942/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-9-12"><strong>9-12</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/9/16970936/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-13-16"><strong>13-16</strong></a><strong> </strong>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/7/16984128/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-17-20"><strong>17-20</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/5/16876854/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25"><strong>21-25 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/2/16957320/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30"><strong>26-30</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/31/16930372/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35"><strong>31-35</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/29/16943880/2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40"><strong>36-40</strong></a></p>
<p id="GTDGPH">2017: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index"><strong>Top 40 Index</strong></a></p>
<p id="SnKmF3">Looking at the less heralded, under-the-radar players in the system is one of my favourite parts of this process. The players on this list are generally either those that I had higher than Tom, were on the fringe and just got shuffled off the backend of the list, or are plausible candidates to make a big jump up the rankings next year. For this portion, I don’t include players without professional data at or above the GCL level (complex ball), though some obviously have the upside to be interesting and make future lists. </p>
<p id="vv7dS2"><a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/17/14499020/beyond-the-top-40-matts-2017-just-missed-list">Last year I reviewed my lists from 2015-16</a>, the former pretty good in identifying some diamonds in the rough and the latter not so much. Last year’s falls somewhat in between. Osman Gutierrez started to put things together in Lansing last summer before being traded, and would have made the list. Rodrigo Orozco moved into the backend. Tom Robson started to harness his stuff before getting injured. Chris Hall and Kyle Weatherly performed well in Vancouver but struggled in shorter stints in Lansing.</p>
<p id="T8SUrz">With that said, this year’s list. I was actually surprised by how many players I wanted to touch on, where there’s something interesting, so to some degree that’s probably a good sign of increased depth in the system.</p>
<h5 id="bxd0Ak">Connor Panas, OF, age 25 (DOB: 2/11/1993)</h5>
<p id="3PEoxe">Through the middle of 2017, Panas had shown some power and on-base ability but with a high strikeout rate and as a player who was always older for the league in which he was playing. Thus the overall production was unremarkable for a corner outfielder in context. But then he busted out in a big way, carrying the Dunedin offence down the stretch and in the playoffs (three HR in three games).</p>
<p id="uNKXtS">From US Independence Day onwards, Panas mashed .322/.392/.607, hitting 17 home runs in 252 PA, and cutting his strikeout rate to 20% from 26%. This level of breakout simply can’t be ignored, and is why he’s on my list despite my retaining a strong degree of skepticism. One reason is that looking historically, a number of <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> prospects have had big jumps in Dunedin that turned out to be aberrations. The FSL is a pitcher’s league, but Dunedin is a hitter’s park, especially for power.</p>
<p id="0qbHFi">So 2018 in AA will be the real test of whether this is a legitimate breakout or a flash in the pan of fool’s gold. If he continues to slug against better pitching, he’ll make this way onto next year’s top 40.</p>
<h5 id="i5XKVf">Maximo Castillo, RHP, age 18 (DOB: 5/4/1999)</h5>
<p id="X6IlfC">Castillo was signed in September 2015 for $10,000 and quickly made his way stateside in the middle of 2016 at age 17. His performance in the GCL was unremarkable, but showed enough to make the jump to Bluefield where he had a very nice 2017 in 51.1 innings over 11 starts. The headline number is 58 strikeouts against 7 walks, and that’s the basis for putting him here. His fastball works in the low 90s, and he got a lot of swings and misses on his breaking ball. I’d expect to see him at someone in 2018 in Lansing. </p>
<h5 id="77owc5">Tom Robson, RHP, age 24 (DOB: 6/27/1993)</h5>
<p id="19uUaE">Robson’s had quite the trek through the system and up and down our lists over the years, with injuries slowing his progress. He’s still got a big arm, but he’s struggled to harness his stuff in the bullpen over the last few years. After a slow start and messy outings in April last year, he seemed to do just that, with a 1.63 ERA in 27.2 innings from May onwards. He was consistently at 95-97 with his fastball, and piling up ground balls. Shortly after moving up to AA he went on the DL and missed the last 5 weeks. He’s still got the potential to be an interesting reliever if he an pick up in 2018 where he left off in 2017.</p>
<h5 id="jYC8ew">Dom Abbadessa, OF, age 20 (DOB: 12/18/1997)</h5>
<p id="nHvfZG">Abbadessa signed for $150,000 as a late round pick in 2016, and posted solid production in the GCL in 2017 with a .340/.402/.408 line. The batting average is fuelled by a .373 BABIP that doesn’t have much inferential value given the level of play and sample, and it’s an empty batting line beyond that. But what sticks out is the strikeout rate below 10% for his career. That’s indicative of a very strong contact ability, so maybe he’s a Ben Revere type profile. </p>
<h5 id="UPD9vd">DJ Neal, OF, age 19 (DOB: 1/11/1997)</h5>
<p id="UF5LHj">The 2017 juco draftee in the 26th round posted an intriguing .297/.341/.426 line in his 167 PA debut in the GCL with a modest 15.6% strikeout rate. He’s a converted football player, an excellent runner and very good athlete, so there’s tools to back up the perofrmance.</p>
<h5 id="cA0pRt">Mc Gregory Contreras, OF, age 19 (DOB: 8/30/1998)</h5>
<p id="en0LB2">When he signed in 2015 the most notable thing about him was the unique space in his first name after the “Mc“. But coming stateside in 2017 and skipping over the GCL, “M. C. Gregory” put together a decent .279/.335/.421 campaign in 207 PA, showing a little pop although with a high K rate. </p>
<h5 id="iJ5FrH">Maverik Buffo, RHP, age 22 (DOB: 9/15/1995)</h5>
<p id="6sUjGT">A rough junior year sent him tumbling in the draft to the 34th round, but it was night and day once he signed as he tossed 34 innings with a 0.53 ERA and a 36/2 K/BB. It’s just the GCL, but that’s still eye popping. There’s shades of <span>Danny Barnes</span> (35th round in 2010, 0.67 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 27 GCL innings), so don’t be entirely shocked if Buffo cracks the 2024 bullpen. </p>
<p id="zcZ2dC">Keep an eye on: a lot of the college arms drafted in 2017. I’ve already touched on Buffo, but a lot of the others are interesting for various reasons. There’s only so many spots in Lansing, so the competition for April 2018 assignments should be intense.</p>
<ul>
<li id="MkcdTW">Colton Laws (7th round) posted 1.20 ERA in 15 innings, 15 K, 6’7” righty.</li>
<li id="PUwZSK">Zach Logue (9th round) had a 1.47 ERA with 33/6 K/BB in 30.2 innings after rough junior year, good arm.</li>
<li id="9euTc3">Donnie Sellers (11th round) touched up to 95, converted OF with a fresher arm and newer to pitching</li>
<li id="K0BSsE">Matt Shannon (12th round) only made three outings, but sat 95-96 with his fastball in the seond</li>
</ul>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/19/16851396/beyond-the-top-40-matts-2018-just-missed-listMatt W2018-02-16T14:03:24-05:002018-02-16T14:03:24-05:00The 2018 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 1-4
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<img alt="Top 40 Prospects" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NpVai24mqPLv2jeWZgA0lMVqphM=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58720067/top40.0.jpg" />
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<p>No surprises here. </p> <p id="WlmjKa">We make it to the top of the list. I know you are all wondering who will be in this group. I was just going to list the players and skip the little profiles. </p>
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<p id="RGpswf">2018: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/14/16848420/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-5-8"><strong>5-8</strong> </a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/12/17003942/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-9-12"><strong>9-12</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/9/16970936/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-13-16"><strong>13-16</strong></a><strong> </strong>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/7/16984128/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-17-20"><strong>17-20</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/5/16876854/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25"><strong>21-25 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/2/16957320/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30"><strong>26-30</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/31/16930372/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35"><strong>31-35</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/29/16943880/2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40"><strong>36-40</strong></a></p>
<p id="ZwUXZV">2017: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index"><strong>Top 40 Index</strong></a></p>
<p id="QFDuS2"><strong>4. Nate Pearson, age 21 (DOB August 20, 1996), RHP, Last year: Central Florida Community College.</strong></p>
<p id="NIoCrq">Our first round pick in last year’s draft. Nate is a big guy, 6’6”, listed at 245 pounds. In the post about his pick Matt said:</p>
<blockquote><p id="7xGJPM">The selling point on Pearson is simple: he’s got the best fastball velocity in the draft. In a bullpen session a couple weeks ago, he touched 101 or 102 miles per hour. At 6’6”, 245 pounds, he’s got the frame to be a starter and if/when he makes it to Toronto Tabler will have a field day with the “big and strong” descriptions.</p></blockquote>
<p id="D1O2bI">He’s working on a curve, a slider and a changeup.</p>
<p id="u6Wlzz">Nate made 8 late season starts for us after the draft, 1 in the GCL and 7 for Vancouver. In all, 20 innings, allowed 7 hits, 2 earned, 5 walks with 26 strikeouts. </p>
<p id="vzxEtk">Everything written about Pearson mentions the screw put into his elbow in high school. He hasn’t had any problems since, but there is some thought he might be better off in the bullpen. I think the Jays will give him every chance to be a starter. </p>
<p id="QpZAXo"><strong>3. </strong><span><strong>Anthony Alford</strong></span><strong>, age 23 (DOB: July 20, 1994), CF, Last year: 1-tie.</strong></p>
<p id="0qehI6">You know his story. </p>
<p id="3Qf0ZH">He got his first look at the majors last year. He played four games before breaking a bone in his wrist. In the minors, he hit .299/.390/.406, with 19 steals. We are expecting some power to show up, but, until then, I’m happy with his ability to get on base and his speed. </p>
<p id="Ux76i0">Anthony is 23, but he’s only had 301 games in the Minors. It would be good if he could be injury free for a year. </p>
<p id="umV1k2">He, <span>Teoscar Hernandez</span>, <span>Dalton Pompey</span> and Dwight Smith Jr will all be competing to be the one called up if one of our major league outfielders get hurt. </p>
<p id="Eb4xN0"><strong>2. Bo Bichette, age 19 (DOB March 5, 1998), IF, Last year: 9.</strong></p>
<p id="DCtNN5">Bo’s second pro season went as well as his first. He hit .362/.423/.564 splitting time between Lansing and Dunedin with 14 home runs. </p>
<p id="WSbTk8">Bo is on everyone’s list of Top 100 <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb-minors-prospects">MLB prospects</a>, 8th on Baseball America’s, 14th on MLB’s and 19th on Baseball Prospectus. </p>
<p id="20BNiy">About the only question is can he stay at short. Some think he’ll have to move to second, but if he continues to hit as well as he has, we’ll be ok with a little less than terrific range. He has been working at his defense. It might come down to which position is open when it is time to call him up. </p>
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<p id="oQGJHU"><strong>1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., age 18 (DOB March 16, 1999), 3B (?), Last year: 1-Tie.</strong></p>
<p id="PQ44YR">I’m not going to tell you anything new about Vlad. </p>
<p id="8B5l7F">He hit .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs, splitting time between Lansing and Dunedin last year. </p>
<p id="X5lnJj">He’s 3rd on Baseball America’s and MLB’s top 100 prospects list and 4th on Baseball Prospectus. They all grade him at an 80 for hit tools. </p>
<p id="JCKTWc">There are only a couple of questions about Vlad:</p>
<p id="z0VcDB">Will he play third in the majors? It might depend on whether <span>Josh Donaldson</span> is still with the team. Vlad might end up in the outfield. He could end up playing any corner spot. I’d bet he’d be a better DH than <span>Kendrys Morales</span> this year, but that won’t happen. </p>
<p id="AHnUNE">When will we see him in Toronto?</p>
<p id="afWScf">I’d be very surprised if we don’t see him before the end of the 2019 season. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him in September this year.</p>
<p id="HzMt25">Will he be better than his dad?</p>
<p id="OIBUjH">Well, his dad is in the Hall of Fame. Betting an 18 year old to have a better career than a Hall of Famer is a silly thing to do. But, Vlad Jr looks to have a better eye at the plate than dad had. And he seems to have his father’s power. But, his dad played 16 years and had 449 home runs, so if you made me bet, I’d take dad. </p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/16/17020460/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-1-4Tom Dakers2018-02-14T11:38:30-05:002018-02-14T11:38:30-05:00The 2018 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 5-8
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<p>A pair of first round picks, a pair of picks from the teens.</p> <p id="pfGL2z">The penultimate post in the countdown to the top of the 2018 BBB Top 40. The suspense is palpable; just who exactly will be #1? </p>
<p id="RGpswf">2018: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/12/17003942/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-9-12">9-1</a>2 | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/9/16970936/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-13-16"><strong>13-16</strong></a><strong> </strong>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/7/16984128/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-17-20"><strong>17-20</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/5/16876854/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25"><strong>21-25 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/2/16957320/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30"><strong>26-30</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/31/16930372/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35"><strong>31-35</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/29/16943880/2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40"><strong>36-40</strong></a></p>
<p id="SGO1RE">2017: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index"><strong>Top 40 Index</strong></a></p>
<h5 id="0we8zj">8. T.J. Zeuch, RHP, age 22 (DOB: 8/1/1995), last year: 8</h5>
<p id="rMwioJ">Zeuch treads water, holding at the #8 ranking after a year with significant positives and negatives. Skipping low-A (other than a quick two start cameo to finish 2016), he got off to a good start in Dunedin over the first two months. He was a little more hittable than one would want and his strikeout rate was just okay, but he showed flashes of dominance during which hitters would pound ball after ball into the ground.</p>
<p id="gX3XI2">He seemed to be hitting his stride in May, working into the 6th and 7th inning consistently, but then missed the better part of three months to injury. This has been a continuing theme going back to his college years, though he fortunately had no major arm injuries. He did come back to make a couple of starts at the end of the year, and a decent stint in the AFL. </p>
<p id="c36uki">At his best, Zeuch’s fastball plays up from the low-90s velocity where he usually sits due to movement and the natural plane he gets. He’s got three secondaries in a slider, curve and change-up; none are consistent true weapons, but the breaking balls in particular will flash plus and get swings-and-misses. If he fulfills his potential, Zeuch should be a quality mid-to-backend starter with a ground ball profile, likely reaching The Show in 2019 (again, if things go well). At times he’ll dominate, at times his stuff will flatten out and he’s get hit.</p>
<h5 id="5kVZqd">7. Logan Warmoth, SS, age 22 (DOB: 9/6/1995), last year: junior at University of North Carolina</h5>
<p id="MzAGeR">Few players did more to help their draft stock last spring, as Warmoth vaulted from top 2-4 rounds consideration into the back of the first round in a weak year for collegiate middle infielders. The scouting reports suggested a good all-around player who should stick somewhere on the middle infield, but one who did not really have any standout tools. That started to change over the course of his junior year, with conviction that he would hit.</p>
<p id="t4jRdN">And that will likely determine whether he’s the next <span>Russ Adams</span> (2002 1st rounder out of the same school) or the next <span>Aaron Hill</span> (2003 1st rounder out of LSU). And particularly the early career version of Hill who sprayed the ball around opposed to later iteration who tapped into some power but also turned into a pop-up machine. From 2005-07, Hill hit .287/.341/.415 (98 wRC+), I think that’s the offensive profile to expect if Warmoth works out. If he could be a fringey defender at SS or a solid to good defender at 2B, that would make him an average regular. </p>
<p id="EdCQtD">So far, mostly so good, with decent but not overwhelming performance in Vancouver as he posted a .306/.356/.419 line in 174 PA. A strong average, but pretty empty as he didn’t walk much or hit for much power, but put the ball in play. It will be interesting to see where he starts 2018, as Dunedin makes sense to give him a real test, but that could depend on what happens above. Regardless, ideally he would make it to AA by the end of the year.</p>
<p id="5yUsXe">One thing that bugs me: the track record of premium hitting prospects from UNC in pro ball is pretty dismal. Prior to 2017, four have been drafted in the first round this century. Russ Adams didn’t hit. <span>Dustin Ackley</span> was a bust. <span>Levi Michael</span> hasn’t hit, and <span>Colin Moran</span> has been disappointed (prior to perhaps reinventing himself recently). Then again, I was skeptical <span>Trea Turner</span> who would and he’s shot the lights out.</p>
<h5 id="ZNPRAT">6. <span>Ryan Borucki</span>, LHP, age 24 on Opening Day (DOB: 3/31/1994), last year: 16</h5>
<p id="GmZ4Zf">In a year of disappointing seasons for top pitching prospects, <span>Borucki</span> was the notable exception as he aced two levels to finish 2017 three rungs up from where he finished 2016, and on the cusp of the big leagues. Statistically, he did everything one could want, posted a 2.93 ERA in 150.1 inning across the three levels, striking out over a batter an inning while limiting free passes, and managing contact.</p>
<p id="eKnV54">Despite all that, Borucki is flying somewhat under the radar, at least from a “national” perspective, as his name has not shown up on any major top 100 lists. But consider, a lefty who: finished the season in AAA, sits comfortably in the low/mid 90s with his fastball and will tickle 96-97 from time to time, has a plus secondary in his change-up and at least a usable breaking ball (that gets a fair amount of swings and misses), and who throws strikes. At the end of the day top 100 lists don’t really matter, but that’s the profile of a potential mid-rotation starter, who could be MLB ready as soon as the second half of 2018. Personally, I’m quite high on him.</p>
<p id="A9T9on">Of course, there’s good reason for the maxim that if you want to develop a starting pitcher, draft 10 of them. The biggest risk factor for Borucki is probably health, as his progress over his first four professional seasons was slowed by a variety of injuries, including Tommy John surgery from an injury in his senior year of high school that dropped him down boards and allowed the Jays to take a flyer and sign him in the 15th round with slots savings. But he’s pitched two full, mostly injury free years in a row, and with the exception of April 2016 has always performed well when on the mound. </p>
<p id="T1frJF">There’s a lot to like here.</p>
<h5 id="PIzEmC">5. <span>Danny Jansen</span>, C, age 22 (DOB: 4/15/1995), last year: 28</h5>
<p id="osCaCO">What a difference a pair of glasses apparently makes to hitting a baseball. Since being drafted in 2013, <span>Jansen</span> has built a solid defensive reputation, moved aggressively despite considerable time lost to various injuries, demonstrated strong plate discipline, but hadn’t actually hit since 2014 in Bluefield. </p>
<p id="rw6xRi">That was the critical missing link, until a solid Fall League in 2016. And until he laid waste to FSL pitching to start 2017, continued to hit in New Hampshire in the summer, and then finished up by clobbering AAA for good measure. Overall, .323/.400/.484, with perhaps the most impressive part being the strikeout rate under 10%. That’ll play.</p>
<p id="QFF9MR">If the underlying hitting ability is anything close to 2017, Jansen is a potential star. But the beautiful part is, if he’s solid defensively behind the plate, he doesn’t have to hit much at all to be an average regular especially given his ability to control the strike zone. Steamer’s forecast of .254/.317/.390 (7.5% walk rate, 14% strike out rate, 87 wRC+) strikes me as a plausible offensive profile (over time). That would make him an average regular, and there’s upside from there. The biggest risk at this point is really the ability to stay healthy. </p>
<p id="U2eOII">In the meantime, Jansen should start back at AAA, and we’ll see how the league adjusts to him having seen him now. It’s axiomatic that catchers take a lot of time to develop, and with <span>Russell Martin</span> around for two years, the Jays have the luxury of not needing to rush him. Jansen has seemingly overcome astigmatism, but now a much more daunting task awaits: can he now overcome the wretched curse of being the Catcher of the Future?</p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/14/16848420/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-5-8Matt W2018-02-12T14:43:51-05:002018-02-12T14:43:51-05:00The 2018 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 9-12
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<img alt="Top 40 Prospects" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lsTkSH9ssGm6YwKWEYU-C_2OChI=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58667367/top40.0.jpg" />
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<p id="zsTFlH">As we get closer to the top of the list we have a couple of long time members of our top 40 lists, both who have dropped a few spots and a couple of new members of the organization. </p>
<p id="pfGL2z">2018: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/9/16970936/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-13-16"><strong>13-16</strong></a><strong> </strong>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/7/16984128/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-17-20"><strong>17-20</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/5/16876854/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25"><strong>21-25 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/2/16957320/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30"><strong>26-30</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/31/16930372/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35"><strong>31-35</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/29/16943880/2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40"><strong>36-40</strong></a></p>
<p id="wry8nr">2017: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index"><strong>Top 40 Index</strong></a></p>
<p id="Q4qn9B"><strong>12. </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/254093/richard-urena?_ga=2.147809392.692415422.1518293320-346464035.1512412584"><strong>Richard Urena</strong></a><strong>, SS, age 21 (DOB: Feb 26, 1996), last year: 4</strong><strong>th</strong><strong>. </strong></p>
<p id="u2sIjm"><span>Richard Urena</span> didn’t have a great 2017 season, hitting just .247/.286/.359, with 5 home runs in 129 games in New Hampshire, but he still got a callup to the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a>. There, despite a hot start (.324/.395/.471 in his first 7 games), he didn’t do well. He had 75 major league PA, hitting .206/.270/.309 with 1 home run. </p>
<p id="L9fIgH">He’s still young, he was young for Double-A. But, I would have felt a lot better if the power we’ve been expecting started to show. </p>
<p id="r5vifi">Defensively, he looks smooth in the field, he didn’t look out of place in Toronto. He made a couple of errors, but the .974 fielding average puts him right at league average. </p>
<p id="TrMnsy">2018 will be an important year for Urena. He’s already been passed on our list by fellow shortstops Bo Bichette and Logan Warmoth. He needs a good season to regain some of his ‘prospect luster’. </p>
<p id="njskzi">He’s inconsistent (I guess that’s the best word), he can look great for a few days (I saw him in Lansing and he was terrific), with a quick bat, and he’ll line the ball all over the place. Then he’ll have a couple of weeks of looking terrible. But then he is young, and he’s moved up the ladder quickly. It would be nice to see him play a season at Buffalo to polish out the rough edges and find some consistency. </p>
<p id="sPFq5I"><strong>11. Eric Pardinho, </strong><strong>RHP, age 17 (DOB: January 5, 2001), Last year: He wasn’t a millionaire, this year, before he was 17 he was a millionaire). </strong></p>
<p id="DpFPrV">There we go, a DOB year that starts with a 2. I’m starting to think that maybe I’m too old for a MLB career. </p>
<p id="uZGMF0">Back in June the Jays signed Pardinho to a $1.4 million contract. Can you imagine signing something giving you over a million dollars at age 16? Of course, could you imagine being able to throw a ball 94 MPH at age 16? </p>
<p id="Et3m8d">That’s the biggest contract ever for a Brazilian international free agent. You might remember <span>Yan Gomes</span> was the first Brazilian to make it to the majors. Since then, there have been 7 others make the majors. </p>
<p id="ob7ZvX">He isn’t a big guy (5’10”, listed at 155). I don’t imagine that he’ll add much height, but he should add muscle. <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/pardinho-becoming-face-of-baseball-from-brazil/c-213253022">Jesse Sanchez at MLB.com wrote this</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p id="jA1Dgk">There’s a lot to like about Pardinho. His fastball has touched 95 mph, but it usually hovers in the 90-to-93-mph range. He also throws a curveball, slider and changeup. He’s impressed scouts with his advanced approach on the mound and experience against top competition. That said, some scouts have expressed some concern about his overall upside and projectability given his smaller frame.</p></blockquote>
<p id="Q9jtuX">I guess, like <span>Marcus Stroman</span>, we are going to hear a lot about whether he should be a starter or if with his lack of size, he would be in the bullpen, but we have several years to decide.</p>
<p id="zfZv53">Eric gets the 11th spot on our list totally on the strength of scouting reports, it will be nice to see some numbers once he starts playing pro ball.</p>
<p id="FeD8Vq"><strong>10. Thomas Pannone, age 23 (DOB: April 28, 1994), LHP, last year: In Cleveland’s organization.</strong></p>
<p id="8pjJfj">We liberated Pannone from Cleveland, in the trade for <span>Joe Smith</span> on July 31st last year. I do want to mention that, when we traded for him, he was pitching for the Akron RubberDucks. That’s the team previously known as the Akron Mighty Rubber Ducks. </p>
<p id="f3BRWb">In 2017, Thomas made 5 starts in Lynchburg, Cleveland’s high A team, putting up a 0 ERA, with 10 hits, 7 walks and 39 strikeouts in 27.2 innings. </p>
<p id="L7Dy0m">Moved up to Akron, he made 14 starts, had a 2.62 ERA. In 82 innings, he allowed 67 hits, 36 walks with 81 strikeouts. He finished the season with 6 starts in New Hampshire, with a 3.63 ERA. In 34.2 innings, 31 hits, 8 walks and 29 strikeouts. I’m a fan of pitchers who strikeout more than a batter an inning. </p>
<p id="eZCw32">Pannone was a 9th round pick from the 2013 draft out of College of Southern Nevada. He isn’t a big guy, listed at 6’ and 195 lbs. He throws a low-90’s fastball, a good curve and a changeup. </p>
<p id="q2CD78">I’d imagine he’ll start 2018 in Buffalo and be one of a handful of guys who could get a call up if there is an injury. I’m interested to see him this spring. </p>
<p id="cd4dRn"><strong>9.</strong> <strong>Sean Reid-Foley, age 22 (DOB: August 30th, 1995), RHP, last year: 3rd.</strong></p>
<p id="HTNdO4">Another of last year’s top 5 who had a rather disappointing 2017. </p>
<p id="84zZxc">Sean had a 5.09 ERA in 27 starts for the Fisher Cats. In 132.2 innings, he allowed 145 hits, 22 home runs, 53 walks with 122 strikeouts. Not good, but then, it was his first look at Double-A. The 22 home runs against was a surprise. Up until last year, he never gave up more than 0.4 homers per 9 innings, then, last year, he was up to 1.5 per nine. He went from batters hitting .190 against him, in 2016 (at Lansing and Dunedin), to them hitting .278 against him in 2017 (at New Hampshire). His walk rate was up a tic (3.6/9 innings, from 3.0/9) and his strikeout rate was down a couple of tics (8.3/9 from 10.1).</p>
<p id="5cGXjI">I’m willing to give him a mulligan on the season, he was just 21 getting his first look at Double-A hitters, and he did set a new high in innings, which is good, just not much went right for him. </p>
<p id="r1F902">He throws mid-90s and occasionally high 90s. MLB.com pipeline says:</p>
<blockquote><p id="NKIjMT">Both his slider and his curveball, a pitch he picked up in 2016, have above-average potential, with the latter slightly ahead of the former, and his changeup, once fully developed, could give him a fourth average-or-better offering. Reid-Foley’s deceptive delivery and arm action make him particularly tough on right-handed hitters.</p></blockquote>
<p id="t0TyGr">A year ago he was on everyone’s top 100 <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb-minors-prospects">MLB prospects</a> list. This year not.</p>
<p id="NaNlwi">This is a big year for him. <span>J.A. Happ</span> and <span>Marco Estrada</span> are both likely to be gone in 2019. If the Jays fall out of the race they both could be trade deadline targets. The Jays have a handful of pitching prospects who could be looked on to fill their spots. A good season could jump Sean to the top of the list, a bad year could cause him to miss his chance. </p>
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/12/17003942/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-9-12Tom Dakers2018-02-09T14:20:02-05:002018-02-09T14:20:02-05:00The 2018 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 13-16
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<img alt="Top 40 Prospects" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/37H82bEljcb7pwvq1W1yWbG_7aQ=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58640873/top40.0.jpg" />
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<p id="SZgT7V">Moving towards the top of the list, we have a very recent newcomer to the system, a pair of catchers, and a righty looking to rebound in 2018.</p>
<p id="pfGL2z">2018: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/7/16984128/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-17-20">17-20</a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/5/16876854/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25"><strong>21-25 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/2/16957320/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30"><strong>26-30</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/31/16930372/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35"><strong>31-35</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/29/16943880/2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40"><strong>36-40</strong></a></p>
<p id="FEM8XB">2017: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index"><strong>Top 40 Index</strong></a></p>
<h5 id="vDEgJv">16. <span>Taylor Guerrieri</span>, RHP, age 25 (DOB: 12/1/1992), last year: in Tampa’s system</h5>
<p id="aC8zFY">Guerrieri was claimed off waivers from Tampa back in November so this is his first appearance in the BBB rankings, and regardless of what the future portends, it will also be his last. The 24th overall pick in the 2011 draft signed for $1.6-million, and had a very successful start in professional ball in 2012-13 that had him on multiple top 100 lists before an injury that required Tommy John surgery.</p>
<p id="cg09K8">That, and a suspension for a “drug of abuse“ essentially wiped out his 2014 season. A strong 2015 got him on the 40-man, and in 2016 he threw 146 innings in AA though the results were more average (3.76 ERA, 46/89 BB/K). Then another UCL injury derailed his career, this time a sprain during his second start of 2017 that didn’t require surgery, but cost him the rest of the season, though rehab and platelet rich injections apparently have him healthy now.</p>
<p id="I7vVMb">While he was a flamethrower out of high school with the ability to hit the mid-90s on his fastball, Guerrieri doesn’t have that raw stuff anymore, pitching in the low 90s with his curve as his primary offspeed pitch in a four pitch mix. That could have him profile as a quality backend starter (or perhaps mid-rotation if everything clicked), though the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> may <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/guerrieri-rekindle-promising-career-blue-jays/">consider using him out of the bullpen</a>. There’s some similarities to <span>Joe Biagini</span> in that respect, but the most important thing in 2017 will be staying healthy.</p>
<h5 id="p6Gef0">15. <span>Reese McGuire</span>, C, age 23 on Opening Day (DOB: 3/2/1994), last year: 13</h5>
<p id="Wy6Ht3"><span>McGuire</span>’s first full season with the Blue Jays was a tale of two months. In April, he put up the anemic batting line that has typified his career thus far (and basically didn’t hit at all outside of three games). Then he missed over two months, working his way back to New Hampshire in early August, and hit .324/.411/.594 in 64 PA to end the season. It’s just one month of course, but it’s a level of thunder in his bat he’s never really shown as a pro.</p>
<p id="Zhnglj">The calling card for McGuire is his substantial ability behind the plate, which got him drafted 14th overall in 2013. Even if his bat never develops further, that should allow him to carve out a MLB career, and potentially a long one as a prototypical defensively oriented backup. </p>
<p id="SOSaGA">Offensively, he’s shown a strong ability to control the strike zone, with high walk rates yet low strikeout rates in the low-to-mid teens. What has been lacking is the production on balls in play throughout his career, though some power finally showed up in August (and that’s harder to fake than if it had been driven by a high BABIP). </p>
<p id="YJ5vJw">That said, McGuire is still very young, and it’s often said the considerable demands of learning the position cause catchers to develop more slowly offensively. At worst, he’s a high ceiling/low upside player; given the pedigree, it’s not out out of the question there’s more upside in the bat, and the bar for hitting as a regular catcher is not high to begin with. The other thing to keep an eye on his ability to stay on the field, as he’s missed time in both years and only totaled 137 games.</p>
<h5 id="mfpVsz">14. Riley Adams, C, age 21 (DOB: 6/26/1996), last year: junior at University of San Diego</h5>
<p id="9GTC7K">Adams was drafted this past June by the Jays 99th overall in the 3rd round, generally seen as good value pick as a consensus top 100 talent. Assigned to Vancouver, he picked up right where he left off in college, posting a .305/.376/.438 line in 227 PA. It was bolstered by a .391 BABIP, but it was a good debut and he displayed gap/doubles power and some swing-and-miss, but kept the strikeout rate manageable.</p>
<p id="W5JNQe">In many ways, Adams is the opposite of McGuire one spot behind him, as his offensive abilities got him drafted where he did and whether he a stick behind the plate is a big question mark. At 6’5”, he’s large for the position, and has a lot of work to do as a receiver. Undoubtedly, the Jays will give him every opportunity to stay behind the plate, which in 2018 should be in Lansing. The good news is, even if he has to move off, he’s plenty athletic enough for an outfield corner, and the bat profiles there. Adams has an unconventional stance, with a deep crouch apparently modeled after fellow Torero Kris Bryant.</p>
<h5 id="P47woV">13. Justin Maese, RHP, age 21 (DOB: 10/24/1996), last year: 11</h5>
<p id="PFL3E2">Last year I thought Maese got a bit of a raw deal in these rankings, falling a couple spots after a quite successful year. This year conversely, he may have caught a break only falling a couple spots after a largely lost year in which he missed almost all the season after Memorial Day. Prior to that when he did take the mound, he was quite inconsistent and didn’t take the next step forward.</p>
<p id="sVXGrH">When he was on, his sinker/slider could dominate, getting batters to roll over and plenty of swings-and-misses. But too often he left them around the plate and they got squared up for hard hit quality contact, which showed up in his 4.84 ERA. His change-up remains a work in progress as a third pitch, and lefties were much more successful against him. That said, he seemed to be really finding his stride in May before going on the disabled list.</p>
<p id="YrkJGZ">2018 is going to be a very important year for Maese. His sinker is the kind of pitch that an take over a game, and he’s shown the ability to be an inning eating, midrotation/backend starter who’s a ground machine. But he needs to improve his command of the fastball and refine his slider. Absent improved consistency or a true three pith mix, he’s probably destined for the bullpen. But the raw ingredients are very intriguing.</p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/9/16970936/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-13-16Matt W2018-02-07T11:33:41-05:002018-02-07T11:33:41-05:00The 2018 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 17-20
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<img alt="Top 40 Prospects" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0BeeQdtZPEPvQErmmdyhspO2l1I=/0x0:1100x733/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58607643/top40.0.jpg" />
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<p>Two former 3rd round draft pick pitchers and two former top 10 prospects who had disappointing seasons. </p> <p id="QLBWan">We decided to go through the top 20 in groups of four at a time. That will carry us through the next couple of weeks and then Matt and I will each post on a few of our favorite ‘just missed outs’ and Matt will highlight some of our over 25 minor leaguers. </p>
<p id="pfGL2z">2018: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/5/16876854/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-21-25"><strong>21-25 </strong></a>| <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/2/16957320/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-26-30"><strong>26-30</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/31/16930372/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-31-35"><strong>31-35</strong></a> | <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/1/29/16943880/2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-36-40"><strong>36-40</strong></a></p>
<p id="PftZSM">2017: <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/2/1/14469948/2017-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospect-index"><strong>Top 40 Index</strong></a></p>
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<p id="a7qlHU"><strong>20. Patrick Murphy, RHP, 22 (DOB:June 10, 1995), Last year: 21st. </strong></p>
<p id="phWaaQ">Patrick was our 3rd round draft choice, back in 2013. He was coming off of Tommy John surgery when we drafted him, which is not as big a deal as it once was, pitchers generally come back as good as new, after missing a year. For Patrick, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-prospect-murphy-hopes-to-get-injury-plagued-career-back-on-track/">that didn’t happen</a>. </p>
<blockquote><p id="TFl159">“I knew I wasn’t pitching in 2013 but after I rehabbed that year I was having numbness in my arm and in my hand when I’d throw, more than a year and a half after the TJ [surgery],” he says. “We couldn’t figure out what it was, so I didn’t pitch that year. Then in the middle of the summer we figured out that one of my ribs was pinching a nerve, so I had a rib removed.”</p></blockquote>
<p id="AA5ZuF">He ended up missing most of 2014 and all of 2015.</p>
<p id="ARPHbM">In 2016, Murphy pitched in 21 games, had a 3.97 ERA, between time in Lansing and Vancouver, with 37 walks and 68 strikeouts in 90.2 innings. Considering he had pitched all of 4 innings the previous 3 years, it wasn’t bad.</p>
<p id="hi6KmY">This past year, he started in Lansing, and hit the DL 2 weeks after the start of the season. He pitched through May, then back on the DL in early June. After a 3 game rehab stint in the GCL, he was back up to Lansing and then finished the season up in Dunedin. </p>
<p id="QBk0uC">In total he pitched in 20 games, 19 starts. He had a 3.04 ERA in 106.2 innings, with 37 walks and 77 strikeouts. </p>
<p id="6WS4Na">Murphy is a big guy, 6’4”, 220. And now that he’s put together two, relatively, injury free seasons we can start looking at him to move up the ladder. He can throw hard, I saw reports of him hitting 97 on the radar guns, but it seems he sits 94-95 normally. He has a very good curve (everyone says it is his best pitch) and he is working on a changeup like every young pitcher in the organization. </p>
<p id="Me8Pd2">It would be nice to see him get up to Double A this year, and getting his innings built up. All going well he could end up being the type of guy who could eat a bunch a lot of innings for us in the middle of our rotation. </p>
<p id="j5Tvp3"><strong>19. Zach Jackson, RHP, 23 (DOB: December 25, 1994), last year: 22nd.</strong></p>
<p id="ImlZuB">I didn’t notice that Zach and Patrick were back-to-back on our lists last year too, until just now. </p>
<p id="9ng9p7">Zach, like Patrick, was a third pick, but in 2016, three years after Patrick. Thankfully Zach doesn’t have the same injury history.</p>
<p id="BXYTao">In his second year in pro ball, he started the year in Lansing. In 15 games out of the bullpen, he had a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings. He allowed 13 hits, 2 homers, 8 walks with 25 strikeouts.</p>
<p id="Rp0kRH">Moved up to Dunedin, he pitched in 27 games, 31 innings. He allowed 19 hits, 0 home runs, 18 walks and 43 strikeouts. </p>
<p id="BMZpDp">I tend to write off relievers in the lower minors, but when a guy strikes out 12 guys per 9 innings, that kind of stands out. His out pitch is a ‘hammer’ curve, which perfect score called the best college curve in the 2016 draft. </p>
<p id="bD9Iqb">I kind of expected him to move further up the ladder last year, but it would be good to see him start next season in New Hampshire and hopefully move up to Buffalo, setting himself up to be a possible late season call up to Toronto. </p>
<p id="lQgIYk"><strong>18. Lourdes Gurriel, IF, age 24 (Oct 19, 1993), last year: 6th.</strong></p>
<p id="mJ6C6n">You know the story as well as I do. Lourdes was one of the top rated international free agents in 2016. Baseball America listed him as the 73 best prospect in baseball before the 2017 season. His brother earned a World Series ring with the Astros last year. </p>
<p id="bmXKdi">We had hope that Lourdes would become a ‘super utility’ player with the Jays in a hurry. And then, he played in our minor league system. I guess the way to put it is “his numbers were disappointing”.</p>
<p id="Ryx2Md">Lourdes started the year in Dunedin, I think in a effort to start him in a warm weather environment. Coming from Cuba and starting somewhere that could be cold in the spring might be tough on the system. He hit .197/.217/.258 with 1 homer, 1 steal, 2 walks and 13 strikeouts in 18 games. That earned him a promotion to New Hampshire. He hit slightly better there: .241/.286/.371 with 4 homers, 3 steals, 12 walks and 43 strikeouts in 46 games. We expected much better. </p>
<p id="A2FEvi">He did have a better time in the Arizona Fall League. .291/.309/.494 with 3 homers, 1 walk and 11 strikeouts, but, considering his resume from Cuba and considering he was older than his competition, we expected more. </p>
<p id="IxVJN9">Which is why he’s tumbled so far down our list (in interest of full disclosure, Matt had him further down the list, but we settled for this spot). I still think he could make it as a utility player in the majors, but with Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte both being added to the Jays, the path to a major league job got a little more complicated than it was when Goins and Barney owned those roster spots. </p>
<p id="OqXAuU">He should be able to hit better than last year, but if he wants to be on this list again next year (or, more if he wants to have a place in the Jays future), he’s going to have to show us the player we thought he’d be back when we signed him. </p>
<p id="Wmy2xt"><strong>17. Rowdy Tellez, 1B, age 22 (March 16, 1995), last year: 5th.</strong></p>
<p id="yyL9gi">And two others, who were back-to-back last year, are back-to-back this year, but much further down the list.</p>
<p id="48IiK1">Speaking of disappointing 2017 seasons, many of us figured Rowdy would be taking the first base job away from Justin Smoak before the season ended. When Rowdy started the Bisons’ season with a two-home run game on opening day, we figured he’d have Smoak’s job before the end of April. </p>
<p id="xxQtiz">Who would have thought that he’d only hit 4 more homers all season? </p>
<p id="N2B8Vq">Rowdy would go on to hit .222/.295/.333, with 6 home runs, 47 walks and 94 strikeouts in 122 Triple A games. </p>
<p id="uE3wNw">So, we could look at 2017 as a bump in the road. I mean, Tellez hit .297/.387/.530 with 23 homers, 63 walks and 92 strikeouts in New Hampshire in 2016. All that power couldn’t have just disappeared, right? </p>
<p id="fkQ9MD">This is a big year for Rowdy. He’s still just 22 (23 at the start of the season). There is no reason he can’t bounce back. But, if he doesn’t, he’ll tumble far more than 12 spots down the list. </p>
<p id="0NHWrL">It seems like Smoak and Rowdy were part of a bad movie where both in a Chinese restaurant, Smoak talking about how great it was when he was in the minors and he had no pressure, Rowdy talking about how great it would be in the majors. Then some older woman in the back room, with a knowing smile on her face, somehow arranges to switch them. This year we get to see if we are at the end of the movie, where things go back to the way they were.</p>
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https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/2/7/16984128/the-2018-bluebird-banter-top-40-prospects-17-20Tom Dakers